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April 2019 temperature forecast contest


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I wonder if anyone actually reads this post, I could really do well in the contest if I changed the format to actual instead of anomaly-based ... just kidding ...

So it's as always the nine locations and a forecast of departures from 1981-2010 normal values for

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

(forecasts in F deg relative to normals). 

The usual deadline and late penalties apply. Good luck !! 

 

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Table of forecasts for April 2019

 

FORECASTER _________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

Roger Smith __________________+2.5 _+2.0 _+1.8 __+3.0 _+3.0 _+3.0 ___+1.5 _+1.8 _+1.2

BKViking _____ (-2%) __________+2.3 _+1.7 _+1.1 __--0.6 _+1.9 _+1.4 ___--1.0 _+0.2 _+1.3

Stebo _______________________ +2.2 _+2.7 _+2.2 __+1.0 _+2.0 _+1.5 ___--1.5 _--1.0 _--1.0

wxallannj ____________________ +2.1 _+1.9 _+0.8 __+1.0 _+1.4 _--0.4 ___+1.2 _+0.5 _--0.6

wxdude64 ____ (-1%) _________ +2.1 _+1.8 _+1.7 __--1.1 _+1.8 _+1.6 ___--1.8 _+0.4 _+1.5

DonSutherland.1 ______________ +2.0 _+2.0 _+1.4 __+3.5 _+1.8 _+0.6 ___+1.0 _+1.6 _+2.0

 

___ Consensus ________________+2.0 _+1.9 _+1.4 __+1.0 _+1.8 _+1.4 ___+0.6 _+0.5 _+1.0

 

RodneyS _____________________+1.9 _+1.9 _+2.0 __+0.9 _+1.7 _+0.7 ___+1.1 _+1.8 _+1.5

hudsonvalley21 _______________ +1.8 _+2.2 _+1.7 __+1.8 _+2.1 _+1.9 ___--1.1 _--0.3 _+0.7

Tom ________________________+1.6 _+1.5 _+1.4 __+2.3 _+1.2 _+1.1 ___+0.6 _+0.5 _+0.5

Scotty Lightning _______________+1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 __+1.0 _+1.5 _+1.5 ____ 0.0 __0.0 _+0.5

RJay __________ (-10%) _______+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 __+2.0 _+1.7 _+1.0 ___ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0

 

___ Normal ___________________ 0.0 __0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

 

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April anomalies and forecasts ... 

 

______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

(8th) ______ (7d) _______+0.1 _+0.2 _+3.1 __ +3.1 _+1.6 _--1.4 __ +5.3 _+2.8 _+5.1

(15th) ____ (14d) _______+5.4 _+3.2 _+2.1 __ +0.9 _+5.5 _+0.2 __ +0.8 _+1.9 _+3.0

(22nd) ____(21 d) ______ +5.7 _+3.7 _+5.2 __ +1.7 _+2.8 _--0.8 __ +2.5 _+2.2 _+2.8

(29th) ____ (28 d) ______ +5.9 _+3.0 _+4.0 __ +1.5 _+2.9 _--0.3 __ +2.9 _+3.0 _+2.2

 

(8th) ______ (p14d) _____+2.5 _+2.0 _+2.0 __ +2.0 _+2.8 _+0.8 __ +1.8 _+1.4 _+3.0

(15th) _____ (p21d) _____+4.5 _+3.0 _+2.5 __ +1.5 _+5.0 _+0.5 __ +2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0

(22nd) _____ (p28d) _____+4.0 _+3.2 _+3.0 __ +2.5 _+3.0 __0.0 __ +2.5 _+3.0 _+2.0

 

(8th) ______ (p24d) _____ +2.5 _+2.0 _+2.0 __ +3.0 _+3.0 _+2.0 __ +0.5 _+1.0 _+1.5

(15th) _____ (p30d) _____ +3.5 _+3.0 _+2.5 __ +1.5 _+5.0 _+2.0 __ +2.5 _+2.5 _+0.5

(21st) _____ (p30d) _____ +3.5 _+3.0 _+2.5 __ +3.0 _+3.0 _+0.5 __ +2.5 _+2.5 _+1.5

(29th) _____ (p30d) _____ +5.6 _+2.5 _+3.5 __ +1.0 _+3.5 _+0.2 __ +2.0 _+2.5 _+2.0

 

(May 1) __ final _________ +5.5 _+2.4 _+3.6 __ +0.8 _+3.3 _+0.2 __ +1.7 _+2.6 _+2.1

 

______________________________________________________

15th _ Forecasts for the past week were mostly good if a bit conservative on changes, average error 1.1 but with large changes in anomaly, that's fairly good (and the conservative bias might have been more my input than NWS so it's on me). Projections to 21st mostly based on a subdued warmish regime although quite warm for both PHX and DEN at times. The extension to end of month based on GFS trends which look mainly like continuations of next week, although SEA shows a downward trend in general as west coast ridge shifts further inland. 

Too early for reliable provisional scoring, consensus score at present is 652/900, but changes likely in the snowfall contest which continues to be adjusted over in the March thread, will bring it here in a few days time when the current event in the Midwest is completed. 

22nd _ Posting some provisionals on the old projections as they seem fairly good approximations, after revising the central three -- will be away for a week to the 29th or even 30th now, so would not look for any further updates. Have posted some updates for 21 days and p28, leaving the p30 data as shown yesterday so the provisional scoring holds until I get back on the 30th from a planned week away. May thread is open. 

29th _ Late 29th on returning from holiday, I updated the anomalies and provisionals. Scoring is updated and will be finalized after 30th. 

May 1 _ Final anomalies posted above, scoring will be adjusted by noon EDT. 

 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Final scoring for April 2019

DCA scoring -- highest raw score is only 44, so scoring goes to max of 60 rule, then down in increments of 6 pts. Below 42 points, raw scores are higher than the progression, so those scores revert to normal scoring. 

Late penalties for 1 or 2 per cent are shown in one line, * for one point deducted and ** for two. 

 

FORECASTER _________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west_____TOTAL

 

RodneyS _____________________ 33 _ 90 _ 68 __ 191 __ 98 _ 68 _ 90 __256 __447 __ 88 _ 84 _ 88__ 260 _____ 707

Roger Smith __________________ 60 _ 92 _ 64 __216 __ 56_ 94 44 __194 __ 410 __ 96 84_ 82 __ 262 _____  672

DonSutherland.1 _______________35 _ 92 _ 56 __ 183 __ 46 _ 70 _ 92__ 208 __ 391 __ 86 _ 80 _ 98__ 264 _____ 655

 

___ Consensus ________________35 _ 90 _ 56 __ 181 __ 96 _ 70 _ 76 __ 242 __ 423 __ 78 _ 58 _ 78 __ 214 _____ 637

 

wxallannj ____________________ 42 _ 90 _ 44 __ 176 __ 96 _ 62 _ 88 __ 246 __ 422 __ 90 _ 58 _ 46 __ 194 _____ 616

BKViking _____ (-2%) __________ 53*_84** 49*__186 __ 71*_71* _74* _ 216 __402 __ 45*_51*_82**_ 178 _____ 580

Tom _________________________27 _ 82 _ 56 __ 165 __ 70 _ 58 _ 82 __ 210 __ 375 __ 78 _ 58 _ 68 __ 204 _____ 579

hudsonvalley21 ________________31 _ 96 _ 62 __ 189 __ 80 _ 76 _ 66 __ 222 __ 411 __ 44 _ 42 _ 72 __ 158 _____ 569

wxdude64 ____ (-1%) __________41*_ 87*_61*__ 189 __ 61*_ 69*_ 71*__201__ 390 __ 29*_55*_87*__171 _____ 561

Scotty Lightning _______________ 25 _ 72 _ 48 __ 145 __ 96 _ 64 _ 74 __ 234 __ 379 __ 66 _ 48 _ 68 __ 182 _____ 561

Stebo _______________________ 48 _ 94 _ 72 __ 214 __ 96 _ 74 _ 74 __ 244 __ 458 __ 36 _ 28 38 __ 102 _____ 560

RJay ________________________ 15 72 _ 48 __ 135 __ 76 _ 68 _ 84 __ 228 __ 363 __ 86 _ 68 _ 78 __ 232 _ 595

RJay __________ (-10%) _______ 14 65 _ 43 __ 122 __ 68 _ 61 _ 76 __ 205 __ 327 __ 77 _ 61 _ 70 __ 208 _____ 535

 

___ Normal ___________________ 00 _ 52 _ 28 __ 080 __ 84 _ 34 _ 96 __ 214 __ 294 __ 66 _ 48 _ 58 __ 172 _____ 466

___________________________________________________________

 

Extreme forecasts for April 2019

 

DCA, ATL and DEN (Roger Smith), BOS (Stebo), PHX (RodneyS tied with Roger Smith) and SEA (DonSutherland1) all finished above high forecast.

NYC (+2.4) was a win for hudsonvalley (+2.2) and a loss for Stebo (+2.7).

IAH at +0.2 is a win for DonS and a loss for wxallannj with low forecast. 

ORD finished near consensus and does not qualify.

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

<<<<< ===== ----- ----- ----- ----- Annual Contest Scoring Jan-Apr 2019 ----- ----- ----- ----- ===== >>>>>

 

A new look for the annual table this year, will continue with the all nine format of monthly scoring. Best score tallies will be handled in a separate table. From now to end of 2019, best scores will be tabulated for the eleven regular participants and this will continue with any new or temporary additions getting best scores in addition to those. 

Highest cumulative scores are shown in red in this table (for nine locations) or bold for subtotals. 

 

FORECASTER _____________DCA_NYC_BOS __east__ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __ c/e ___ DEN_PHX_SEA __west___all 9 TOTAL

 

RodneyS ________________ 221 _302 _298 __ 821 __230 _270 _334 __ 834 __1655 __ 295 _282 _224 __ 801 ____2456

DonSutherland.1 __________247 _346 _226 __ 819 __212 _232 _312 __ 756 __1575 __ 275 _298 _296__ 869____2444

 

___ Consensus ___________ 289 _356 _272 __ 917 __246 _246 _304 __ 796 __1713 __ 251 _262 _202 __ 715 ____2428

 

wxdude64 _______________285 _347 _291 __ 923 __289 _229 _295 __ 813__1736 __256 _253 _159 __668____ 2404

hudsonvalley21 ___________251 _360 _292 __ 903 __212 _264 _282 __ 758 __1661 __ 185 _272 _220 __ 677 ____2338

Roger Smith _____________ 318 _280_276 __ 874 __130 _244 _314 __ 688 __1562 __ 279 _246 _212 __ 737 ____2299

wxallannj ________________262 _314 _302 __ 878 __188 _282_302 __ 772 __1650 __ 206 _250 _160 __ 616 ____2266

Stebo ___________________283 _327 _310 __ 920 __242 _219 _275 __ 736 __1656 __ 227 _217 _125 __ 569 ____2225

BKViking _________________285 _354_266 __ 905 __227 _208 _265 __ 700 __1605 __ 219 _204 _161 __ 584 ____2189

Scotty Lightning ___________255 _306 _280 __ 841 __202 _260 _270 __ 732 __1573 __ 146 _224 _204 __ 574 ____2147

Tom ____________________195 _328 _224 __ 747 __ 296 _140 _306 __ 742 __1489 __ 173 _266 _202 __ 641 ____2130

RJay ____________________162 _246 _216 __ 624 __256 _185 _288 __ 729 __1353 __ 263 _279 _188 __ 730 ____2083

 

___ Normal ______________212 _316 _242 __ 770 __220 _170 _310 __ 700 __1470 __ 155 _271 _181 __ 607 ____2077

 

_______________________________________________________________________

Best scores in each category 

_ (nine locations, three regional subtotals, and central-eastern or "original six" subtotal (c/e) as well as all nine).

_ These are best scores in each monthly contest, best total scores are highlighted in the table above in red. Order for best scores will be based on rank in table above.

 

FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___all nine

 

RodneyS _______________ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___0 ___1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___1 ___0 ___ 1 ____ 1 _ APR

DonSutherland.1 _________0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___3 ___ 1 ____ 0

___Consensus ___________1 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

wxdude64 ______________ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 1

hudsonvalley21 __________0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ____ 1

Roger Smith ____________ 3 ___0 ___0 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___2 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___1 ___0 ___ 1 ____ 0

wxallannj _______________0 ___1 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

Stebo __________________1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 1

BKViking _______________ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

Scotty Lighning __________ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ____ 0

Tom ___________________0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

RJay ___________________0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

___ Normal _____________ 1 ___1 ___0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

__________________________________________________________________________________

 

Extreme forecasts  

 

STANDINGS to date in 2019 

 

Roger Smith _________ 7-2

DonSutherland1 ______ 6-0

RodneyS ____________ 4-2

Stebo ______________ 3-1

Scotty Lightning ______ 2-0

hudsonvalley21 _______1-0

RJay ________________1-0

Normal ______________1-0

Tom ________________1-1

wxallannj ____________1-1

______________________________________________________________________________

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