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bluewave

April 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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Looks like a storm system every few days with this fast flow spring gradient pattern.

 

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^^^

the good news with that is that we don't appear likely to be locked in a prolonged overcast/drizzly period that we sometimes see this time of year....

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A system will likely bring showers and perhaps some thundershowers tomorrow into Saturday. At present, most of the New York City area should see 0.25"-0.75" rain with some locally higher amounts.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around April 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.95°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño should persist into the first week in May in Region 3.4.

The SOI was -1.80 today. SOI variability has increased since the end of March.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.376.

The implied probability of a warmer than normal April is currently greater than 99%. There is also an implied 68% probability that April 2019 will wind up among the 10 warmest April cases on record and 39% probability that it will wind up among the 5 warmest April cases on record.

The 5 Warmest April Mean Temperatures were as follows:

1. 57.9°, 2010
2. 56.9°, 1941
3. 56.2°, 1981
4. 56.1°, 1921, 2002
5. 55.9°, 1969

On April 24, the MJO moved into Phase 3 at an amplitude of 2.453 (RMM). The amplitude was lower than the April 23-adjusted figure of 2.468.

Since 1974, there were four cases when the MJO reached an amplitude of 1.750 or above during Phase 2 during the April 20-30 period. The mean May 1-10 temperature was 58.8° vs. the 1981-2018 average of 60.2°. 75% of those cases were cooler than the 1981-2018 average. However, during May cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.50°C or above for the month, the May 1-10 temperature averaged 60.8°. Therefore, it is likely that the first 10 days of May will probably wind up with a mean temperature of 59.2°-61.2°.

Finally, the 12z ECMWF suggests the possibility of accumulating snow Saturday night or Sunday in Chicago. To date, Chicago has seen 47.0" snow for the 2018-19 season, which is 10.7" above normal. It also suggests that Milwaukee could pick up a moderate to significant snowfall. To date, Milwaukee has received 54.4" snow, which is 7.7" above normal.

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The last 5 days of April are averaging 54degs., or 3degs. BN.

Month to date is +3.9[56.1].      April should end at +2.8[55.8], or 6th Place.

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Another day with rain. Areas east of NYC have already set the new record for the most April days with measurable rainfall. Islip is closing in on a remarkable 20 days. The previous record was 15 days. BDR just tied its record of 16 days. NYC is just 2 from the record of 16.

ISP

1 2019 18 4
  1986 15 0
- 1964 15 0
  2004 14 0
- 1996 14 0
- 1989 14 0
- 1987 14 0
  2017 13 0
- 2011 13 0
- 2000 13 0
- 1990 13 0
- 1979 13 0
- 1967 13 0

BDR

1 2002 16 0
- 1950 16 0
  2019 16 4
- 1957 15 0
  2011 14 0
- 2000 14 0
- 1996 14 0
- 1994 14 0
- 1959 14 0
- 1955 14 0

 

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Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Some good lighting with the storm currently over Nassau . Storms to the sw are looking impressive 

Nice thunderstorm ongoing.  54 degrees. 

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500-2000 j/kg of elevated CAPE, with some moderate speed shear in the convecting layer and plenty of triggers.  So, it storms.

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Thunder and heavy rain  here now at 12:25pm, 56*     Short duration of 10mins.

I am CIK62, do not know why name changed.   Moderator please make display name CIK62

I am on new phone, probably is the reason.⁵

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Have to wonder if the NYC metro can make it into the marginal/slight risk not to far to our south and west as the warm front lifts north. Storms holding together pretty well so far as they move into the metro area.

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7 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Have to wonder if the NYC metro can make it into the marginal/slight risk not to far to our south and west as the warm front lifts north. Storms holding together pretty well so far as they move into the metro area.

Elevated storms almost never verify as severe unless via hail.  And while some of these storms are showing small hail sigs on radar, nothing severe.

It’s in the 50s with a stiff onshore wind. We’re not going to warm-sector.  Enjoy your non-severe boomers.  Philly gets the surface-based fun.

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Heavy thunderstorm came through earlier here in SW Suffolk. Only lasted a minute or two as it was racing NNE.

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Tor Warning in northern CT

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
231 PM EDT FRI APR 26 2019

The National Weather Service in Boston/Norton has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  West central Windham County in northern Connecticut...
  Northeastern Tolland County in northern Connecticut...

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