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Early April Winter Storm Discussion(LOL)


Ji
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2 hours ago, Wonderdog said:

Big three are trying to inch the coastal toward mid Atlantic region but it's a tough fight.  I for one would like to see a heavy rain storm from a nor'easter with temps in mid to upper 30's with dynamic  cooling lowering temps to 30 and the LP becomes cut off. And then I can use the toy one more time! Think it might help if this cool front stalls off the coast.

That would be nice actually.  I like your train of thought.  That toy deserves better than the winter we just got. 

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looks like the coastal misses right, then a nice stretch this week, then divergence.  fv3 has a vort underneath us around the 10th.  gfs has a cutter.  in both cases, it's too mild for snow, which i generally approve of at this point.  we'll see if a fluke happens around the 10th, otherwise, it looks like it might be time to pack it in.  C+ winter grade stays.

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2 minutes ago, peribonca said:

I like tracking regardless of the precip type since I get to learn just much from the type of storm we have coming up. Right now all models are way under forecasting the moisture coming through LA MS and AL. It's not even close on any of them. 

well, 18z EURO gets precip further north and west by 20-30 miles compared to 12z. things are still shifting a little. Bigger deal for Boston, although it is 60 later that same day.

 

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1 hour ago, peribonca said:

I like tracking regardless of the precip type since I get to learn just much from the type of storm we have coming up. Right now all models are way under forecasting the moisture coming through LA MS and AL. It's not even close on any of them. 

This is true on the 00z GFS run there is almost nothing depicted under the inland center and all the development is supposed to take place with the coastal. Radar shows a different story.

I have a hunch this could surprise and bring 1-3" snowfalls to some areas in the Mid Atlantic. It's after midnight now so no April fool's joke intended. 

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The latest (and hopefully last for the season, ha.ha.) LWX forecast mention of s***:

(snip)

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High clouds are abundant at present, but low levels remain dry,
and temps have dropped into the 20s and 30s. There should be
some veiled sun this morning, but clouds will thicken this
afternoon as low pressure developing over the Carolina coast
moves northeastward. Expect rain to begin overspreading central
VA around midday and reach the metro late this afternoon, near
or during rush hour. The back edge looks like it will be near or
just west of the Blue Ridge, and the higher elevations there
will likely be just cold enough to see some snow, with a coating
possible along Skyline Drive and the Blue Ridge Parkway.
Elsewhere, just a chilly rain, mostly light, with amounts
generally less than a third of an inch. Highs today will be
mostly in the 40s and low 50s.

(snip)

 

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