Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,415
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Landia_Copeland
    Newest Member
    Landia_Copeland
    Joined
Hoosier

April 2019 Discussion

Recommended Posts

Looks like a scattered line of convection forming along I-57 in Illinois on some sort of trough with some svr storms back in Missouri this Sunday evening. Too little too late.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Really nice severe warned storm here. I stayed with it until it got too dark to photograph. Now it's putting on a nice light show. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A classic cloud-filtered sunshine day, with temps under-performing but not as much as Sat. The breeze was up and it wasn't bright out. What was suppose to be an incredible weekend to kick off true spring turned out to be a dud. Now both Monday and Tuesday have been trashed - a fitting winter getaway could only end when April ends.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

MLI making a run at the first 80 degree day today.  Been as warm as 79 on the 5 minute obs, which is probably 78.  Thursday is going to be interesting, as there's a good chance we get stuck in the cold 40s with east flow north of the front, or end up near 70 with a tor threat.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Absolute winner of a day today. Wednesday's chill and snow is going to suck, but it'll be more bearable since the snow and cold won't have been unrelenting well into the back half of April like last year. In 2018 I don't think we even had a decent stretch of 50+ degree days until the last 10 days of April, and then we pretty much flipped right to summer.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The euro is still teasing a snow event somewhere around here Sunday as the next low cuts northeastward.  Other models are less aggressive/farther southeast.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Don't see a colorful map like this often in April.  Have to admit been a nice couple days out around here.

US.png

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

12z Euro - Sunday storm

The 00z run had Cedar Rapids in the middle of the band, so it has shifted back southeast somewhat.

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019041012_111_5660_323.thumb.png.121f79c37e7c0d9fb35a4791c82b5d80.png

Looks like it could be a decent snowmaker for somebody, especially by mid April standards.

I think in a way, the current system is going to help the cause with this one.  A reservoir of sub 0C 850 mb temps will be left behind, so there will be less work to do from a dynamic cooling perspective.  Really it's just the lowest levels that will have to cool, and it looks like that will happen.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Got a shot at having the warmest day of the year so far tomorrow.  Some guidance is spitting out upper 70s... would be quite a swing from what it's going to be in the morning.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_52.thumb.png.3f84444c0747e1b5bee8b6691d69bf3e.png

 

Did I really just post the 84 hr NAM for snow in mid April?

Only cause we still have a shot at breaking the all-time snowiest season ever, I will approve of this long range NAM post! Ha! At least the Euro is not the complete lonely outlier.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Snowed here from 10pm to 2am but didnt stick. Had another snow burst this morning. North of Detroit a narrow band of 1-2" accumulated. This makes 77 days since Oct 20 that it had snowed. Nobody does nuisance snow or mood flakes like the Great Lakes lol. Ironically, more days saw flakes this season (77 days, 31.9") than last season (73 days, 62.5").

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yep, either the GFS is going to score a big coup or the NAM/EURO camp is going to nail a very decent wet snow event somewhere in eastern Iowa, or  Illinois. Yikes!

 

namconus_asnow_ncus_29.png

euro.png

2019041112_NAM_072_41.55,-91.08_winter_sfc.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Maybe a bit early to be talking amounts but I think it's looking good for band of several inches in the heaviest band.  The question is whether the several is 3-5" or more like 6+.    

Raw 2m temps on multiple models are showing temps of 32-34 even during primetime warming on Sunday afternoon.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Maybe a bit early to be talking amounts but I think it's looking good for band of several inches in the heaviest band.  The question is whether the several is 3-5" or more like 6+.    

Raw 2m temps on multiple models are showing temps of 32-34 even during primetime warming on Sunday afternoon.

Well we still have 72 hours or so to see if these thermals hold, and where exactly that defo band looks to setup. 12Z Euro, fairly similar to its 00z counterpart from my quick glance. 

 

12zeurom.png

12eurosn.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pretty impressive that the Euro has been consistent the past few days with showing 2m temps in the low to mid 30s under whereever that band sets up the during the afternoon heating on Sunday. Then, Spring break just southeast.

tem.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Have yet to get into the really warm air.  High will probably occur later than usual, maybe 5-6 pm as the warm front will be through here by then in addition to still having some lingering diurnal heating.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×