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April 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


bluewave
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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

While the forecast soundings aren’t as unstable as we saw Monday morning, the PWATS are forecast near record levels for April. So the area could see a widespread 1-2 inches of heavy with locally higher amounts where the best training sets up. NYC is on track to tie the all-time record of 15 consecutive months with at least 3.00” of precipitation. The record streak was established from Dec 74 to Feb 76. 2nd place is 14 consecutive months from Dec 10 to Jan 12.

 

D9677F2E-1CCE-495B-A9A7-747AB29C2891.thumb.png.e892040c1322030b22398f9c42e29a07.png

 

 

I've posted this stat before but I think it's pretty impressive....My station has had only one below normal precip month during the past 14....Running about normal so far this month at 2.28"....another couple inches would put it above.

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1 hour ago, doncat said:

I've posted this stat before but I think it's pretty impressive....My station has had only one below normal precip month during the past 14....Running about normal so far this month at 2.28"....another couple inches would put it above.

Bet on wet to continue much of the remainder of the year.  THink we are looking at a summer repeat too. Warm-steamy and rainy, when not raining = hot

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12 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Bet on wet to continue much of the remainder of the year.  THink we are looking at a summer repeat too. Warm-steamy and rainy, when not raining = hot

That is the current Euro summer forecast. Could also mean another year with more close in hurricane and tropical storm activity from the GOM to East Coast.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1118514451827843072

 

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Through 7:45 pm CDT, Baton Rouge had picked up 4.82" rain. That smashed the daily record of 2.40" that was set way back in 1901. The storm responsible for this heavy rain will affect the region later tomorrow into Saturday.

That storm will likely bring a general 0.50"-1.50" rain to the New York City area. Some locally higher amounts are possible. Readings should remain above average. Based on sensitivity analysis, there is an implied probability of 64% that New York City will pick up 1.00" or more rain. To date, New York City has received 12.93" precipitation, which is 0.98" below normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño should persist through April in Region 3.4.

The SOI was -8.15 today.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.107.

The closing 7-10 days of the month will likely be generally warmer than normal. Since 1950, there have been 6 cases where the AO dropped to -2.500 or below during the April 1-10 period, as happened on April 7. The mean April 16-30 temperature was 56.3° with a standard deviation of 2.3°. The implied probability of a warmer than normal April is currently 90%. There is also an implied 68% probability that April 2019 will wind up among the 10 warmest April cases on record and 57% probability that it will wind up among the 5 warmest April cases on record.

On April 17, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.753 (RMM). The amplitude was above the April 16-adjusted figure of 0.671. The MJO has now had an amplitude below 1.000 for 35 consecutive days. That's the longest such stretch since the MJO was at a low amplitude for 39 consecutive days from April 21, 2015 through May 29, 2015.

Within the next 3 days, the MJO could emerge into an amplitude of 1.000 or above, likely in Phase 2. Historic data with the very long duration periods of low amplitude favors a return to higher amplitude at Phases 8, 1, or 2 (Phase 2 accounts for 6/14 or 43% cases). Typically, additional days at low amplitude then follow during the subsequent 30 days.

Finally, according to the GISS dataset, March 2019 was the 3rd warmest March on record (global land and sea temperatures) with an anomaly of +1.11°C. Only 2016 and 2017 were warmer. Meanwhile, on April 17, Arctic sea ice extent was 12,756,658 square kilometers. That broke the daily record low figure of 12,985,833 square kilometers, which was set just last year. However, Arctic temperatures have recently moved closer to normal, so the melt rate could slow in coming days.

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3 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

Temp made it up to 66 here but has dropped back to the current temp of 62

I suspect temps will stay fairly steady here or even rise a bit overnight.

Same here 66° high....Models are really all over the place with the placement of any heavy rains for tomorrow  night- Sat.

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Just now, doncat said:

Same here 66° high....Models are really all over the place with the placement of any heavy rains for tomorrow  night- Sat.

My temp has actually risen a few degrees over the last few hours, current temp 65

Yeah seems the models have a tendency to do that especially when convection is involved. I would expect heavy rain/storms (some strong to severe) anytime from late tomorrow afternoon into early Saturday morning.

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2 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

My temp has actually risen a few degrees over the last few hours, current temp 65

Yeah seems the models have a tendency to do that especially when convection is involved. I would expect heavy rain/storms (some strong to severe) anytime from late tomorrow afternoon into early Saturday morning.

Warm front pushed through like it's nothing. 

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Next 8 days averaging about 62degs., or about 8degs. AN.

Month to date is +2.9[53.9].     Should be +4.5[56.5] by the 27th.

60* at 6am, here.

No BN days for the rest of the month is possible.    We could back-in to 1st. Place, for the month.

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No let up in sight for this very strong WAR pattern. Warmer than normal temperatures with occasional shots of tropical moisture continues. Notice how the 500 mb pattern is perfectly mirroring the SST departures.This is how we end up with the same pattern for months and months.

777D4919-DDDD-46FD-BC54-3FCDC2E593A5.gif.8489c7cca18e565858e685a983441569.gif

1B92A566-4A3A-4F16-B759-A33DCBF074CF.gif.ecdfdf2cda051adc1a3980b4f10fdcb0.gif

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10 minutes ago, doncat said:

^^ Been a back and forth pattern with temps...Nov below, Dec above, Jan normal, Feb above, Mar below, April above.

November and March were the few times over the last year that we saw the WAR relax. It pretty much ran the table for the DJF resulting in near record low snowfall over that period. Notice how the influence of the Greenland blocking often gets muted under this regime.

61480A8D-C6DC-461A-A018-3A8A970BAFFD.png.82d0998d02ae19ccc96cd34174584cf8.png

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