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2019 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Thread

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RC, talked to the neighbor and he said he thought it was a funnel, past just north of 4000n rd near Grant Park

To me it looked like something was on the ground. Powerline was bent at county line and 8000.

Might be worth checking out

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2 minutes ago, King James said:

RC, talked to the neighbor and he said he thought it was a funnel, past just north of 4000n rd near Grant Park

To me it looked like something was on the ground. Powerline was bent at county line and 8000.

Might be worth checking out

Storms were heavily outflow dominated, but might have been a spin up.

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That new line rolling into the tri-state area of IA/WI/IL means business.  Quite a few wind damage reports have been rolling in, and now there's even a tor warning southwest of Dubuque.  SPC meso page has been showing steep mid-level lapse rates feeding in from the west, and helping to very quickly rebuild any instability lost from the earlier MCS.  Could get interesting down this was in the next hour or so.  :popcorn:

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5 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

That new line rolling into the tri-state area of IA/WI/IL means business.  Quite a few wind damage reports have been rolling in, and now there's even a tor warning southwest of Dubuque.  SPC meso page has been showing steep mid-level lapse rates feeding in from the west, and helping to very quickly rebuild any instability lost from the earlier MCS.  Could get interesting down this was in the next hour or so.  :popcorn:

They have quite the velo signature on radar right now.

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7 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

That new line rolling into the tri-state area of IA/WI/IL means business.  Quite a few wind damage reports have been rolling in, and now there's even a tor warning southwest of Dubuque.  SPC meso page has been showing steep mid-level lapse rates feeding in from the west, and helping to very quickly rebuild any instability lost from the earlier MCS.  Could get interesting down this was in the next hour or so.  :popcorn:

The western side will be intersecting an outflow boundary just west of the QC on SE thats very visible on radar.  Could provide additional focus.

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And with the initial complex I thought it was interesting that Clinton and Boone counties in Indiana were svr warned because of a pronounced gust front moving from west to east across those counties without any actual storm.

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3 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

The western side will be intersecting an outflow boundary just west of the QC on SE thats very visible on radar.  Could provide additional focus.

Yeah it's been interesting watching it stall out, and has started to retreat back northeast a bit.

76mph reported at the Dubuque ASOS.

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3 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

And with the initial complex I thought it was interesting that Clinton and Boone counties in Indiana were svr warned because of a pronounced gust front moving from west to east across those counties without any actual storm.

That outflow is already into Indy so it was moving.

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As the storms intersect the outflow boundary Jackstraw was referencing...

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA/IL  
600 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2019  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A  
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...  
  CEDAR COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...  
  NORTHWESTERN SCOTT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...  
  JOHNSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...  
  SOUTHERN JONES COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...  
  SOUTHERN LINN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...  
  CLINTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...  
  
* UNTIL 645 PM CDT.  
  
* AT 559 PM CDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE  
  EXTENDING FROM NEAR BELLEVUE TO NEAR STANWOOD TO NEAR NEWHALL,  
  MOVING SOUTH AT 45 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
  
  SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS.  
  
  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE   
           TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES,   
           ROOFS, AND OUTBUILDINGS.  
  
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
  CEDAR RAPIDS, IOWA CITY, CLINTON, MAQUOKETA, TIPTON, WEST BRANCH,  
  MECHANICSVILLE, STANWOOD, MARION, CORALVILLE, NORTH LIBERTY,  
  HIAWATHA, DEWITT, MOUNT VERNON, CAMANCHE, BELLEVUE, LISBON,  
  FAIRFAX, SOLON AND TIFFIN.  
  
THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...  
 INTERSTATE 80 IN IOWA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 230 AND 279.  
 INTERSTATE 380 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 25.  
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
  
THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING   
WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE   
AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!  

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9 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Nice little MCS here in CR. Had numerous 50-60mph wind gusts as the gust front passed through.

Same here.  I was outside taking a hummingbird feeder down when the gust front hit.  I just held on.

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA/IL  
622 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2019  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A  
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  ROCK ISLAND COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...  
  MERCER COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...  
  WHITESIDE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...  
  HENRY COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...  
  WESTERN BUREAU COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  LOUISA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...  
  SOUTHERN CEDAR COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...  
  SCOTT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...  
  SOUTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...  
  WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...  
  MUSCATINE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...  
  SOUTHEASTERN CLINTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...  
  
* UNTIL 700 PM CDT.  
  
* AT 622 PM CDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE  
  EXTENDING FROM NEAR CHARLOTTE TO NEAR ROCHESTER TO AMANA, MOVING  
  SOUTH AT 45 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS.  
  
  SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS.  
  
  IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO   
           MOBILE HOMES, ROOFS, AND OUTBUILDINGS.  
  
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
  DAVENPORT, IOWA CITY, MOLINE, ROCK ISLAND, BETTENDORF, MUSCATINE,  
  EAST MOLINE, STERLING, KEWANEE, ROCK FALLS, WASHINGTON, MORRISON,  
  ALEDO, CAMBRIDGE, WAPELLO, COLUMBUS JUNCTION, DURANT, SILVIS,  
  GENESEO AND ELDRIDGE.  
  
IF YOU ARE AT HENRY COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS IN CAMBRIDGE, OR DAVENPORT  
AIRPORT YOU SHOULD SEEK SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!  
  
THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...  
 INTERSTATE 74 IN IOWA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 5.  
 INTERSTATE 80 IN IOWA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 276 AND 306.  
 INTERSTATE 80 IN ILLINOIS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 45.  
 INTERSTATE 74 IN ILLINOIS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 33.  
 INTERSTATE 88 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 43.  
 INTERSTATE 280 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 18.  
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
  
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
STURDY BUILDING.  
  
THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING   
WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE   
AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!  
  
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS, AND MAY LEAD TO  
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.  
  
 

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL  
651 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2019  
   
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION  
  
555 PM CDT  
  
FLIPPING THE CALENDAR BACK EXACTLY FIVE YEARS AGO TODAY PROVIDES   
A GUIDE FOR HOW THE REST OF THE EVENING COULD EVOLVE, ALTHOUGH   
MAINLY WEST OF THE I-39 CORRIDOR RATHER THAN ACROSS THE KANKAKEE   
VALLEY AS IT DID FIVE YEARS AGO. THOUGH HOPEFULLY THINGS WILL NOT   
GET QUITE AS ACTIVE AS THAT EVENT.   
  
THE CONCERN IS THE APPROACHING CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS MOVING IN  
FROM SOUTHWEST WI. SPC MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS AN AXIS OF LARGE   
INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN IL WHILE AREAS IN THE   
WAKE OF TODAY'S FIRST EVENT ARE MORE WORKED OVER. WE DO NOT   
HOWEVER KNOW WITH CONFIDENCE HOW SHALLOW THE STABLE LAYER MIGHT   
BE. WE DO KNOW THERE HAS ALREADY BEEN ONE TORNADO WARNING ISSUED   
UPSTREAM. 0-1KM SRH VALUES ON THE MESOANALYSIS PAGE IN THE 100-200  
M2/S2 RANGE ACROSS THAT AREA ARE NOT TERRIBLY HIGH, BUT LIKE FIVE  
YEARS AGO THESE ARE PROBABLY UNDERDONE BY QUITE A BIT BASED ON   
THE UNREPRESENTATIVE AND TOO SLOW STORM MOTION AROUND 15 KTS USED   
TO CALCULATE THESE VALUES. INSTEAD THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE   
HAS BEEN MOVING CLOSER TO 50 KTS WHICH WOULD GREATLY RAMP UP THE   
SRH VALUES AND SUPPORT A GREATER TORNADIC THREAT THAN MIGHT   
OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED.   
  
THIS OF COURSE DEPENDS ON THE STABLE SURFACE LAYER BEING SHALLOW   
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASED PARCELS, AND THAT  
REMAINS THE KEY QUESTION AT THIS TIME. A COUPLE OF AMDAR   
SOUNDINGS OUT OF MDW AND ORD SUGGEST THE STABLE LAYER IS AROUND   
2000' DEEP AT THIS TIME, WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS ACTIVITY   
AT THE SURFACE, BUT THIS IS FARTHER DOWNSTREAM OF THE APPROACHING   
CLUSTER AND MORE RECENTLY AFFECTED BY THE FIRST ROUND OF ACTIVITY.  
THE OTHER HINT OF A LINGERING SURFACE STABLE LAYER IS THE   
WIDESPREAD AP SEEN ON RADAR TO OUR WEST, THOUGH THIS ALSO WAS   
PRESENT DURING THE 2014 EVENT UP TO THE TIME THAT TORNADOES   
STARTED TO DEVELOP.   
  
WHAT ISN'T AS EVIDENT THIS EVENING SO FAR IS THE LOCATION OF A   
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE FIRST EVENT, WHICH WOULD SERVE   
TO FOCUS THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADIC ACTIVITY. SO FOR NOW THE   
TORNADO THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE HIGH RELATIVE TO A RENEWED   
DAMAGING WIND THREAT, BUT IF OUTFLOW FROM THE INITIAL STORMS TODAY  
MANAGES TO EVOLVE INTO AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT ACROSS NW IL THEN   
THINGS COULD GET MORE ACTIVE.  
  
ANOTHER KEY FACTOR THAT IS MISSING RELATIVE TO FIVE YEARS AGO IS   
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO ASSIST IN ORGANIZATION AND   
MAINTENANCE OF THE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. WINDS AT 500MB ARE ONLY   
IN THE 25-30KT RANGE.  
  
THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS THAT THE STRONGEST PART OF THE SYSTEM   
STAYS WEST OF OUR AREA AND BEGINS TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO   
THE RELATIVELY MORE STABLE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS OVER US. BUT WE ARE   
JUST TRYING TO CONVEY THE FULL RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES.  
  
LENNING  

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36 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

LOT posted this pic on their website.  From Polo, IL

TimBejster_ShelfCloud_Polo.thumb.jpg.8e925e6e544f3007c2b67783a0e9b902.jpg

Well it is almost independence day.:lol:

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interesting storm report

 
0134 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNE BIG ROCK          41.79N 88.53W  
06/30/2019                   KANE               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER    
  
            VIDEO AND DETAILED DESCRIPTION SHOWING TWO   
            WELL-DEFINED GUSTNADOS AT THE CORNER OF   
            SCOTT AND DAUBERMAN ROADS. DEBRIS WAS BLOWN   
            OVER 3/4 OF A MILE TO THE SOUTH.   
  

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Decent hit today here with the first MCS. Ended up with some smaller tree branches down in the area, estimated winds up to around 60mph.

Have been without power since the storms hit...Not due to the winds, but instead lighting. A tree was struck across the way, and took down a power pole and lines, and it all caught on fire.


.

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SPC has introduced a marginal risk for the lower Great Lakes with possible upgrade to slight risk on the 06z outlook overnight tonight.

IWX_swody2.png

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Skirts just to my north.  Storms have surrounded this area the past week but no love here in N Central IN except the occasional diurnal light show like a poor kid watching the rich kids shoot off fireworks from afar :whistle:.  I'll be moving this discussion to the complaint thread if this pattern persists lol.

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0z 3km NAM solution different than the 18z. Depicts a more extensive squall line by tomorrow evening.

0z 3km NAM Radar Valid 10 PM Tuesday.JPG

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I just drove through what I believe to be a weak tornado but radar signature doesn’t really show it. Could have been straight line wind but it it was certainly spinning around me. I was just on my commute home when in a split second I was in it. Only about a mile from home. My truck was lifting, no hail, got home and saw my plate which definitely wasn’t like that when I left the office. Went back to where it was happening and the pictured damage is there. Rural Winnebago county between Roscoe and Machesney Park. faabab8414e50cc2240f475e32c05169.jpg3e9ac5ed764f1597beaddb7eef0cb4bb.jpgc5e7cfde4e4cd5a2f665461ca96f8e6b.jpga81b44192fe95bb328e5da85d783edd3.jpg

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Well at least an officer on the side of the road wont have trouble reading it lol.  That's crazy. Never seen "plate" damage before.

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Mike Ryan at IND mentions the concern of a rotating storm or two tomorrow afternoon in their CWA. However, although SPC mentions it, they keep the low threat much farther south.

REMAIN A TOUCH CONCERNED ABOUT A THREAT FOR A FEW CELLS TO ROTATE WITH FAVORABLE HODOGRAPH PROFILES...INCREASED SHEAR AND HELICITY 
VALUES...AND LCLS LIKELY TO SETTLE NEAR 1000FT...ESPECIALLY BY LATE DAY. OVERALL INSTABILITY LEVELS MAY NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH TO 
SUPPORT...BUT CONSIDERING THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS AND THAT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IS LIKELY TO BE TO THE RIGHT OF 
THE WEAKENING SURFACE WAVE TRACK WHERE SHEAR MAY BRIEFLY MAXIMIZE...THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON TUESDAY.

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This is the Barry remnant.  Although wind fields aloft are weakening, could have just enough shear for something.  Wouldn't be shocked as it doesn't take much in these situations.

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