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April 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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19 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Last summer was not too bad, humidity wise, as I recall.  I certainly remember summers that were much more uncomfortable. 

I don't. Last year was awful particularly August and September 

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1 hour ago, 495weatherguy said:

Last summer was not too bad, humidity wise, as I recall.  I certainly remember summers that were much more uncomfortable. 

Last year literally set the record for dew points.

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1 hour ago, 495weatherguy said:

Last summer was not too bad, humidity wise, as I recall.  I certainly remember summers that were much more uncomfortable. 

You sure you weren’t in Alaska last summer?  Because it was god awful here.

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I think we are headed for a very warm and humid summer with high dews and plenty of rain chances IMO. I don't think temps will be excessively hot though.

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5 hours ago, Sn0waddict said:

You sure you weren’t in Alaska last summer?  Because it was god awful here.

Quite sure

 

out on LI I experienced a warm summer overall, but the humidity was not that bad.  We were also  fairly dry as the storms consistently wound up to our north and west.  Great light shows, not a tremendous amount of precipitation

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Next 8 days averaging 57degs., or 5degs. AN.

Month to date is +1.5[51.0].     Should be about  +3.3[53.6] by the 19th.

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Last 20 days just 0.60" precip here...prior 15 months had been very wet. Won't be surprised if we still wind up with normal rainfall for April though.

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Cold morning in Mount Kisco this morning. 38 degrees outside my house. Kinda refreshing headed to the city a bit warmer but much cooler than yesterday. Looking forward to some rainy nights. 

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3 hours ago, 495weatherguy said:

Quite sure

 

out on LI I experienced a warm summer overall, but the humidity was not that bad.  We were also  fairly dry as the storms consistently wound up to our north and west.  Great light shows, not a tremendous amount of precipitation

Yea you are completely wrong but that’s ok. Only dewpoint records across the tri state. Not sure if you are trolling but it’s all good

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The magnitude of the 75 degree dew point days record at JFK in 2018 exceed Newark’s 90 degree day record in 2010.

 

1CF70C76-EE27-4332-BC81-64B4B1032116.thumb.png.f56f199b82942de2094db70f05ca4726.png

C36F1552-221F-4CBA-A9DC-FA04D9E14EE4.thumb.jpeg.26ea278b0e6143e1570d38e2a3d02231.jpeg

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49 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Great find. Thank you. 

Woulda found it quicker but i refused to look at my phone this morning to avoid @Rjay‘s Islanders texts. Lol

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Last 30 days top 10 driest for places like ISP and FRG. Noticed my local pond water levels way down. 

03-12 to 4-10 top driest years for ISP

1 1966-04-10 0.71 0
2 2012-04-10 0.87 0
3 1995-04-10 1.22 0
4 1991-04-10 1.28 0
5 1979-04-10 1.73 0
6 1992-04-10 1.84 0
- 1978-04-10 1.84 0
8 2019-04-10 1.93 0
9 1965-04-10 1.94 2
10 2011-04-10 1.99 0

FRG even drier...the period of record only started around 2000

1 2012-04-10 0.88 0
2 2019-04-10 1.14 1
3 2018-04-10 1.22 0
4 2011-04-10 1.54 0
5 2006-04-10 1.80 0
6 2015-04-10 1.99 0
7 2008-04-10 2.13 0
8 2013-04-10 2.30 1
9 2003-04-10 2.38 0
10 2016-04-10 2.40 0

 

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12 hours ago, 495weatherguy said:

Last summer was not too bad, humidity wise, as I recall.  I certainly remember summers that were much more uncomfortable. 

Humidity was bad, but temps have been worse. There were many overcast days in the 80s with dews super high so it felt like a steam room.

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14 hours ago, BxEngine said:

Lolz

I wish I was in the firehouse most of my day =(

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

I wish I was in the firehouse most of my day =(

My god can you stop complaining. I think you complained less at CVS. 

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

I wish I was in the firehouse most of my day =(

Says every cop ever... :)

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2 hours ago, BxEngine said:

Says every cop ever... :)

This is true

I also wish I had your schedule.

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At least the Saturday warm up will make it into New England this time.

 

15B960AF-0CDC-4297-8D9C-233A133427AD.thumb.png.0b3cb7fc4d591b23bf85c5cc308d0106.png

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Mt.Holly and Upton ref Friday/Saturday & Sunday/Monday.

 

Mt.Holly:

 

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... 
  A warm front will gradually track north during Friday and enter at  
  least the southern parts of our area. Despite the strengthening  
  southerly low-level flow, the combination of the time of year and  
  the parent surface low tracking so far to our west, it is difficult  
  for these warm fronts to push north. At the moment, we have it  
  making it into Delmarva where temperatures are the warmest. Also  
  potentially slowing its northward progression is that a strong  
  inversion may tend to hold low clouds in longer farther north. 
   
  Portions of the area should start off the day with some fog and  
  drizzle. As the boundary layer warms, some improvement should take  
  place overall, however some showers will start to arrive from the  
  west by late afternoon. PoPs are in the higher chance range in the  
  afternoon across the western areas, then decrease eastward.  
   
  Temperatures will be affected by the warm front, and instead of a  
  gradual transition from north to south it could be more abrupt then  
  depicted. As of now we have highs in the upper 50s across our  
  northern zones and mid 70s south. 
   
  Southerly winds will increase in the afternoon with gusts up to 30  
  mph, especially south of the warm front as deeper mixing will occur  
  where the boundary layer is warmer.  
   
  && 
   
  .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... 
  Friday night through Sunday... 
   
  Low pressure will continue to advance northward through Ontario and  
  Quebec Friday night dragging a cold front eastward into eastern PA.  
  Expect widespread showers with at least some embedded storms to move  
  eastward into the CWA through Friday evening and continue overnight.  
  We have growing concerns that there could be some very heavy  
  rainfall as this occurs...especially over eastern PA. Forecast  
  models depicting several hundred j/kg of elevated CAPE with PWATS  
  around 1.5 inches which is above the 90th percentile for this time  
  of year. There will also be some right jet entrance dynamics at play  
  and with flow oriented parallel to front this will be favorable for  
  a training pattern of showers/storms. So this all said, expect at  
  least locally heavy rainfall with the potential for urban and small  
  stream type flooding.  
   
  Aformentioned front gets hung up over the area Saturday.  
  However as shortwave energy passes off to the east there won`t  
  be any real forcing at play. Also, mid levels will tend to dry  
  out somewhat from north to south. For this reason, expect Friday 
  night`s showers/storms to be quickly moving out early Saturday  
  morning with only some scattered to isolated showers/storms  
  developing in the afternoon, mainly S/E of the I-95 corridor.  
   
  Tricky forecast for Saturday night and Sunday as one low departs  
  over eastern Canada while the next one takes shape and moves from  
  Texas north and east into the Ohio Valley. The challenge will be  
  placement of the associated frontal boundary during this period with  
  models diverging on these details. The NAM pushes the front south of  
  the area through Saturday night and keeps it south through Sunday  
  which would bring mainly dry weather during this period. Meanwhile,  
  the GFS keeps front hung up over the area Saturday night and  
  then lifts it north of us as a warm front Sunday. This solution  
  would tend to keep at least scattered showers/storms around  
  during this period...especially for overnight Saturday night  
  and again for Sunday afternoon. GEM Global and ECMWF depict  
  solutions between the two extremes of the NAM and GFS. Given the 
  uncertainty, we didn`t stray too far from the previous forecast 
  and generally keep low chances for showers in the forecast  
  Saturday night with POPs slowly ramping up through Sunday. Best  
  chance for more widespread showers/storms looks to be late  
  Sunday as daytime heating is maximized.  
   
  Sunday night through Thursday... 
   
  The main concern during this period will be large, moisture laden  
  low pressure system as it moves from Ohio late Sunday north and east  
  across PA and upstate NY reaching eastern New England by late  
  Monday. This will push a strong cold front across the area Sunday  
  night into early Monday that may bring multiple hazardous weather  
  threats. In terms of the details, showers and storms look to become  
  more organized and widespread across the area through Sunday evening  
  as cold front approaches. Early indications are deep layer shear  
  could be in the 50-70 knot range with PWATS approaching 1.7 inches  
  and ML Capes of a least a few hundred j/kg....this all occuring with  
  strong deep layer forcing as low deepens and upper level trough  
  becomes negatively tilted. Thus, think both heavy rainfall along  
  with severe weather may be a concern. Again, this is still several  
  days away and a lot can change between now and then with details  
  that still need to be ironed out but indications are this could be  
  an impactful system. Limiting factor is timing...overnight timing of  
  frontal passage generally not as favorable for severe weather due to  
  lack of heating.  
   
  Rain/showers continue into Monday morning with the  
  steadiest/heaviest precip likely moving out by midday behind the  
  cold front. Gusty and drier conditions should follow for the  
  afternoon.  

Upton:

 

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Strong low pressure over the Plains will slowly lift north into the
Great Lakes tonight into Friday. A warm front will develop ahead of
this system and slowly approach from the S and W during the day on
Friday. As of now, it looks like the front will remain to the west
during the day before lifting through at night. This will put the
region in the warm sector with rain chances increasing ahead of the
front.  With some elevated instability, have added a slight chance
of thunder to the forecast for the first half of the night.

Temperatures on Friday will be in the lower 60s in and around NYC
and in the 50s elsewhere. However, these temperatures will be
dependent on the slow movement of the warm front. Southerly winds
increase tomorrow afternoon with gusts up to 25 mph.

Temperatures Friday night are not expected to fall much, staying in
the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Intense closed low over the central plains today will shear ne
into northern stream through southern Ontario and then into
northern Quebec this weekend. At the surface, a weak frontal
boundary pushes se of the region late Friday Night into
Saturday morning. With upper energy still well off to the NW and
deep SW flow aligned with the front, the front and associated
showers/cloud cover could be slower to clear than progged by the
models. This make for a challenging temp forecast for Saturday.
With afternoon clearing, temps could soar well into the 70s to
around 80 degrees across NYC, NE NJ, Lower Hud and interior SW
CT. For now have tempered expectations to mid 70s in these
areas to lower 60s immediate S coast with potential for high
and mid deck to remain.

A cold front then slips south through the area Saturday
Night. This boundary then likely begins to work north from the
Mid- Atlantic as a warm front late Sunday ahead of the next
more intense low pressure system, but still uncertainty on how
quickly this front moves north with model spread in how quickly
southerly llj works north towards the region. Leaning towards a
slower northward progress of the front, likely not moving north
until late Sunday night.

Meanwhile, PAC energy coming into the west coast today will dig
the next trough towards the US Mexico border this weekend, with
closed upper low formation. Models in good agreement with this
upper low lifting ne towards the Great Lakes Sun Night into
Monday, with associated shortwave energy approaching the region
Monday and swinging through Monday Night into Tuesday. The
resultant strong low pressure system will lift into the Ohio
Valley Sunday and the eastern Great Lakes and Adirondacks
Monday, with triple pt low moving near the region. Potential
for a 6 to 12 hr period of moderate to heavy rain showers with
embedded thunder during the Sunday Night to Monday morning period
in response to deep layered lift of a +3-4 std pwat subtropical
moisture plume ahead of the approaching frontal system.
Gradually drying but breezy conditions Monday Night into
Tuesday in wake of frontal system as cyclonic flow gradually
relents.

Thereafter, general agreement on upper ridging gradually
building into the northeast mid to late next week ahead of the
next longitudinally digging trough developing and then sliding
east from the Central US. This setup would signal an
increasingly warm and humid airmass over the region during the
mid to late week as a PAC and then subtropical flow setup, but
as is typical in the early Spring in the NE US, indications are
that Canadian Maritime high pressure will exert its influence on
the region Wed and Thu with a backdoor cold front pressing
south or warm front developing to the south. Temps for the mid
to late week appear seasonable at this time. Potential for some
stratus and light rain/drizzle development Wed/Thu depending on
location of a developing warm front and weak shortwaves energies
moving through the flow.

&&

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Looks like the models (NAM/GFS) have been trending a bit wetter for today (Friday) into Saturday. Mt.Holly also was concerned for heavy rain especially Friday night into Saturday morning with thunderstorms also possible. Looks like more heavy rain/storms will be possible later Sunday, Sunday night and into the first half of Monday.

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21 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Looks like the models (NAM/GFS) have been trending a bit wetter for today (Friday) into Saturday. Mt.Holly also was concerned for heavy rain especially Friday night into Saturday morning with thunderstorms also possible. Looks like more heavy rain/storms will be possible later Sunday, Sunday night and into the first half of Monday.

Was just looking at that on the models. We might get some thunderstorms around 11pm tomorrow. Training cells are also possible leading to flash flooding. 

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3 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

Found his thoughts for May interesting.

 

Sounded like a pretty generic and broad forecast to me.

"May should be nice if we don't get any BDCF and cut-off lows" 

Isn't that how it is every May?

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