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Early April Winter Storm Discussion(LOL)

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44 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

If the storm tracks far enough west Garrett county could get quite the paste job.

Actually Eps has 17 or 18 members giving Garrett co a nice hit and a few that still keep n+w burbs in the game .

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2 hours ago, nj2va said:

I'll pass on 49 degree cold rain.

i mostly agree because i was really liking the drier ground today while getting a jog in.  we really don't need the rain, but coastals are still kinda fun.

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1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

There have been worse looks (purely snow wise) that I’ve been interested in.

c772a328535450b18e5aa735598029bd.jpg

9bcf321cfd3be569974b5540a6250720.jpg

I'll take what's left of center on #23. The gang of three all has a storm. There is a HP somewhere north of us ; the h5 looks doable, and the EURO seems to be generating it's own cold air. Stranger things have happened,  just not recently.

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1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

There have been worse looks (purely snow wise) that I’ve been interested in.

c772a328535450b18e5aa735598029bd.jpg

9bcf321cfd3be569974b5540a6250720.jpg

Interesting that exactly half the runs give me 2.0 inches or more of snow. Course, this is at 10-1 ratios and it is April, but I'll take those odds........

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So I saw this and was like hmmm...

238DB435-683C-4EE1-BBE8-EB8356A68BE1.thumb.png.9a8c84ac91cc9f89550121cc3e3c4cc0.png

then was disappointed to see it was all from one member...but oh what a member it was 

64451F1B-0B92-4CE4-87C2-381E35DD3C53.thumb.jpeg.cb214bc1695e7cf95d4c66246f7c831f.jpeg

I mean nothing like a 40” April snowstorm for the western burbs  

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36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So I saw this and was like hmmm...

238DB435-683C-4EE1-BBE8-EB8356A68BE1.thumb.png.9a8c84ac91cc9f89550121cc3e3c4cc0.png

then was disappointed to see it was all from one member...but oh what a member it was 

64451F1B-0B92-4CE4-87C2-381E35DD3C53.thumb.jpeg.cb214bc1695e7cf95d4c66246f7c831f.jpeg

I mean nothing like a 40” April snowstorm for the western burbs  

Well, we should never turn away a little ground water to help the water table.......:rolleyes:

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Definitely more NS influence on the ensembles day 5. This could mean maybe 2 things ...1 could be some partial phasing to pull our coastal west or it could act as a kicker but still to early. EPS  Mean snowfall went up again along i81 .

 

Eps  0z

 

Screenshot_20190329-073755_Chrome_crop_540x729.jpg

12z

Screenshot_20190329-073822_Chrome_crop_540x746.jpg

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1 hour ago, Wonderdog said:

The gang of three have appeared to come to an agreement for a wound up coastal on 4/3. Anyone have any precip maps?

Yea...the ops are actually misses west of 95 . We need a more tucked in low so we can get in the ccb preferably 

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Interesting progression on the ICON. The surface low hits a wall off the Virginia capes and then exits east. Given seasonal trend and the last coastal this might end up going a bit further west and North. Just hoping to get some wet flakes but places with elevation could score

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10 hours ago, peribonca said:

Interesting progression on the ICON. The surface low hits a wall off the Virginia capes and then exits east. Given seasonal trend and the last coastal this might end up going a bit further west and North. Just hoping to get some wet flakes but places with elevation could score

Gross. Wet flakes in April? Hard pass. 

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1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

^ 23 years to the day almost... I received 4.5" lol.

Yea except that run was about 20” lol 

 

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea except that run was about 20” lol 

 

Ludlum books say it can happen..... ( 20" might be a stretch but ...)

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Big three are trying to inch the coastal toward mid Atlantic region but it's a tough fight.  I for one would like to see a heavy rain storm from a nor'easter with temps in mid to upper 30's with dynamic  cooling lowering temps to 30 and the LP becomes cut off. And then I can use the toy one more time! Think it might help if this cool front stalls off the coast.

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2 hours ago, Wonderdog said:

Big three are trying to inch the coastal toward mid Atlantic region but it's a tough fight.  I for one would like to see a heavy rain storm from a nor'easter with temps in mid to upper 30's with dynamic  cooling lowering temps to 30 and the LP becomes cut off. And then I can use the toy one more time! Think it might help if this cool front stalls off the coast.

That would be nice actually.  I like your train of thought.  That toy deserves better than the winter we just got. 

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looks like the coastal misses right, then a nice stretch this week, then divergence.  fv3 has a vort underneath us around the 10th.  gfs has a cutter.  in both cases, it's too mild for snow, which i generally approve of at this point.  we'll see if a fluke happens around the 10th, otherwise, it looks like it might be time to pack it in.  C+ winter grade stays.

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Where's Ji ...snow creeping north lol.
 
Screenshot_20190331-105833_Chrome_crop_535x786.thumb.jpg.3120fb7c64e0b1576b6db30034d7a156.jpg


NAMs nailed the last coastal that ended up trending better for us... that ended up being a washout.

It’s been trending better for a little while. One eye open in CHO.

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Actually there's no doubt many west of 95 would have received some snow from this system if we could of got this thing to track tighter to the coast . Nams have parts of the Carolinas staying in the 30s Tuesday afternoon with some wet snow as do other models . That's some real rare territory we're talkin for April . There's still some time for us but that door is slamming shut fast . Maybe @WxWatcher007will organize a chase to the Carolinas :lol:

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3 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Actually there's no doubt many west of 95 would have received some snow from this system if we could of got this thing to track tighter to the coast . Nams have parts of the Carolinas staying in the 30s Tuesday afternoon with some wet snow as do other models . That's some real rare territory we're talkin for April . There's still some time for us but that door is slamming shut fast . Maybe @WxWatcher007will organize a chase to the Carolinas :lol:

Hoping I can get in a good chase this summer/fall.

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Man the Nam... If rates were a bit heavier it would be quite a nice snowfall just west of 95. Big shift and now within 42 hours of onset. Let's see what the other models opine. 

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Man the Nam... If rates were a bit heavier it would be quite a nice snowfall just west of 95. Big shift and now within 42 hours of onset. Let's see what the other models opine. 


it has my attention

3a15af9b477532a3da818d362ebf3848.jpg

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