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April 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


bluewave
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2 hours ago, NycStormChaser said:

Yep. I've been shooting timelapses from high point since 230pm..all those cells slid just around me except this last one that's raining on me right now. I think I got some lightning I have to check when I get some but the timelapse will certainly be cool

I actually drove down from the Binghamton area earlier today and traveled under the incipient stages of this line.  I have no doubt you obtained some great shots from your spot based upon what I saw coming down I380 from the Scranton area.  These cells were low topped but spectacular to watch as they evolved.  Tonight I am seeing something I have not seen in the 14 years I have been here (I moved from LI).  The Back door / seebreeze front has just moved a couple of miles to my west.  There is about a 15 degree temperature difference across Bethlehem tonight with this front.  That pales in comparison to the 25 degree difference across NYC last night with the same front.  It is very rare that a front like this gets this far west from NYC.

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Yesterday, Caribou picked up 4.2" snow. That brought Caribou's seasonal snowfall to 162.7", making winter 2018-19 Caribou's 3rd snowiest winter on record.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.02°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño should persist through April in Region 3.4.

The SOI was +17.01 today.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.159.

As previously noted, since 1950 there have been four prior cases when the AO reached +2.500 or above during the last 10 days of March and then had four or more days with negative values during the first week of April. The mean temperature for the 4/1-10 period in New York City was 51.6° (standard deviation 1.8°). That is about 2 1/2 degrees warmer than climatology for the April 1-10 period (1950-2018). Consequently, based both on that historical data and the latest guidance, it is very likely that the April 1-10 period will wind up warmer than normal.

Since 1950, there have been 6 cases where the AO dropped to -2.500 or below during the April 1-10 period, as happened on April 7. The mean April 16-30 temperature was 56.3° with a standard deviation of 2.3°. The latest guidance shows an estimated mean temperature of 56.5° for that period this year.

Beyond April 10, 7-10 days of generally cooler than normal to near normal readings are possible. However, the closing 7-10 days of the month could wind up warmer than normal. Overall, based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of a warmer than normal April has increased to 63%.

On April 8, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.063 (RMM). The amplitude was below the April 7-adjusted figure of 0.122. That was the lowest amplitude since the MJO had an amplitude of 0.045 on March 31, 2017. For now, the MJO is essentially irrelevant. However, within 10-14 days, the MJO could emerge into an amplitude of 1.000 or above in Phase 2. There remains considerable uncertainty whether the MJO would then progress to Phase 3 or continue to regress toward Phase 1. During the April 20-30 period, Phase 1 was approximately 1.2° warmer than Phase 3.

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1 hour ago, Tatamy said:

I actually drove down from the Binghamton area earlier today and traveled under the incipient stages of this line.  I have no doubt you obtained some great shots from your spot based upon what I saw coming down I380 from the Scranton area.  These cells were low topped but spectacular to watch as they evolved.  Tonight I am seeing something I have not seen in the 14 years I have been here (I moved from LI).  The Back door / seebreeze front has just moved a couple of miles to my west.  There is about a 15 degree temperature difference across Bethlehem tonight with this front.  That pales in comparison to the 25 degree difference across NYC last night with the same front.  It is very rare that a front like this gets this far west from NYC.

That is very interesting. I really thought one or two of the storms was going to go severe but they didn't make it.

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22 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I do not think there is a “normal pattern” anymore. But if you look back historically there have been snowy and less snowy decades based on blocking. Wether it’s directly amp related needs more research 

That’s fair.  Whatever it is, this winter was tame

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23 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I do not think there is a “normal pattern” anymore. But if you look back historically there have been snowy and less snowy decades based on blocking. Wether it’s directly amp related needs more research 

I definitely think the AMO has a part in it--since 2013 or so, cold anomolies have been showing up south of Greenland which inhibits blocking to a degree....

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41 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

there was a massive hemispheric circulation change in 2013 which bluewave has posted about in detail

The change did not get the superstar treatment at the time.

Was this because it takes time to recognize that a big shift has occurred or because we did not appreciate the phenomenon?

Is hemispheric circulation modeled effectively or is it a space where skill levels are still evolving?

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Things have really dried out over the last Month. Our last widespread heavy rain over 1.00” was back on March 21st. Maybe one of the cutters starting with next Monday will give some part of the area a good soaking. 

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Early signs of a brutally hot & humid summer? Chances are trough stays in west-midwest while coasts heat up. 

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