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April 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


bluewave
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Feels summerlike outside. Temps rocketed as soon as the clouds broke. Local weather stations are in the mid-upper 70s here. South of the Southern State is where it seems to cool down, to the shore where it's 55-60. Sharp gradient but typical this time of year. Really sharp demarcation NE of a line from New Haven to Danbury from the backdoor front which is unfortunately headed this way. 

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14 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Feels summerlike outside. Temps rocketed as soon as the clouds broke. Local weather stations are in the mid-upper 70s here. South of the Southern State is where it seems to cool down, to the shore where it's 55-60. Sharp gradient but typical this time of year. Really sharp demarcation NE of a line from New Haven to Danbury from the backdoor front which is unfortunately headed this way. 

Welcome to the north shore spring time, much better than down south, 75 here now

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Back door rolling in. Got chilly real fast in co op city, Bx. Lost about 15 degrees in 40 mins or so per car thermometer. Gusty breeze off the Sound. A couple miles west its slightly warmer but still noticeably cooler. 

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My least fav weather event. These ENE winds in spring are the few times I can be 15 degrees cooler than Central Park, and cooler than the south shore. I dunno if I could live on LI and deal with strong sea breezes all the time lol.

58 here after a high of 78. Still mid 70s most of Manhattan it looks like. 

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Today, the temperature soared to 78° in Central Park. That was New York City's warmest temperature since October 10, 2018 when the thermometer hit 80°.

Meanwhile, late this afternoon snow moved into Caribou. The snowstorm will likely deliver 4"-8" snow there. The temperature there was 25° as of 9 pm.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.20°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.00°C for the week centered around March 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.96°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño should persist through April in Region 3.4.

The SOI was +24.37 today. That is the highest figure since the SOI was +27.20 on October 14, 2018.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.497.

As previously noted, since 1950 there have been four prior cases when the AO reached +2.500 or above during the last 10 days of March and then had four or more days with negative values during the first week of April. The mean temperature for the 4/1-10 period in New York City was 51.6° (standard deviation 1.8°). That is about 2 1/2 degrees warmer than climatology for the April 1-10 period (1950-2018). Consequently, based both on that historical data and the latest guidance, it is very likely that the April 1-10 period will wind up warmer than normal.

Since 1950, there have been 6 cases where the AO dropped to -2.500 or below during the April 1-10 period, as happened on April 7. The mean April 16-30 temperature was 56.3° with a standard deviation of 2.3°. The latest guidance shows an estimated mean temperature of 56.2° for that period this year.

Beyond April 10, 7-10 days of generally cooler than normal to near normal readings are possible. However, the closing 7-10 days of the month could wind up warmer than normal. Overall, based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of a warmer than normal April remains approximately 60%.

On April 7, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.126 (RMM). The amplitude was below the April 6-adjusted figure of 0.311. That was the lowest amplitude since the MJO had an amplitude of 0.095 on September 21, 2018.

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8 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

72* still in Coney Island,  9:20pm

Watched people walking over the BB in just T-shirts, sometimes moving faster than my car could, on the way home!

Still dropping in the bx..down to 48. Didnt think it would get this cold this fast.

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26 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I was outside working on the uws when the backdoor came through and it was one of the most insane temp drops I have ever experienced. You could feel the cool air with with wind shift. There must have been a 15 temp drop in seconds 

I remember back door front passages in Long Beach where you could watch the stratus deck come in off the ocean and feel an instant temp drop. Wonder if this was one of those. 

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