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2019 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Thread


snowlover2
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Mesoscale Discussion 1079
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0628 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

   Areas affected...south-central and southeast IN

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 360...

   Valid 152328Z - 160030Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 360 continues.

   SUMMARY...The potential for a mature supercell to continue east past
   I-65 is relatively high and may continue to pose a risk for
   tornadoes despite cooler surface temperatures.  If this occurs, a
   small tornado watch to the east of tornado watch 360 will be
   considered for parts of southeast IN and the IN/KY/OH tri-state area
   to address this threat.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a cumulus field beneath
   broken high-level cloud cover over southeast IN.  Surface
   temperatures near the greater Louisville/Kentuckiana portion of the
   OH River are in the lower 80s but cooler conditions are noted
   farther northeast near Cincinnati (lower 70s).  There is uncertainty
   how far the supercell tornado risk will continue into southeast IN. 
   The primary supercell over Monroe County, IN provides the greatest
   probability for this to occur.  Convective/mesoscale trends will be
   monitored over the next 1-2 hours as the south-central IN activity
   moves to the east edge of tornado 360.

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back west

RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 362  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
710 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2019  
  
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A  
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF   
  SOUTHEAST IOWA  
  NORTHWEST AND WESTERN ILLINOIS  
  FAR EASTERN KANSAS  
  NORTHERN MISSOURI  
  
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 710 PM  
  UNTIL 200 AM CDT.  
  
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...  
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY  
  SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE  
  A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE  

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12 tornadoes today, widely scattered across the country. The tornado reported in Texas didn't look like it was from a mesocyclone.

edit;
another confirmed tornado in Indiana

Quote

At 835 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located 8 miles east of 
Columbus, moving northeast at 30 mph. A brief touchdown was reported 
in rural east central Bartholomew county.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

 

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN  
857 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2019  
  
INC139-160115-  
/O.CON.KIND.TO.W.0042.000000T0000Z-190616T0115Z/  
RUSH IN-  
857 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2019  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM EDT FOR  
SOUTHEASTERN RUSH COUNTY...  
      
AT 857 PM EDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER RUSHVILLE, OR 15   
MILES WEST OF CONNERSVILLE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. DAMAGE   
REPORTED SOUTH OF RUSHVILLE.  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  
SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
  
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
         SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE   
         TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE DAMAGE IS   
         LIKELY.  
  
THIS TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  
  GLENWOOD AROUND 910 PM EDT.  

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14 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

The supercell out ahead of the main line, north of Burlington IA looks like it wants to put down a tor.  

blended into the line but..

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA/IL  
824 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2019  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHEASTERN HENDERSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  SOUTHWESTERN MERCER COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...  
  NORTHEASTERN DES MOINES COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...  
  SOUTHEASTERN LOUISA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...  
  
* UNTIL 900 PM CDT.  
      
* AT 824 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED OVER OAKVILLE, OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WAPELLO, MOVING  
  EAST AT 25 MPH.  
  

 

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https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1085.html

Mesoscale Discussion 1085
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0948 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

   Areas affected...Northern Missouri...eastern Kansas...and western
   Illinois

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 362...

   Valid 160248Z - 160345Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 362
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues for WW 362. Additional watches
   are being considered.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows a line of storms has developed a
   weak cold front extending from portions of western Illinois into
   northern Missouri and far eastern Kansas. In addition, a fairly well
   developed MCV is now associated with the northern end of this
   activity, now tracking into northern Illinois, and storms here are
   beginning to bow out. A few reports of large hail (1-1.5 inches in
   diameter) and strong wind gusts (60 mph) have occurred this evening.

   Given the ample supply of low-level moisture (high 60s to low 70s F
   dew point temperatures), instability (1500-3000+ J/kg MLCAPE), and
   deep-layer shear (40-45 kt effective bulk shear), the ongoing storms
   should continue to pose a severe threat, particularly across
   portions of north-central Illinois where a damaging wind threat may
   be emerging and thus, a new watch may be needed. Additional storms
   may develop farther west along the front extending into southeast
   Kansas, and thus may require an additional watch here.

   ..Karstens.. 06/16/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
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Woman tells how he survived tornado by hanging onto tree near Ellettsville, Indiana


Nicole Rood tells how she survived a tornado by holding onto the door handle of a house as she was lifted off the ground in the 6400 block of West Cowden Rd., Saturday, June 16, 2019 near Ellettsville, Ind. Rood's boyfriend Brett Cantrell survived by hanging onto a tree across the road. The couple were in their car when the storm stuck, and exited their car to find a safe place. The tornado destroyed several homes, tore up trees, and left dangerous live power lines scattered around the area.

https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/video/nicole-rood-tells-how-she-survived-a-tornado-by-holding-news-footage/1156231248?adppopup=true

 

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17 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

 

A20B3FF9-E0D3-4198-ACFA-40FDA8EDAF35.png

Have they completed the storm surveys yet for these tornadoes from yesterday?

CC maxed out at 24,000 feet with this and there was a debris fallout evident on radar as well. That’s highly suggestive of an high-end EF3 to EF4 tornado.

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15 minutes ago, DanLarsen34 said:

Have they completed the storm surveys yet for these tornadoes from yesterday?

CC maxed out at 24,000 feet with this and there was a debris fallout evident on radar as well. That’s highly suggestive of an high-end EF3 to EF4 tornado.

They are out today....

https://www.weather.gov/ind/jun15stormsurvey

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I'm starting to take a rather keen interest in Friday and Saturday for the potential of significant severe weather. A fairly potent upper level system should be centered over the Northern Rockies leaving a belt of seasonally impressive 40-50kt 500mb flow over western parts of the subforum. Friday seems like a fairly typical midwestern warm front setup and the shear parameters along this warm front and at the TP could be quite good with both the FV3 and the legacy GFS indicating 0-1km SRH values of at least 250 m2/s2. Only things I don't like at this range are the weak anvil level winds and poor low level lapse rates(though mid level lapse rates look good at this time courtesy of an EML). Saturday is a bit more of a wild card and obviously depends on how Friday turns out, but the look at 500mb isn't terrible, so I think there's some potential that day as well.


EDIT: I've also noticed that PWATs are quite high (~2.00in) and with a strong low level jet and a warm front, probably some potential for training heavy rainfall.

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3 minutes ago, hlcater said:

I'm starting to take a rather keen interest in Friday and Saturday for the potential of significant severe weather. A fairly potent upper level system should be centered over the Northern Rockies leaving a belt of seasonally impressive 40-50kt 500mb flow over western parts of the subforum. Friday seems like a fairly typical midwestern warm front setup and the shear parameters along this warm front and at the TP could be quite good with both the FV3 and the legacy GFS indicating 0-1km SRH values of at least 250 m2/s2. Only things I don't like at this range are the weak anvil level winds and poor low level lapse rates(though mid level lapse rates look good at this time courtesy of an EML). Saturday is a bit more of a wild card and obviously depends on how Friday turns out, but the look at 500mb isn't terrible, so I think there's some potential that day as well.

Sunday would be included as well especially with the Euro.

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