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2019 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Thread


snowlover2
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Surprised SPC didn't issue a 2% tor threat from IL to parts of OH.  These remnant circulations have a tendency to overachieve with lots of remnant vorticity.  As Hoosier mentioned wind profiles aren't all that impressive, but they look good enough for the potential to see several tors this afternoon/early eve.

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3 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Surprised SPC didn't issue a 2% tor threat from IL to parts of OH.  These remnant circulations have a tendency to overachieve with lots of remnant vorticity.  As Hoosier mentioned wind profiles aren't all that impressive, but they look good enough for the potential to see several tors this afternoon/early eve.

We'll see what happens in the next update.  As IWX mentioned Mike Ryan at IND is aware of the situation.  Good chunk of se IN from Evansville to Ft. Wayne in marginal risk with cells starting to pop in the PAH area moving ne. 78/71 here just before noon with south wind at 16 gusting to 23.  Intermittent sun and clouds.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
1247 PM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  NORTH CENTRAL HOPKINS COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN KENTUCKY...  
  CENTRAL WEBSTER COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN KENTUCKY...  
  
* UNTIL 115 PM CDT.  
      
* AT 1247 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
  TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR PROVIDENCE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
  
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
  DIXON AROUND 100 PM CDT.  
  
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE  
SLAUGHTERS.  

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
113 PM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHWESTERN SPENCER COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA...  
  NORTH CENTRAL DAVIESS COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN KENTUCKY...  
  
* UNTIL 145 PM CDT.  
      
* AT 113 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED NEAR STANLEY, OR NEAR OWENSBORO, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30  
  MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
  
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
  ROCKPORT AROUND 130 PM CDT.  
  
THIS INCLUDES AUDUBON PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 21 AND 23.  
   

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2 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

Per IWX, it was a national blackout affecting all NWS services. Everything's been moved to backup and should be available now.

Thanks.  With the recent Manhattan outage it really does make me worry about the status of our infrastructure in many areas of concern.

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Also mentioned possibly a derecho.                     

  Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0736 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

   Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST-CENTRAL MN
   AND NORTHERN WI...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms with strong tornadoes
   and potentially widespread significant wind damage may occur from
   central Minnesota across northern Wisconsin during the mid-afternoon
   to evening.

   ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
   Upgrading to Moderate Risk this outlook for the potential threats of
   multiple strong tornadoes and a derecho later this afternoon and
   evening. CAPE/shear/SRH parameter space in this region is forecast
   to be exceptionally rare for mid July amid a predominately zonal
   flow regime across the northern states.

   A convective cluster is ongoing across north-central SD aided by
   warm/moist advection around 700 mb along a pronounced baroclinic
   zone. 00Z CAM guidance had a decent handle on this activity earlier
   this morning and are consistent with a decaying trend through late
   morning as advection shifts east amid pronounced MLCIN as sampled by
   the 12Z Aberdeen sounding. There is a low confidence scenario that a
   strong enough cold pool is becoming established with this early-day
   cluster such that total decay does not occur. If this occurs, robust
   boundary-layer heating downstream may be sufficient for an
   increasing threat during the afternoon of strong to severe wind
   gusts. This could still yield a scattered to widespread damaging
   wind scenario, albeit in an earlier time frame than progged by
   guidance.

   The more probable scenario is for an extremely unstable air mass
   (MLCAPE > 4000 J/kg) to become established to from southeast SD
   through central/southern WI as the elevated mixed-layer overspreads
   surface dew points rising into the mid to upper 70s. A surface
   cyclone over central SD should track towards the Twin Cities through
   early evening. Strong low-level convergence near/northeast of this
   cyclone along the warm front should sustain surface-based storm
   development across central into east-central MN. Once initiation
   occurs, intense supercells will develop rapidly, with an attendant
   threat for all severe hazards including strong tornadoes amid 50-60
   kt effective shear and 0-3 km SRH > 300 m2/s2. The very warm/moist
   thermodynamic profiles will also support generation of strong cold
   pools which should eventually yield a bowing, forward-propagating
   MCS across northern WI into parts of northern Lower and Upper MI.
   Strength of the vertical shear suggests the potential for intense
   bowing segments capable of yielding a derecho with significant
   severe wind gusts
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  • 4 weeks later...

I just saw a funnel cloud from my house... my first ever.  I was outside at the end of my street, in an open area, when I saw what appeared to be a funnel dipping out of a small cell that had just popped.  It drifted south and became better defined for 5+ minutes, then dissipated just as the sirens went off.  It apparently came 3/4 of the way to the ground.  The NWS is asking if anyone saw it touch down.  Here in the city my view of the horizon was obstructed .

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18 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I just saw a funnel cloud from my house... my first ever.  I was outside at the end of my street, in an open area, when I saw what appeared to be a funnel dipping out of a small cell that had just popped.  It drifted south and became better defined for 5+ minutes, then dissipated just as the sirens went off.  It apparently came 3/4 of the way to the ground.  The NWS is asking if anyone saw it touch down.  Here in the city my view of the horizon was obstructed .

I didn’t see it, but I know a few people that did. 

C80739A7-C33B-4583-ABA1-142F76EB744A.jpeg

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