Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019


Torch Tiger
 Share

Recommended Posts

20 hours ago, ncforecaster89 said:

Actually, the NHC best track committee reduced the landfall intensity to 95 kt in MA, in their reanalysis.  It's conceivable it was still a Cat 3 at landfall, but it has officially been reanalyzed to an upper-end Cat 2...borderline 3.  

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/UShurrs_detailed.html

I understand. JMO, not that it is correct.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

I believe since ENSO will be transitioning from weak El Nino state to a neutral and then weak La Nina state throughout the hurricane season, we could see a slow August and then a large ramp up from the end of August through November.  I believe the East Coast is at risk, as the potential for near home activity is higher than average.  Especially with a rather dry MDR and the tropical Atlantic Ocean west of 60W longitude, the favored areas for significant tropical cyclone activity of Major Hurricanes category three or higher landfalls looks to be NC, SC, FL Gulf of Mexico and parts of the Mid-Atlantic states.  I believe there will be a threatening major potentially category four hurricane making landfall on the Northeastern Us sometime late August through Labor Day into the first few weeks of September given the highly warm western Atlantic Ocean right now and expected throughout the rest of the season, as oceanic temps reach the low-80s off the Cape and Islands by the end of AUG.  A situation in which a cold front stall of the NC coastline into the Bahamas leads to a surface low developing in the Bahamas region and then heading up the East Coast, peaking as a major cat four hurricanes and making landfall on the SNE south coast is something I see.  A stronger version of Hurricane Bob 1991, looks like a threat. 

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Invest 94L is the system east of the central Bahamas by about 90-104 miles.  It is developing a better-defined center of circulation in the lower levels.  Convection is getting better organized and it is over very high SSTs and high OHC.  Also of note, the shear is still too high for rapid development, but the SHIPS diagnostic shear forecast is expected to be favorable for a three day period over 29.5+C water temperatures.  Huge potential here, we need to watch carefully.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I believe since ENSO will be transitioning from weak El Nino state to a neutral and then weak La Nina state throughout the hurricane season, we could see a slow August and then a large ramp up from the end of August through November.  I believe the East Coast is at risk, as the potential for near home activity is higher than average.  Especially with a rather dry MDR and the tropical Atlantic Ocean west of 60W longitude, the favored areas for significant tropical cyclone activity of Major Hurricanes category three or higher landfalls looks to be NC, SC, FL Gulf of Mexico and parts of the Mid-Atlantic states.  I believe there will be a threatening major potentially category four hurricane making landfall on the Northeastern Us sometime late August through Labor Day into the first few weeks of September given the highly warm western Atlantic Ocean right now and expected throughout the rest of the season, as oceanic temps reach the low-80s off the Cape and Islands by the end of AUG.  A situation in which a cold front stall of the NC coastline into the Bahamas leads to a surface low developing in the Bahamas region and then heading up the East Coast, peaking as a major cat four hurricanes and making landfall on the SNE south coast is something I see.  A stronger version of Hurricane Bob 1991, looks like a threat. 

I don't believe New England has ever had a cat 4 strike. Maybe 1635. Maybe.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I don't believe New England has ever had a cat 4 strike. Maybe 1635. Maybe.

Oh, I am not saying they have, just now with the way the Oceans are, the coastline south of SNE coast is getting warmer on average, this season it is quite warm already and we have yet to reach climo peak.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Oh, I am not saying they have, just now with the way the Oceans are, the coastline south of SNE coast is getting warmer on average, this season it is quite warm already and we have yet to reach climo peak.

Maybe, but how deep does that warm water go? Any large storm will upwell cold water in front of it. A high end cat 3, low end 4 into SNE would require a truly extraordinary, if not perfect series of events. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

43 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Maybe, but how deep does that warm water go? Any large storm will upwell cold water in front of it. A high end cat 3, low end 4 into SNE would require a truly extraordinary, if not perfect series of events. 

Perfection happens, just not enough for odds to favor such an event.  However, you got to admit, we are due for a big hurricane event.  The deepest waters are essentially in the western Caribbean Sea and the waters just north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola in the Puerto Rico Trench where depths are nearly 28,000 feet below the surface of the ocean.  There are warm enough waters in the Gulf Stream at a fairly deep depth.  However, the waters south of the South Shore of New England, and the Islands of Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard are indeed quite shallow, however, for the most part, there are exceptions like Tropical Storm Jose, but for the most part, the forward speed of the hurricanes that reach SNE coastline, are too fast for upwelling to even be considered a negative action.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I believe since ENSO will be transitioning from weak El Nino state to a neutral and then weak La Nina state throughout the hurricane season, we could see a slow August and then a large ramp up from the end of August through November.  I believe the East Coast is at risk, as the potential for near home activity is higher than average.  Especially with a rather dry MDR and the tropical Atlantic Ocean west of 60W longitude, the favored areas for significant tropical cyclone activity of Major Hurricanes category three or higher landfalls looks to be NC, SC, FL Gulf of Mexico and parts of the Mid-Atlantic states.  I believe there will be a threatening major potentially category four hurricane making landfall on the Northeastern Us sometime late August through Labor Day into the first few weeks of September given the highly warm western Atlantic Ocean right now and expected throughout the rest of the season, as oceanic temps reach the low-80s off the Cape and Islands by the end of AUG.  A situation in which a cold front stall of the NC coastline into the Bahamas leads to a surface low developing in the Bahamas region and then heading up the East Coast, peaking as a major cat four hurricanes and making landfall on the SNE south coast is something I see.  A stronger version of Hurricane Bob 1991, looks like a threat. 

I will give you $100 if New England somehow gets directly hit with a hurricane by the end of the season. :p

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Dr. Dews said:

 

;)

Nice find. After seeing the damage in Harwich from a minor tornado, imagine the nightmare that will be New England when the next major cane comes roaring through. Hope the utilities have a big sinking fund and their disaster insurers have reinsurance. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, rimetree said:

What's interesting too is the frequency of storms that had direct impact on New England from the late 30s to the late 50s. Like 4 big hits in less than 20 years? If we went through another cycle like that, look out.

Yeah and that does not include the near-miss Carol ? In 53,  edouardesque, as well as the incredible flooding of Connie/Diane of '55

We've been pushing our luck 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, Hoth said:

Nice find. After seeing the damage in Harwich from a minor tornado, imagine the nightmare that will be New England when the next major cane comes roaring through. Hope the utilities have a big sinking fund and their disaster insurers have reinsurance. 

Bob was much worse on the Cape for most people.I was old enough to remember it but most 30-35 or younger have zero idea what a hurricane can do in NE. I was in the right eyewall about 1/2 mile where the roof was ripped off the hotel in E Fal. The gusts were 100 easy, maybe 120. You could hear the Microbursts and damage around you

 

 Bob came in two hours earlier than anticipated by the previous days forecasts, generally. A 4pm landfall would have destroyed coastal SE MA nearing high tide. Two hours,maybe 3 prevented a much worse hit.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, Dr. Dews said:

Bob was much worse on the Cape for most people.I was old enough to remember it but most 30-35 or younger have zero idea what a hurricane can do in NE. I was in the right eyewall about 1/2 mile where the roof was ripped off the hotel in E Fal. The gusts were 100 easy, maybe 120. You could hear the Microbursts and damage around you

 

 Bob came in two hours earlier than anticipated by the previous days forecasts, generally. A 4pm landfall would have destroyed coastal SE MA nearing high tide. Two hours,maybe 3 prevented a much worse hit.

Bob was historic for my local region..(the top part of Buzzards bay). We had a 12ft-20ft surge and many houses in the Swift Beach area were destroyed or swept completely out to sea. I can't imagine if it hit during peak high tide. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Measured 6.41" at my (then) Gardiner home, greatest calendar-day rain event I've recorded.  Bob was also the only TC of my experience in which the backside winds were essentially the same speed as frontside, though over 90% of the precip came before the switch.  PWM had a bit over 8" with several Cumberland County bridges blown out.  That was their biggest one-day rain until the October 1996 hybrid storm dumped 12" on them.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I recall bob in Raynham mass no big deal 

50 miles ese was a big deal 

what a very very long lull for SNE , I have completely dismissed the idea of a storm hitting the region it’s been ...a while 

foolishly I kno but there hasn’t been anything here close to wide spread 100mph gusts over area in so long 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...