Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

April 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


bluewave
 Share

Recommended Posts

The storm that brought light rain to much of the region, sleet pellets around New York City and snow in some parts of New York State and across portions of New England has departed. In response to the return of sunshine, temperatures soared well into the 60s across the New York City region.

Yesterday's snowfall amounts included: Albany: 2.1" (old daily record: 1.1", 1914); Binghamton: 0.4"; and, Burlington: 0.8.

Several warmer than normal to possibly much warmer than normal days now lie ahead.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.20°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.00°C for the week centered around March 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.96°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño should persist through April in Region 3.4.

The SOI was +13.84 today.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.184.

Since 1950, there have been four prior cases when the AO reached +2.500 or above during the last 10 days of March and then had four or more days with negative values during the first week of April. The mean temperature for the 4/1-10 period in New York City was 51.6° (standard deviation 1.8°). That is about 2 1/2 degrees warmer than climatology for the April 1-10 period (1950-2018). Consequently, based both on that historical data and the latest guidance, it is very likely that the April 1-10 period will wind up warmer than normal.

Beyond that, 7-10 days of generally cooler than normal to near normal readings is possible. However, the closing week of the month could wind up warmer than normal.

On April 5, the MJO moved was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.256 (RMM). The amplitude was little changed from the April 4-adjusted figure of 0.262.

Based on historical climatology, observed ongoing warming, and the latest ensemble guidance, it is very likely that the 32° temperature on March 18 will wind up becoming New York City's (Central Park) last freeze of the season.

Atlanta remains on track to receive no snowfall for the first time on record. Such an outcome is now very likely. The existing record is a trace of snow, which occurred during 24 winters. Snowfall records go back to winter 1928-29.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

In the wake of yesterday’s sleet and cold rain, today saw the sun return and temperatures soar to 67° in New York City. Some scenes from the New York Botanical Garden are below:

NYBG04062019-4.jpg

 

 

NYBG04062019-2.jpg

NYBG04062019-6.jpg

NYBG04062019-11.jpg

NYBG04062019-12.jpg

NYBG04062019-13.jpg

Yeah I notice many of cherry blossom and Magnolia trees around me are peak bloom now.  Last yr alot of them never really got going.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Models underestimated  the strength of the WAR/SE Ridge day 6-10. Check out how much stronger it will verify this week vs  the long range forecast. Probably an early signal that the April temperature departures will finish warmer than March. March has been one of the few months in recent years when the SE Ridge/WAR weakens.

New run

FBFF072A-4CEA-4A17-987C-C2BC9AB5079C.thumb.png.7ae28a0c43e9e214a14ad5d473f0fb89.png

Old run

455F7159-E785-4172-A162-38426C6AB99C.thumb.png.8024df3a3f1cf6836d77d789fb8fb74a.png

 

  • Like 5
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 4/5/2019 at 10:34 AM, jm1220 said:

No one can be thrilled with 40s and light rain/stratus, which we can easily have many days of in a backdoor pattern. 60s or 70s/sun is awesome. Hopefully on the north shore now there won’t be the Ambrose Jet frigid days Long Beach gets stuck with. 

I know this is from a few pages back: but I genuinely enjoy 40s and light rain/clouds for April. Minority opinion, to be sure, but I do enjoy it.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Hopefully it’s a variable summer with periods of heat but also periods of cooler weather with low humidity 

The Euro is going with warm along the East and West Coasts and cooler in the middle US. 

https://climate.copernicus.eu/charts/c3s_seasonal/c3s_seasonal_spatial_ecmf_2mtm_3m?facets=undefined&time=2019030100,2208,2019060100&type=ensm&area=area06

99F243E3-CA1E-40E5-80AC-52F2D3AB6AA7.png.ad32d5dea52616fc5ae13f571924d804.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

10 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Sounds humid and stormy.

I’ll take good thunderstorm action this year. Last year wasn’t too bad. The humidity is what’s going to be annoying for my line of work

Link to comment
Share on other sites

45 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

 

I’ll take good thunderstorm action this year. Last year wasn’t too bad. The humidity is what’s going to be annoying for my line of work

It’s like the Euro wants to lock in the pattern since the fall with some summer wavelength changes. Warmer near the coasts and cooler in the middle. The potential Upper Plains/Midwest blizzard this week is just a continuation of this long term pattern.

https://mobile.twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/1114865754615242753

 

7E4797B7-3A37-431A-9D97-4E352594548D.png.c0cbe3e16211f722008de6d9872110f6.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 4/6/2019 at 11:37 AM, purduewx80 said:

Tuesday is showing some greater potential for thunderstorms on some of the guidance, including the 06Z ECMWF, FV3 and 12Z NAM + RGEM as the upper trough and stronger cold front approach during the afternoon. Their timing would bring the front through late afternoon as temps warm back up into the 70s.

Models waffling on whether or not we stay in the warm sector Tuesday. Quite a bit of evidence a backdoor cold front ruins the party for most of the city while NJ could see another day in the 70s.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tomorrow and Tuesday will likely see much above normal readings across the northern Middle Atlantic region despite some rain to start the work week. A backdoor cold front could trim the readings on Long Island, coastal Connecticut, and perhaps even New York City. Areas just to the west of New York City in New Jersey could see high temperatures reach the lower or middle 70s both tomorrow and Tuesday. Some temperatures around 80° are possible farther south, especially in parts of Virginia, Maryland, and perhaps even southeastern Pennsylvania.

However, despite this unseasonable warmth, an area extending across northern New York State, northern Vermont, northern New Hampshire, and much of Maine could still experience accumulating snow. Caribou will likely pick up 4"-8" snow tomorrow into Tuesday, making winter 2018-19 that city's 3rd snowiest winter on record.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.20°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.00°C for the week centered around March 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.96°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño should persist through April in Region 3.4.

The SOI was +11.53 today.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.511. That preliminary reading is the lowest April AO value since April 27, 2016 when the AO was -3.291. Since 1950, there have been 6 cases where the AO dropped to -2.500 or below during the April 1-10 period. The mean April 16-30 temperature was 56.3° with a standard deviation of 2.3°. The latest guidance shows an estimated mean temperature of 56.2° for that period this year.

Also, since 1950 there have been four prior cases when the AO reached +2.500 or above during the last 10 days of March and then had four or more days with negative values during the first week of April. The mean temperature for the 4/1-10 period in New York City was 51.6° (standard deviation 1.8°). That is about 2 1/2 degrees warmer than climatology for the April 1-10 period (1950-2018). Consequently, based both on that historical data and the latest guidance, it is very likely that the April 1-10 period will wind up warmer than normal. The latest guidance suggests a range from 51.0° to 52.8°.

Beyond that, 7-10 days of generally cooler than normal to near normal readings are possible. However, the closing 7-10 days of the month could wind up warmer than normal. Overall, based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of a warmer than normal April is approximately 60%.

On April 6, the MJO moved back into Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.309 (RMM). The amplitude was a little higher than the April 5-adjusted figure of 0.256. Over the past 5 days, the MJO has been drifting between Phases 7 and 8 at a low amplitude.

Based on historical climatology, observed ongoing warming, and the latest ensemble guidance, it is very likely that the 32° temperature on March 18 will wind up becoming New York City's (Central Park) last freeze of the season. Given the latest data, this will be the last mention of New York City's final freeze of the winter 2018-19 season.

Atlanta remains on track to receive no snowfall for the first time on record. Such an outcome is now very likely. The existing record is a trace of snow, which occurred during 24 winters. Snowfall records go back to winter 1928-29.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

 

Based on historical climatology, observed ongoing warming, and the latest ensemble guidance, it is very likely that the 32° temperature on March 18 will wind up becoming New York City's (Central Park) last freeze of the season. Given the latest data, this will be the last mention of New York City's final freeze of the winter 2018-19 season.

 

Outer boroughs like the Bronx experienced freezes well after March 18.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...