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April 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


bluewave
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1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

A very nice Easter Sunday shaping up, temps should make it to around 70

Mostly sunny with a current temp of 62 here.

Yeah didnt last very long. Overcast and some occasional drizzle temp down to 59 here. Was looking promising for at least alternating times of sun and clouds but looking like a solid overcast now. 

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This afternoon, the clouds broke and the sun returned. The temperature soared into the middle 60s across the region. Tomorrow and Tuesday could see even warmer temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño should persist through April in Region 3.4.

The SOI was -12.84 today.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.721.

The closing 10 days of the month will likely be generally warmer than normal. Since 1950, there have been 6 cases where the AO dropped to -2.500 or below during the April 1-10 period, as happened on April 7. The mean April 16-30 temperature was 56.3° with a standard deviation of 2.3°. The implied probability of a warmer than normal April is currently 97%. There is also an implied 77% probability that April 2019 will wind up among the 10 warmest April cases on record and 63% probability that it will wind up among the 5 warmest April cases on record.

The mean temperature for May following April cases with a mean temperature of 56.0° or above is 63.0°. It is likely that April 2019 will finish with a mean temperature of 56.0° or above. The dynamic guidance and statistical guidance are in agreement that May will wind up on the warm side of normal in the New York City area.

On April 20, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.009(RMM). The amplitude was above the April 19-adjusted figure of 0.878. The April 20 amplitude ended the 37-day stretch during which the amplitude was below 1.000. That was the longest such stretch since the MJO was at a low amplitude for 39 consecutive days from April 21, 2015 through May 29, 2015.

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On 4/20/2019 at 7:23 AM, bluewave said:

Newark enters the top 10 warmest Aprils through the 19th.

Warmest 4/1-4/19 at Newark

1 2010-04-19 58.8 0
- 2002-04-19 58.8 0
3 1945-04-19 57.0 0
4 2012-04-19 56.6 0
5 1981-04-19 56.1 0
6 2017-04-19 56.0 0
7 2006-04-19 55.6 0
8 1994-04-19 55.1 0
9 1941-04-19 54.9 0
10 2019-04-19 54.4 0

impressive to get that with no daily record highs

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14 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

impressive to get that with no daily record highs

Warm minimums and high dew points win again. 6th warmest average minimum temperature vs 13th warmest average high temperature for Newark.

warmest average minimum temperature Newark 4/1-4/21

1 2002-04-21 48.9 0
2 2010-04-21 47.9 0
3 2017-04-21 47.0 0
4 2012-04-21 46.8 0
5 1945-04-21 46.0 0
6 2019-04-21 45.9 0

Warmest average maximum temperature 

1 2010-04-21 69.7 0
2 2002-04-21 68.4 0
3 1941-04-21 67.8 0
4 2012-04-21 67.5 0
5 1945-04-21 66.8 0
6 2006-04-21 66.4 0
7 1976-04-21 66.3 0
8 1968-04-21 66.1 0
9 1981-04-21 65.6 0
10 2005-04-21 65.2 0
11 2017-04-21 65.0 0
12 1994-04-21 64.8 0
13 2019-04-21 63.9 0

 

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38 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Pouring here in western suffolk, looks nasty out east, wonder how far west that gets

Probably into at least eastern Nassau; there have been some rando lightning strikes outside of those heavier bands too...two of which have occurred ~20 miles SE of JFK.

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