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Severe Weather April 3rd - 8th 2019


cheese007
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Very late moisture return into OK on Wednesday has me unenthused for anything besides an isolated hail/wind threat at this point. Northerly winds over the Gulf lingering all the way into Tuesday evening will make it impossible to get much Gulf moisture into the area. 

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Wind profiles on Wednesday are really incredible looking on the GFS and NAM (35-50kt effective shear juxtaposed to 300-400m2/s2 ESRH at 00z across much of western and southwestern OK), its unfortunate that only 54-58 surface dewpoints will exist across the region at that time, likewise it does appear that CI will actually occur (both at the triple point in NW OK/SW KS and at an isolated extent along the dryline in W OK) and that LCLs will be manageable given surface temps in the mid 60s... Big question is the degree of instability we can muster and the northward extent of relatively stronger instability and moisture, and storms ability to fend off CINh. Might be able to pull off an intense supercell or two (should be noted that the wind-profile will highly favor supercells with an impressive level of directional turning within nearly the entire column), especially along the dryline within the relatively stronger zone of instability. Albeit any such supercell would probably have a relatively short time period that it would be rooted to the PBL (i.e., able to produce tornadoes), owing to several factors, 1. The loss of diurnal heating (leading to more CINh), 2. The equatorward crashing cold front undercutting, 3. A relatively small spatial area of surface-based instability.

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Lol SPC with one of the smallest D2 slight risks I’ve seen. 

 

Its just going to be such a small window in space and time for any storm to have tornado potential. Still early in the season just not quite coming together yet.

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Wind profiles in the vicinity of the risk area strongly favor supercells (WSW to W in the upper levels and S to SE near the surface) and mid-level lapse rates will be quite steep. The biggest issue is boundary layer moisture, as even the most robust HRRR-based forecast soundings show relatively large T/Td spreads from the surface, right up to the mid-levels.

Given the wind profiles, last-minute arrival of marginal moisture and lingering SBCIN along the dryline (-100 to -200 J/kg at 00z Thursday), it is likely that any storms that do manage to form will probably remain fairly isolated. The issue is that the instability axis will be relatively narrow and storms will have a very short window to be near-surface based. Otherwise, the supercell/hail threat should predominantly from elevated storms. 

Forcing and upper level support look good as well, as the shortwave orientation and arrival time bode well for storm initiation shortly after peak heating.

While the setup could yield a tornado, if everything goes just right, the main story should be hail. The HREF/HRRR UH tracks are almost certainly indicative of hail, rather than low-level rotation, given such steep mid-level lapse rates and far from ideal boundary layer moisture content.

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Saturday looks like an MCS mess; so, it's hard to place anything. Upper levels are a total mess with VBV trouble. ECMWF is even messier than American guidance. Texas forecast soundings start with a long but nice Hodo. By afternoon though, it's as messy as a plate of spaghetti. 

Low levels surface to 700 mb have good turning. Trouble starts around 500 mb. Also the 200/300 mb levels have lighter and erratic winds run-to-run, not good. Instability should be there, iff no MCS washout. Chasers might be relegated to south end of MCS or redevelopment in an over-turned atmosphere. Nah.

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5 hours ago, David Reimer said:

Based off your tornado report I'm going to assume you did indeed go chasing :lol:

That I did. Wasn't expecting much, but I did manage to see a brief rope just north of Calvert today! All my pictures of the tornado suck (thanks old iPhone), so here's someone else's photo from basically the same viewpoint that doesn't suck.

https://twitter.com/arianaelena97/status/1114682945103593477

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