Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

April 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


bluewave
 Share

Recommended Posts

lood Advisory
National Weather Service New York NY
242 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2019

NYC103-222015-
/O.NEW.KOKX.FA.Y.0021.190422T1842Z-190422T2015Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Suffolk NY-
242 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2019

The National Weather Service in Upton NY has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
  Suffolk County in southeastern New York...

* Until 415 PM EDT.

* At 241 PM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
  heavy rain due to thunderstorms. This will cause minor flooding in
  the advisory area. Up to one inch of rain has already fallen with
  an additional half to one inch of rain expected.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Islip, Brentwood, Commack, Riverhead, Huntington Station,
  Centereach, Shirley, Deer Park, Lindenhurst, Medford, Southold,
  Hauppauge, Ronkonkoma, Manorville and Stony Brook.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

A Flood Advisory means river or stream flows are elevated, or ponding
of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Long Island closing in on the record for days with measurable rainfall in April. Today was day 14 with only 2 more days needed for the new record. 

Most days in April with measurable rainfall at Islip

1 1986 15 0
- 1964 15 0
- 2019 14 8
- 1996 14 0
- 1989 14 0
- 1987 14 0
- 2004 14 0
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 4/19/2019 at 9:33 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Although the warmth this April has not been as extreme as it was in 2002, it has been more persistent. There is a distinct possibility that the mean temperature for April 2019 could approach or reach that of April 2002.

Don is that from the lows only or from the highs included also?

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 4/19/2019 at 7:17 PM, bluewave said:

What a snow drought between 96-97 and 01-02. My only memorable snowstorms during that stretch were the March 99 surprise and the one near the end of December 2000. 

That was worse than the late 90s/early 90s for us wasn't it?  Although it didn't feel as bad because we had 93-94 and 95-96 to reminisce about lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

42 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don is that from the lows only or from the highs included also?

 

Persistence. 2002's high monthly mean temperature was largely the result of a historic April heat wave.

Average High: 2002: 64.8; 2019: 63.5 (through 4/22/2019)

Average Low: 2002: 47.4; 2019: 47.1 (through 4/22/2019)

Mean: 2002: 56.1; 2019: 55.3 (through 4/22/2019)

% Lows 50 or above: 2002: 30% days; 2019: 36% days (through 4/22/2019)

% Highs 60 or above: 2002: 57% days; 2019: 77% days (through 4/22/2019)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

An offshore storm backed toward the coast bringing periods of rain to Long Island and the New York City area today. Daily rainfall amounts through 7 pm included: Bridgeport: 0.75"; Islip: 0.79"; New York City: 0.23"; Newark: 0.09"; Poughkeepsie: 0.03"; Westhampton: 1.12"; and, White Plains: 0.19".

In the wake of the storm, sunshine will return tomorrow. Temperatures could soar well into the 70s across the region. A few locations could approach or even reach 80°.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around April 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.95°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño should persist into the first week in May in Region 3.4.

The SOI was -3.46 today.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.598.

The implied probability of a warmer than normal April is currently 98%. There is also an implied 77% probability that April 2019 will wind up among the 10 warmest April cases on record and 61% probability that it will wind up among the 5 warmest April cases on record.

The mean temperature for May following April cases with a mean temperature of 56.0° or above is 63.0°. It is likely that April 2019 will finish with a mean temperature of 56.0° or above. The dynamic guidance and statistical guidance are in agreement that May will wind up on the warm side of normal in the New York City area.

The 5 Warmest April Mean Temperatures were as follows:

 

1. 57.9°, 2010
2. 56.9°, 1941
3. 56.2°, 1981
4. 56.1°, 1921, 2002
5. 55.9°, 1969

On April 21, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.312(RMM). The amplitude was above the April 20-adjusted figure of 1.010.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

An offshore storm backed toward the coast bringing periods of rain to Long Island and the New York City area today. Daily rainfall amounts through 7 pm included: Bridgeport: 0.75"; Islip: 0.79"; New York City: 0.23"; Newark: 0.09"; Poughkeepsie: 0.03"; Westhampton: 1.12"; and, White Plains: 0.19".

 

You only have to go 3-4 miles east of KPOU to get over .25". I was eating dinner right near there around 7 and there was just barely a drizzle for a few minutes but when we left to head home it was soaked on the east side of town and raining lightly but steadily most of the way home.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

You only have to go 3-4 miles east of KPOU to get over .25". I was eating dinner right near there around 7 and there was just barely a drizzle for a few minutes but when we left to head home it was soaked on the east side of town and raining lightly but steadily most of the way home.

There was a sharp cut off. The difference was noticeable from White Plains to Mamaroneck, as well.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Next 8 days are averaging 59degs., or 3degs. AN.

Month to date is +3.6[55.3].     April should end near +3.4[56.3].

This is good for 3rd. Place by a nose.

Today looks good for 75* City and 70* by me, as wind shifts to the S late in day, along with high clouds entering the picture, maybe.

Up several degrees already to 62* by 10am.     63* at 11am and for those interested, the NY Aquarium Parking Lot is already full, with cars waiting on Surf Ave.      64* at Noon with a heavier backlog into NYA.    67* at 1pm, still a wait for the NYA.    As I suspected, high clouds and wind shift have reversed the temperature rise, 64.5* at 2pm but  still a logjam at NYA.    63.5* at 3pm, then sun returned, but temperature did not really respond.     Still 63.5* at 4pm but waiting is over at NYA----no new customers allowed after 4pm, LOL

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Long Island takes the rainfall lead from areas further west this month to date. Vegetation is becoming green and lush with the spring bloom. Warm and wet conditions are really helping things along. Every warm up like today is eventually followed by another chance of rain. Welcome to the tropics.;)

.........rain.....temperature departure

ISP...4.15....+3.2

JFK..3.13....+2.0

LGA..3.02....+2.5

NYC..3.29....+3.6

EWR..2.88....+3.6

HPN..3.06.....+3.3

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...