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bluewave

April 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Record high minimums around the area yesterday. Quite the subtropical warmth and moisture surge into the area with the near record  PWATS. Like a spring version of the recent summer record warm minimums and high dew points since 2015.

Yuck. The inference that we are still stuck in that loop is disturbing.

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19 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Already an early look at a 2018 summer repeat. Maybe this time the heat will match the humidity and give us the hottest summer ever (dews + temps).

The new Euro seasonal locks in the SE Ridge/WAR through early next fall. 

https://climate.copernicus.eu/charts/c3s_seasonal/c3s_seasonal_spatial_ecmf_2mtm_3m?facets=undefined&time=2019040100,2184,2019070100&type=ensm&area=area06

7E1AF8D8-F97A-412D-83D3-85D42D458261.png.3deeeffcf498563eba34bba30fb09ede.png

94E53509-74DF-49D4-9E2A-3DF9FB321680.png.87de06b225880e94028fc4f8731cad27.png

2C19E832-D504-42BD-B077-8E416B862B4D.png.e71477a9a2a21261b81ed63378313dbb.png

 

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Starting to clear out a bit here and up to 62.  

 

Sun angle now equivalent to Aug 29

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The HRRR model has been hinting as this the past few runs now. Pop up storms well ahead of the main line we will get during the overnight hours. Interesting to see how this plays out and how it affects the main line later tonight. 

EjGudld.jpg

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23 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

Holding in upper 50s low 60s along the south shore areas of the city. 62 at my station in Sheepshead Bay.

Yeah it’s up to 70 here in Williamsburg 

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15 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

Holding in upper 50s low 60s along the south shore areas of the city. 62 at my station in Sheepshead Bay.

66 here with hazy sunshine. Only 59 at LGA and 71 at the Park.(I suspect LGA has recovered since the last reading though) This time of yr is the Park's time to shine before LGA becomes the citys warm spot in the summer.

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26 minutes ago, dWave said:

66 here with hazy sunshine. Only 59 at LGA and 71 at the Park.(I suspect LGA has recovered since the last reading though) This time of yr is the Park's time to shine before LGA becomes the citys warm spot in the summer.

Yeah they're up to 68 now

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1 hour ago, doncat said:

First week of this April averaged about 6° warmer than last April...You can see the difference in growth this year vs last.

Yeah, even outside of the UHI some trees are beginning to leaf out. In Manhattan I see a few trees that are already fully leafed out.

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5 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Yuck. The inference that we are still stuck in that loop is disturbing.

This is definitely a trend at this point.  Warmth always comes with humidity now.  Years ago it was dry and crisp in April, same with September.

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4 hours ago, doncat said:

First week of this April averaged about 6° warmer than last April...You can see the difference in growth this year vs last.

Last April was frigid... the coldest in the CONUS in like 30 years.

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46 minutes ago, nzucker said:

Last April was frigid... the coldest in the CONUS in like 30 years.

Yes it was coldest at my station for 40 years of record.

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Predicting AN T's versus the 1981-2010 norms is a silly exercise.    Global Warming is a moving target, but the 30-Year Norm is out-of-date and static.

Just show me where in the hemisphere and when, the T's are expected to be BN.     

Of course most areas will be AN, this is the case for the last 400 months plus.

The temperatures will be what they will be---only the datum we score them against can be altered.

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Likely equating to warm and wet the next week or 2.  Hope we can salvage a few days in between like the past few saturdays.

 

test8.gif

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