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2019 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Thread


snowlover2
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slight risk nudged south into N IL

 
..UPPER MS VALLEY  
  
A LARGE MCS CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF MN TODAY,  
WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION AFFECTING NORTHERN IA AND FAR  
WESTERN WI.  A RESERVOIR OF VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR RESIDES OVER  
MUCH OF IA/IL, AND SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE  
CONVECTION INTO SOUTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON.  THE LARGE COLD POOL  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS, COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT  
AND AMPLE CAPE WILL PROMOTE RE-INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WILL MAINTAIN THE SLGT AND ENH RISK AREAS,  
BUT WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR TENDENCY OF CONVECTION TO  
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE MCS.

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33 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The HRRR can be a good model, but it appears to be terrible with these low-shear, cold-pool-driven MCSs.  The model struggles to see them and refuses to keep them going beyond the first couple hours of each run.

It's not just the HRRR. All guidance has struggled badly, both yesterday and today.

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Slight risk added to parts of the north/west sub for tomorrow.

Quote

..UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS  
 
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS  
WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH  
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED  
BY A COLD FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHWEST MN TO WESTERN NE BY  
12Z SUNDAY. BY 00Z THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN UPPER  
PENINSULA OF MI THROUGH SOUTHERN MN AND INTO WESTERN NE WHERE IT  
WILL REMAIN STATIONARY. A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE ADVANCED NORTH AND  
SHOULD STRETCH FROM NORTHEAST MN THROUGH CENTRAL WI AND INTO THE OH  
VALLEY.  
 
THOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY ON THE LOCATION/TIMING, AN MCS SHOULD BE  
ONGOING JUST NORTH /EAST OF THE WARM FRONT FROM EASTERN MN INTO  
NORTHERN OR CENTRAL WI. THIS FEATURE MAY POSE AN ONGOING THREAT FOR  
MAINLY DAMAGING WIND. THE WARM SECTOR WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE  
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A PLUME OF STEEPER (7-7.5 C/KM) MID-LEVEL  
LAPSE SPREADING EAST ABOVE A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH  
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S F CONTRIBUTING TO 3000-3500 J/KG MLCAPE.  
DIABATIC WARMING OF THE SURFACE LAYER SHOULD OCCUR DOWNSTREAM OF THE  
MCS AND REINTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE  
STORMS ADVANCE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WI AND  
INTO IL ALONG AND JUST TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT. DAMAGING  
WIND AND HAIL ARE EXPECTED AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES SOUTHWARD THROUGH  
NORTHERN IL. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS  
SOUTHERN MN INTO SOUTHEAST SD DURING THE AFTERNOON. WIND PROFILES  
WITH WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL FAVOR MULTICELLS, BUT THE  
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND  
AND LARGE HAIL.

 

swody2_categorical.png

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12 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

The hrrr doesn’t have a clue. Completely dissipates the mcs in Wisconsin in the next hour

And I'm wondering if SPC is leaning heavily upon it because they don't currently anticipate a new watch to the se.  I would be watching the instability gradient.

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Just now, Indystorm said:

And I'm wondering if SPC is leaning heavily upon it because they don't currently anticipate a new watch to the se.  I would be watching the instability gradient.

Yeah was puzzled that they weren't anticipating a new watch.  The MCS is maintaining, and is only moving into a more favorable environment.  

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
109 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     TSTM WND GST     ROCKFORD AIRPORT        42.20N 89.10W
06/30/2019  M63 MPH          WINNEBAGO          IL   ASOS

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13 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
109 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     TSTM WND GST     ROCKFORD AIRPORT        42.20N 89.10W
06/30/2019  M63 MPH          WINNEBAGO          IL   ASOS

Gusted to 58mph IMBY 

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O.CON.KLOT.SV.W.0072.000000T0000Z-190630T1915Z/  
LAKE IL-KANE IL-MCHENRY IL-DUPAGE IL-COOK IL-  
149 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2019  
  
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CDT  
FOR LAKE...EASTERN KANE...EASTERN MCHENRY...DUPAGE AND NORTHERN COOK  
COUNTIES...  
  
AT 148 PM CDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE  
EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES EAST OF NORTH CHICAGO TO HIGHLAND PARK TO  
ITASCA TO CAROL STREAM TO NEAR MAPLE PARK, MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS.  
  
SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. 67 MPH WINDS WERE REPORTED IN   
         ROSELLE IN DU PAGE COUNTY,   
  
IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MOBILE   
         HOMES, ROOFS, AND OUTBUILDINGS. POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE.  
  
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
CHICAGO, AURORA, NAPERVILLE, ELGIN, WAUKEGAN, CICERO, ARLINGTON  
HEIGHTS, EVANSTON, SCHAUMBURG, BOLINGBROOK, PALATINE, SKOKIE, DES  
PLAINES, BERWYN, MOUNT PROSPECT, WHEATON, HOFFMAN ESTATES, OAK PARK,  
DOWNERS GROVE AND GLENVIEW.  
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
  
THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE ACROSS MUCH OF   
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND   
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.  

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE  
213 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2019  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A  
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  WILL COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...  
  KANKAKEE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...  
  DUPAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...  
  COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...  
  NORTHWESTERN LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN INDIANA...  
  
* UNTIL 330 PM CDT.  
  
* AT 211 PM CDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE  
  EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF HIGHLAND PARK TO NEAR  
  SHOREWOOD, MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS.  
  
  SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS.  
  
  IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO   
           MOBILE HOMES, ROOFS, AND OUTBUILDINGS.  
  
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
  CHICAGO, AURORA, JOLIET, NAPERVILLE, ELGIN, CICERO, HAMMOND,  
  ARLINGTON HEIGHTS, EVANSTON, SCHAUMBURG, BOLINGBROOK, PALATINE,  
  SKOKIE, DES PLAINES, ORLAND PARK, TINLEY PARK, OAK LAWN, BERWYN,  
  MOUNT PROSPECT AND WHEATON.  
  
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...  
 I-55 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 236 AND 294.  
 I-57 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 303 AND 358.  
 I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 125 AND 155.  
 I-88 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 122 AND 140.  
 I-90 NEAR MILE MARKER 22.  
 I-94 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 31 AND 74.  
 I-290 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 29.  
 I-294 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 31 AND 74.  
 I-355 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 30.  
 INDIANA I-90 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 2.  
   
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
  
THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING WIDESPREAD   
WIND DAMAGE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLNOIS. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A   
STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!   
  
WIND DAMAGE WITH THESE STORMS WILL OCCUR BEFORE ANY RAIN OR   
LIGHTNING. DO NOT WAIT FOR THE SOUND OF THUNDER BEFORE TAKING COVER.  
  
  
  

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE  
301 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2019  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A  
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHEASTERN KANKAKEE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...  
  CENTRAL FORD COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  NORTHERN IROQUOIS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  
* UNTIL 345 PM CDT.  
  
* AT 300 PM CDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE  
  EXTENDING FROM MOMENCE TO ST. ANNE TO NEAR CLIFTON TO 7 MILES WEST  
  OF ASHKUM, MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.  
  
  THESE ARE VERY DANGEROUS STORMS.  
  
  HAZARD...80 MPH WIND GUSTS.  
  

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6 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

Second line back in SE MN/W WI with a couple warnings including a tornado warning west of Albert Lea MN

Wind shear and helicity are much stronger back with that second line, although I wonder how it will perform if it moves over areas already worked over by the first MCS.  It certainly bears watching, especially if recovery occurs.

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Sub severe here at my place, but the winds are roaring...constantly been that way for about 10 minutes. Not like the usual “short” burst you get. But, my girlfriend is in Manteno and they apparently got rocked pretty good. Trees down and a bunch of stuff went flying with the winds there. 

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Wildest weather I’ve ever seen. Trees and power lines down everywhere near Grant Park IL. The clouds were on the freaking ground! You could see them roaring across the field. Never seen anything like the skies I just saw

 

Power is out. Wild stuff. Clouds were literally on the ground. No rain.

 

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