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bluewave

April 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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3 hours ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

This weather is too humid 70 degrees with high humidity not the way I wanted my Saturday to be. It’s like hard to breathe with this air! 

We all want warm weather but this humidity is really annoying!

The dew point is 56 degrees with 49% humidity. This is nothing. 

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79 and clouds moving back in.  3 nice Saturdays in a row for the most part.  

 

 

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Mt.Holly and Upton ref Sunday/Monday.

Mt.Holly:

 

  .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... 
   
  For Sunday,  major low pressure system continues to lift northward  
  to our west reaching Lake Erie by late day. This will continue to  
  draw the warm front north through the area with the most 
  noticeable affect by afternoon being the increased dew points  
  as they will be in the 60s making it feel quite humid. Due to  
  the winds being more S/SE as opposed to SW this will tend to  
  keep low level moisture locked in through the boundary layer so  
  not expecting much sunshine. Conditions should be mainly cloudy  
  with lingering areas of drizzle and mist along with some  
  scattered showers as weak impulses aloft move through. It  
  shouldn`t be raining all day though and heavier showers and  
  storms should stay to our west through the daytime hours. Highs  
  will be mainly in the low to mid 70s except 60s across the  
  southern Poconos and NW NJ.  
   
  && 
   
  .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... 
   
  Overview... A mid-lvl trough and associated surface low will  
  lift just north of the area at the start of the long term  
  period, with the system`s cold front passing through the area  
  Monday morning. Behind this system low-amplitude (mid-lvl)  
  ridging will begin to develop by the middle of the week,  
  although the presence of a stationary front near the area will  
  result in a least a chance of precipitation during this period.  
  The next amplified trough/closed low will begin to make its way  
  towards the area towards the end of the workweek.  
   
  Dailies:  
   
  Sunday night-Monday morning: This will be an active period as  
  the mid-lvl trough currently over Texas progresses towards the  
  area, and the attendant surface low passes in the vicinity of  
  Lakes Eerie/Ontario. Expect that most of the action will be  
  centered around the passage of the system`s cold front Sunday  
  night into Monday morning. The combination of deep layer  
  moisture (PWATS near 1.5 inches) ahead of the front, modest mid- 
  lvl lapse rates, and impressive kinematic profiles (60 + kts of  
  bulk shear, > 50 kts of 0-3 km shear) will result in a severe  
  threat with the frontal precipitation band. Much will be  
  dependent upon how much surface-based instability can be  
  manifested along and slightly ahead of the convective line, as  
  this is always questionable in these nocturnal events. There is  
  some isolated tornado threat given 0-1 SRH values approaching  
  300 m2/s2 and sub 1000m LCLs, however, given the linear  
  convective mode the main threat will be straight-line winds. The 
  GFS is the fastest with advancing the cold front (bringing it  
  through in the 00-06Z time frame), however, leaned towards the  
  slower high-res consensus solution this forecast package, which  
  brings the bulk of the line into the area between 06-12Z (from  
  west to east).  
   
  In addition to the severe threat, given the high  
  PWATs/sfc.dewpoints can`t rule out a flooding rain threat  
  particularly in areas of eastern PA/NW NJ that received  
  significant rain with the Friday night-Saturday morning system.  
  The mitigating factor for hydro concerns will be the fast  
  forward motion of the system.  
   
  Monday: Drier air will filter in behind the cold front with  
  precipitation tapering off over most of the area by late  
  morning. The potential exception will be the Poconos/NW NJ where 
  some light backside precip may develop Monday afternoon as the  
  mid-lvl trough axis slides by. The main story during the day  
  Monday will be gusty west-northwest winds behind the cold front. 
  Given solid cold advection in the 925-850 layer, combined with  
  40-45 kts of flow at 850 expect fairly widesperad wind gusts of  
  30-35 kts Monday afternoon with gusts 35-40 kts also possible.  
  Temperatures will be a bit cooler than Sunday but good mixing  
  along with scattering clouds should keep maxes near if not  
  slightly above normal. 

Upton:

 

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
East coast upper ridging will exist, ahead of a strong southern
upper low over Texas shearing ne and interacting with a PAC
shortwave moving towards the Great Lakes. The associated
amplified shortwave trough will slide towards the east coast
Sunday Night and then negatively tilt through the region Monday.
Its resultant strengthening low pressure system will lift into
the Ohio Valley Sunday and the eastern Great Lakes and
Adirondacks Monday, with cold front approaching the region
Sunday Night and pushing through the region Monday morning.

On Sunday, a Canadian maritime airmass will be in place, with e
flow and a strong inversion promoting stratus maintenance and
areas of drizzle ahead of an approaching warm front. Temps will
likely remain near seasonable, generally around 60 se coastal
sections to mid 60s interior.

LLJ strengthens late Sunday into Sunday Night with warm front
most likely pushing north of the region in the aft/eve.
Scattered showers possible with warm frontal passage, and then iso-
sct showers and possibly a tstm in warm sector in the evening.
Main action may be with band/s of heavy rain showers and
embedded thunderstorm late Sunday Night into Monday morning in
response to deep layered lift and convergence of a +3-4 std pwat
subtropical moisture plume ahead/along the approaching cold
front. A general 3/4 to 1 1/2 inches of rain is likely, with
locally higher amounts where any training occurs. See hydrology
sections for impacts.

Additionally, potential exists for isolated strong
thunderstorms to be able to mix down the strong winds aloft to
the ground, particularly west of the Hudson River where some
weak surface instability is indicated ahead of the cold front.
If any stronger storms develop in this high shear/low cape
scenario, there is potential for rotation, but the potential is
very low. Further east, a stronger low-level inversion will
likely limit potential for downdrafts to mix to surface. If SPC
HREF mean elevated instability is correct though, indicating
borderline moderate elevated instability, the threat for strong
thunderstorms would increase.

Cold front and frontal rain band moves east Thursday morning,
with shortwave axis and secondary cold front moving through in
the afternoon. Scattered shower potential will likely continue
in cyclonic flow until trough passage. Otherwise, windy
conditions developing Monday afternoon and continue into Monday
Night with NW winds of 20 to 30 mph and gusts of 40 to 45 mph
likely, with isolated gusts to 50 mph possible.

&&
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Was very nice in Huntington this afternoon, probably around 70 and partly cloudy. Then I drove to Long Beach which fought back and forth with fog, later on gusty south winds, and couldn’t have been higher than 60. Springtime is by far the worst season there. 

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In the wake of last night's and this morning's rainfall, a brief period of dry weather lies ahead. Under bright afternoon sunshine, readings climbed well into the 70s across the region. High temperatures included: Albany: 74°; Allentown: 77°; Baltimore: 77°; Boston: 75°; Burlington: 72°; Concord: 75°; Harrisburg: 77°; Hartford: 77°; Islip: 66°; New York City: 77°; Newark: 78°; Philadelphia: 76°; Portland: 73°; Providence: 70°; Scranton: 72°; and, Washington, DC: 77°.

However, by late tomorrow and tomorrow night, another storm will be moving into the region. That system will likely bring a general 0.50"-1.00" rain to the New York City area with some locally higher amounts (especially to the north and west of New York City and Newark). Across central and Upstate New York, a widespread 1.00"-2.00" rainfall is likely with some locally higher amounts. As a result, flooding is possible in parts of that area, especially Upstate where above normal seasonal snowfall has occurred. However, both the 12z ECMWF and 18z NAM suggested much less precipitation, especially in the vicinity of New York City.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.02°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño should persist through April in Region 3.4.

The SOI was -23.80 on April 12. No figure was posted for today due to technical difficulties. The possibility exists for a continued interruption in SOI figures for coming days.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.017.

Looking back, the April 1-10 mean temperature was 50.8°. That was close to the figure that had been suggested based on historical experience following the development of a negative AO in during the first 10 days of April after a strongly positive AO near the end of March. The mean temperature for those prior cases was 51.6° (standard deviation 1.8°).

Over the next week, variable temperatures can be expected. Several days of generally cooler than normal readings are possible, along with several warmer days. The closing 7-10 days of the month could be warmer than normal with perhaps a turn toward normal as the month comes to a close.

Since 1950, there have been 6 cases where the AO dropped to -2.500 or below during the April 1-10 period, as happened on April 7. The mean April 16-30 temperature was 56.3° with a standard deviation of 2.3°. The latest guidance shows an estimated mean temperature of 57.2° for that period this year. Overall, the implied probability of a warmer than normal April has increased to 72%.

On April 12, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.161 (RMM). The amplitude was slightly below the April 11-adjusted figure of 0.202. Within 4-8 days, the MJO could emerge into an amplitude of 1.000 or above in Phase 2.

Finally, based on the guidance coupled with the historical data, it now appears that Atlanta will complete its first snowless winter on record. The old record least snowfall had been a trace of snow, which occurred in 24 winters since 1928-29. This will be the last mention of Atlanta's seasonal snowfall for winter 2018-19.

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Next 8 days averaging 59degs., or 6degs. AN.   

Month to date is +2.4[52.5].       Should be about +3.8[55.0] by the 22nd.

Temps. in upper 50's the last hour (6am-7am) with dense fog.   [ V <300' in CI.]    Really started to be foggy yesterday by 4pm.

FOG ADVISORY:

This is an important message from NY Alert

HEADLINE: Dense Fog Advisory issued April 14 at 6:47AM EDT until April 14 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS New York City - Upton

DESCRIPTION: ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING...
The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Dense Fog
Advisory, which is in effect until 9 AM EDT this morning.
* VISIBILITIES...One quarter mile or less at times.
* TIMING...Through early this morning.
* IMPACTS...Limited visibilities will make travel very difficult.

INSTRUCTIONS: A Dense Fog Advisory means visibilities will frequently be
reduced to one quarter mile or less. If driving, slow down, use
your fog lamps or low beam headlights, and leave plenty of
distance ahead of you in case a sudden stop is needed.

Issued By: NWS New York City - Upton (Long Island and New York City)

GALE WATCH also:

This is an important message from NY Alert

Issued To: New York Harbor

HEADLINE: Gale Watch issued April 14 at 6:21AM EDT until April 16 at 6:00AM EDT by NWS New York City - Upton

DESCRIPTION: ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...
The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Gale Watch,
which is in effect from Monday evening through late Monday night.
* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30
kt tonight into Monday morning, becoming northwest late Monday
and Monday night 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to
4 feet.

INSTRUCTIONS: A Small Craft Advisory means that sustained wind speeds or
frequent gusts of 25 to 33 kt and/or seas of 5 ft or higher are
expected or occurring, and hazardous to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in these conditions.
A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 kt has significantly increased, but the specific timing and/or
location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide additional
lead time for mariners who may wish to consider altering their
plans.

Issued By: NWS New York City - Upton (Long Island and New York City)

----------

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Wasn’t expecting to wake up to clear blue skies here in the uws, beautiful morning.
Wow. Dense fog in Suffolk county

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

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...it will be interesting to watch the masters this morning and into the afternoon as

the cold front approaches..tee times moved up to hopefully beat the severe line that moves thru 

around 2-3pm..

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26 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

Wasn’t expecting to wake up to clear blue skies here in the uws, beautiful morning.

Its very dense fog here in the bx. Visibility is basically zero. I cant see the houses across the street standing at ground level. 59 degrees

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Clear spot at the park...

 

Central Park: 64, visibility 7 miles

LGA: 58, visibility 0.0

JFK: 55, visibility 0.1 miles

Dtwn Heliport (wall st) 59, visibility 0.3 miles

Newark: 60 visibility 0.2 miles

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Record high minimums around the area yesterday. Quite the subtropical warmth and moisture surge into the area with the near record  PWATS. Like a spring version of the recent summer record warm minimums and high dew points since 2015.

Newark

4/13 61 in 2019 58 in 2018 58 in 1977

LGA #2

4/13 59 in 2018 58 in 2019 55 in 1945

JFK

4/13 53 in 2019 52 in 1980 51 in 2002+

ISP

4/13 53 in 2019 53 in 2002 51 in 1980

 

 

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15 minutes ago, dWave said:

Clear spot at the park...

 

Central Park: 64, visibility 7 miles

LGA: 58, visibility 0.0

JFK: 55, visibility 0.1 miles

Dtwn Heliport (wall st) 59, visibility 0.3 miles

Newark: 60 visibility 0.2 miles

Wow, feel like that’s unusual but not sure 

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16 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

The dew point is 56 degrees with 49% humidity. This is nothing. 

Yesterday ended up being a good looking day. Had a bbq hung out with the family it was perfect. Today coming down to the city it was foggy but it looks like it’s burning off. A lot of rain coming in the next couple of weeks

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23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Record high minimums around the area yesterday. Quite the subtropical warmth and moisture surge into the area with the near record  PWATS. Like a spring version of the recent summer record warm minimums and high dew points since 2015.

Already an early look at a 2018 summer repeat. Maybe this time the heat will match the humidity and give us the hottest summer ever (dews + temps).

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