Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

April 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


bluewave
 Share

Recommended Posts

The line out West is nasty. So far about 45+ reports or so of wind damage. Multiple tornado warnings as well.

SPC seems to think that the main threat will remain just to our South and West given the track of the warm front, however the warm sector looks a bit farther North and East than perhaps predicted.

ttd_sf.gif?1556313018944

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pretty impressive to see golf ball sized hail in the Northeast with elevated convection.

https://mobile.twitter.com/iembot_box/status/1121877262947823616

At 3:12 PM EDT, Warren [Worcester Co, MA] PUBLIC reports HAIL of golf ball size (M1.75 INCH)

https://mobile.twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/1121875246531923968?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Pretty impressive to see golf ball sized hail in the Northeast with elevated convection.

https://mobile.twitter.com/iembot_box/status/1121877262947823616

At 3:12 PM EDT, Warren [Worcester Co, MA] PUBLIC reports HAIL of golf ball size (M1.75 INCH)

https://mobile.twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/1121875246531923968?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

 

 

 

Yeah especially since there was zero cape. But we've seen crazier things happen like that tornado in queens last summer.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said:

Yeah especially since there was zero cape. But we've seen crazier things happen like that tornado in queens last summer.

The other instances of 1.50 or greater hail in the Northeast that I can remember were with surface based CAPE.  

https://mobile.twitter.com/iembot_box/status/1121890270000353280

At 3:03 PM EDT, Brimfield [Hampden Co, MA] LAW ENFORCEMENT reports HAIL of ping pong ball size (M1.50 INCH)

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Very impressive line moving in from the west, at the very least we should see heavy rain.

I think  we should hould see at least that. What's also interesting is the current activity that's off the NJ coast and south of LI. Seems to be holding together in the marine environment.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The prospects of a historic late-season snowstorm in Chicago are increasing. At present, based on a combination of the NAM, RGEM, GFS, and ECMWF, Chicago will likely pick up 4"-8" snow tomorrow into early Sunday. Chicago's biggest snowfall on or after April 25 was 3.3", which was recorded on April 25-26, 1910.

The same storm responsible for a potentially historic late-season snowstorm in Chicago could usher in one of the coldest late-season air masses the northern Middle Atlantic region has seen in nearly 5 years and possibly longer.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around April 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.95°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño should persist into the first week in May in Region 3.4.

The SOI was +1.66 today. SOI variability has increased since the end of March.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.545.

The implied probability of a warmer than normal April is currently greater than 99%. There is also an implied 57% probability that April 2019 will wind up among the 10 warmest April cases on record and 23% probability that it will wind up among the 5 warmest April cases on record. The most likely range for April's mean temperature is 54.9°-55.7°.

On April 25, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 2.408 (RMM). The amplitude was lower than the April 24-adjusted figure of 2.453.

Since 1974, there were four cases when the MJO reached an amplitude of 1.750 or above during Phase 2 during the April 20-30 period. The mean May 1-10 temperature was 58.8° vs. the 1981-2018 average of 60.2°. 75% of those cases were cooler than the 1981-2018 average. However, during May cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.50°C or above for the month, the May 1-10 temperature averaged 60.8°. Therefore, it is likely that the first 10 days of May will probably wind up with a mean temperature of 59.2°-61.2°.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 wettest April on record now for ISP at 5.61. Also the 4th warmest making this the new April leader for warm and wet combined

1 1983 9.09 0
2 1998 7.37 0
3 1964 7.33 0
4 2006 7.29 0
5 1973 6.94 0
6 2007 6.72 0
7 1980 6.57 0
8 1982 6.32 0
9 1996 6.14 0
10 2004 6.08 0
11 2000 5.80 0
12 2019 5.61 4

 

1 2017 53.4 0
- 2010 53.4 0
  2002 52.3 0
  2012 52.2 0
  2019 52.1 4

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The widespread nature of the wet pattern across the US is very impressive. I have never seen so many mosquitoes this early in the season on Long Island.

https://mobile.twitter.com/DroughtCenter/status/1121412756438122498

US #Drought Monitor 4 25 19: With record precipitation in many parts of the country, the USDM continues to record new lows. For the first time in its 20-year history, the Drought Monitor is below 3% in the Lower 48 (2.28% experiencing drought)

 

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The widespread nature of the wet pattern across the US is very impressive. I have never seen so many mosquitoes this early in the season on Long Island.

https://mobile.twitter.com/DroughtCenter/status/1121412756438122498

US #Drought Monitor 4 25 19: With record precipitation in many parts of the country, the USDM continues to record new lows. For the first time in its 20-year history, the Drought Monitor is below 3% in the Lower 48 (2.28% experiencing drought)

 

 

Yea a lot of mosquitoes. Also wasn’t a very cold winter. Having yard sprayed Monday 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...