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McDowell_Weather

April 2nd 2019 Possible Flizzard Discussion&Obs

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Just now, calculus1 said:

Brad P is talking about the possibilities.  Nothing too significant, but...

 

I like GSP'S morning afd it said to keep an eye on the forecast for the next 24 hrs for possible signfigant changes lol 

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40 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

That NAM tho! It’s ok to be in the bullseye of 7” inside of 12 hours, right??

yeah, wish i could believe it...nam shows around 5 or 6 inches here. Although the nam has a reputation of being too wet it's had somewhat of a dry bias this winter. Given the lack of model support for so much, looks like it very well could be back to it's old tricks. The second wettest model, euro, shows 0.60 along and southeast of  greenwood to rock hill. It's a clear outlier right now. 

 

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12 minutes ago, Lookout said:

yeah, wish i could believe it...nam shows around 5 or 6 inches here. Although the nam has a reputation of being too wet it's had somewhat of a dry bias this winter. Given the lack of model support for so much, looks like it very well could be back to it's old tricks. The second wettest model, euro, shows 0.60 along and southeast of  greenwood to rock hill. It's a clear outlier right now. 

 

I think we need to recall, though, that almost every event since Florence has trended wetter when it arrived. 

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I'm surprised there's not even a Hazardous Weather Outlook posted for this event right now.  There was this morning.  They typically mention a stiff breeze in the HWO, so the fact that we might get snowfall in April seems, at least, worth mentioning.

gvsRTMj.png

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24 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

The 18z Nam  dewpoint is running 10 degrees above actuals for this afternoon in the triad

Yeah this is something i've been watching all day. Temps are about right where they should be but the dewpoints are quite a bit lower than just about every model by a good 10 degrees to as much as 14 in a few spots.   If this holds it  could mean there could  be a bit quicker changeover.  This has more impact on ne ga than sc since the models have the changeover happening pretty fast there where as it changes over slower here. 

 

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If you take the GFS seriously, the joke is on you. It finally came in line with a more northwesterly track less than 24 hours out.

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Hehe...this died a quick death.  Even in their last gasps of winter the models couldnt figure it out inside of 72 hours.  Seriously, I hope somebody is recoding the s*$t out of some weather models this summer.  This was a horrible winter for man and models alike!

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2 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Hehe...this died a quick death.  Even in their last gasps of winter the models couldnt figure it out inside of 72 hours.  Seriously, I hope somebody is recoding the s*$t out of some weather models this summer.  This was a horrible winter for man and models alike!

Please take this to Banter

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Would be nice to see a few flakes flying.  I’m in southern Cabarrus and if anything some light accum on elevated surfaces. I remember last year we got a few early morning inches that were gone by noon! So anything this late is welcome.

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Well i've dropped nicely since sunset, down to 40.6 in Easley, still a ways to go. Plus, there'll be the obligitory 4-8 degree rise in temps when the clouds roll in so... 

Need the precip sheild 50 miles NW of current projections. Best chances here will be Laurens to Rock Hill to Gboro I think. 

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2 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Well i've dropped nicely since sunset, down to 40.6 in Easley, still a ways to go. Plus, there'll be the obligitory 4-8 degree rise in temps when the clouds roll in so... 

Need the precip sheild 50 miles NW of current projections. Best chances here will be Laurens to Rock Hill to Gboro I think. 

I’m only at 46, but with things trending E and S , who cares about temps here anyway!

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Hoping to get some gust to 50+ mph here tomorrow afternoon, wish I didnt have to work would be a good ride to Nags Head day.... the OBX might flirt with 60+ depending on how cranked up this storm gets....realistically we probably wont do much more than 40-45 this far inland though.

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22 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Hoping to get some gust to 50+ mph here tomorrow afternoon, wish I didnt have to work would be a good ride to Nags Head day.... the OBX might flirt with 60+ depending on how cranked up this storm gets....realistically we probably wont do much more than 40-45 this far inland though.

Bet it will be cranking at the bend up by Nags Head!

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