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2019 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Thread


snowlover2
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2 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

..Lower Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest...
   Across northeastern Missouri into the vicinity of a warm frontal
   zone across parts of eastern Iowa and northern Illinois, it appears
   that an area of enhanced forcing (associated with a convectively
   generated or enhanced mid-level cyclonic vorticity center now
   developing northeast of the Kansas City area) may still support an
   upscale growing convective system later this evening into the
   overnight hours.  This may be accompanied by another swath of strong
   to severe wind gusts.
 

 its turning more east ...not sure how far north it will make it into N IL...at least the bow part......

of course WAA wing cells may form too though

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9 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

New LOT afd is pretty pessimistic.

This is what I was afraid of earlier ......models missed that and it messed up what they were showing for later

THUS FAR, CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED MIGHTILY TO SUSTAIN ITSELF IN A  
WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT WITH POTENTIAL LINGERING SUBSIDENCE FROM  
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON'S COMPLEX.

 

new development over MLI area

 

 

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4 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

This is what I was afraid of earlier ......models missed that and it messed up what they were showing for later

THUS FAR, CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED MIGHTILY TO SUSTAIN ITSELF IN A  
WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT WITH POTENTIAL LINGERING SUBSIDENCE FROM  
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON'S COMPLEX.

 

new development over MLI area

 

 

Been a tough day.  The weakly forced setups are more prone to getting derailed, generally speaking.  

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Today was a rather challenging forecast, at least for me. What made it difficult was that the warm front had similar parameters from Kankakee all the way towards the East Central Iowa triple point. I had originally targeted Rock Island as models had honed in on initiation along the MS river this morning, and had generally held on to that idea through the early afternoon, so off I went to the Quad Cities, after stumbling around there for a few hours, and winding up in some shadier areas of Rock Island, I found a safe spot to check obs. It became evident that the Quad Cities was no longer the place to be and that the triple point in East Central Iowa was looking increasingly favored over IL, particularly noting the extreme levels of 0-3km CAPE(200-250 J/kg), rich mid 70s dewpoints and the fact that it had been sunny in Iowa the whole day, whereas IL had a late morning MCS and midday supercell. Not to mention that a fairly robust patch of cumulus was evident on visible satellite out in Iowa. After seeing that Iowa was clearly becoming the favored target area, I turned back the way I came, minus one tank of gas lol. 

Eventually posted up in Williamsburg and watched several towers to the south struggle. After about an hour and a half of watching towers go up and back down on themselves, I became increasingly concerned with the possibility of a cap bust, as subsidence was really putting a hamper on these updrafts, and seemingly winning for the time being.

9ab258d084acfdc3c2ce5103482b910e.png

 

A lone storm finally became established at about 5:45pm and slowly began to acquire supercell characteristics. Core punched through perhaps the lamest core ever(heavy rain and pea size hail -- zzzzzz) but was greeted with a nice, broadly rotating wall cloud, but updraft base was still pretty anemic otherwise. This storm would fight for its life during its entire existence. 

6922ec124d2aa92b9f84f55611360e1f.png


This wall cloud would persist and evolve with several RFD pushes failing to get the job done. I continued to follow the storm east, and the low-level rotation was getting more and more defined with each successive push of the RFD, but still had a long ways to go. As this supercell approached the warm front, it rapidly got its act together and picked up a tornado warning. Not 10 minutes later, a barrel-shaped tornado dropped below the world's most anemic base, which allowed for some spectacular lighting, to be fair. I'm almost certain that the extra vorticity on the warm front and 225 J/kg of 0-3km CAPE are reasons this storm was able to produce such a formidable tornado despite the storm struggling to maintain a consistently strong updraft.

77372d11fb6ac13d7562103bbbc8670e.png

 

37ad8040e3d33e055ba8f439673b2fb5.png

 

(Music is because I totally botched the real audio -- with radio, some tornado tourettes and talking to other chasers, so I just canned and replaced it with some music.)

After this tornado occluded over Iowa City, the storm slowly started to succumb to the subsidence as it never regained anything really resembling a healthy updraft base after this tornado. I followed it towards West Branch before letting it go and heading back to Cedar Rapids. This storm went up, produced a significant tornado and died in under 2 hours, that is the part that surprises me. This wasn't a dominant, robust supercell, this was a supercell that did nothing but fight to stay alive as long as it could, which happened to be just long enough that it was able to produce the most impressive single tornado that I've seen so far. What a fantastic way to start off my 2019 chase season!

b645dfb608261f4d6c665822f7db4923.png

 

 

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6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Been a tough day.  The weakly forced setups are more prone to getting derailed, generally speaking.  

what total disaster ..... was there some kind of force field over N IL or something.....

well its 3am...woke up And checked radar...thinking a MCS would be near by,,,but it's clear

SPC enhanced risk didn't pan out ....that feature in Northern MO went poof

hardy a drop of rain fell in LOT area....with a flash flood watch all day and night which was just cancelled..this of course caused the hydrograph forecast on the IL river to be to high..(see Morris) I have family members that get isolated when the river hits 25.5 here which was the crest forecast  yesterday and they just recently moved back...so I am keeping them updated trying to stay ahead of the forecast

it is a messed up system....WPC issues the 24 and 48hr precipitation forecast around 2am and  2pm each day....the new river forecast is not issued until around 10am and 10pm going off of precipitation ending at 12z/0z AND the WPC forecast issued 7 hours earlier of course by that time meso features can  change or it is obvious that precipitation forecast won't pan out

yesterday at 12z 1.5 to 2 inches was expected to fall in the basin upstream when the crest was 25.5..last evening at 10pm they lowered it to 24.7 based on only 1-1.25 inches in the forecast issued ....well that didn't pan out either so there was almost zero precipitation that fell in the drainage basin upstream

the new QPF forecast just out has 1/2 to 1 inch from I-80 south but only 1/4 to 1/2 inch over the NE part of the basin (around LOT area) and western burbs...so the new forecast issued at 10am will have almost ZERO precip that fell the past 12 hours and the above forecast precipitation...so it likely won't be even to 24.7 now when it issued in 6 hours (23.8 now)

but for example lets say that activity blows up ( not saying it will just an example) over Northern MO and moves across Northern IL at 9am...and it becomes obvious more then 1/2 inch will fall up there. lets say 1- 2 inches.....the river forecast issued at 10am would still be based off the busted low WPC forecast  issued at 2am

 

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ouch

ILX

LOOKING AT CAMS, THE TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS BEEN  
WRONG IN ABOUT EVERY DIRECTION THEY GO. THERE HAVE BEEN NUMEROUS  
TIMES WHEN THERE IS NOTHING ON CAMS, BUT YET THERE IS EITHER  
DEVELOPMENT OR ONGOING PRECIPITATION. SO AS FOR HOW MUCH I TRUST  
THESE MODEL INDICATIONS, I CANNOT SAY I RELY ON THEM AT THE  
CURRENT MOMENT.

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12 hours ago, hlcater said:

Today was a rather challenging forecast, at least for me. What made it difficult was that the warm front had similar parameters from Kankakee all the way towards the East Central Iowa triple point. I had originally targeted Rock Island as models had honed in on initiation along the MS river this morning, and had generally held on to that idea through the early afternoon, so off I went to the Quad Cities, after stumbling around there for a few hours, and winding up in some shadier areas of Rock Island, I found a safe spot to check obs. It became evident that the Quad Cities was no longer the place to be and that the triple point in East Central Iowa was looking increasingly favored over IL, particularly noting the extreme levels of 0-3km CAPE(200-250 J/kg), rich mid 70s dewpoints and the fact that it had been sunny in Iowa the whole day, whereas IL had a late morning MCS and midday supercell. Not to mention that a fairly robust patch of cumulus was evident on visible satellite out in Iowa. After seeing that Iowa was clearly becoming the favored target area, I turned back the way I came, minus one tank of gas lol. 

Eventually posted up in Williamsburg and watched several towers to the south struggle. After about an hour and a half of watching towers go up and back down on themselves, I became increasingly concerned with the possibility of a cap bust, as subsidence was really putting a hamper on these updrafts, and seemingly winning for the time being.

9ab258d084acfdc3c2ce5103482b910e.png

 

A lone storm finally became established at about 5:45pm and slowly began to acquire supercell characteristics. Core punched through perhaps the lamest core ever(heavy rain and pea size hail -- zzzzzz) but was greeted with a nice, broadly rotating wall cloud, but updraft base was still pretty anemic otherwise. This storm would fight for its life during its entire existence. 

6922ec124d2aa92b9f84f55611360e1f.png


This wall cloud would persist and evolve with several RFD pushes failing to get the job done. I continued to follow the storm east, and the low-level rotation was getting more and more defined with each successive push of the RFD, but still had a long ways to go. As this supercell approached the warm front, it rapidly got its act together and picked up a tornado warning. Not 10 minutes later, a barrel-shaped tornado dropped below the world's most anemic base, which allowed for some spectacular lighting, to be fair. I'm almost certain that the extra vorticity on the warm front and 225 J/kg of 0-3km CAPE are reasons this storm was able to produce such a formidable tornado despite the storm struggling to maintain a consistently strong updraft.

77372d11fb6ac13d7562103bbbc8670e.png

 

37ad8040e3d33e055ba8f439673b2fb5.png

 

(Music is because I totally botched the real audio -- with radio, some tornado tourettes and talking to other chasers, so I just canned and replaced it with some music.)

After this tornado occluded over Iowa City, the storm slowly started to succumb to the subsidence as it never regained anything really resembling a healthy updraft base after this tornado. I followed it towards West Branch before letting it go and heading back to Cedar Rapids. This storm went up, produced a significant tornado and died in under 2 hours, that is the part that surprises me. This wasn't a dominant, robust supercell, this was a supercell that did nothing but fight to stay alive as long as it could, which happened to be just long enough that it was able to produce the most impressive single tornado that I've seen so far. What a fantastic way to start off my 2019 chase season!

b645dfb608261f4d6c665822f7db4923.png

 

 

Very nice!  That was a very photogenic tor.  And lol @ the Amish chaser at the 9min mark in the vid.

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Surprised no one posted it. Good chance at high end severe storms Monday and Tuesday.

973520089_day4prob(2).gif.631a16dc967e934ad6b14f8226e833a3.gif

Quote

The main wave associated with persistent long-wave troughing over
   the West will finally begin to eject over the central Plains on
   D4/Tuesday.  This wave will result in a 70-knot mid-level jet
   overspreading western portions of a strongly buoyant airmass that
   should be mostly undisturbed from any prior convection.  An
   expansive area of convection should evolve along and ahead of a
   surface dryline located from western Oklahoma northward to
   southeastern Nebraska and along a warm front extending from a
   surface low in eastern Nebraska eastward to southern lower Michigan.
    Although mesoscale details are still unclear at this timeframe, the
   extent of convective coverage over the warm sector within a
   parameter space potentially supporting significant severe weather
   justifies introduction of a 30% area (equivalent to Enhanced Slight)
   in eastern Kansas, western Missouri, and northeastern Oklahoma
   within a broader area of 15% probabilities from the Oklahoma/Texas
   Red River northeastward to Iowa/Illinois.  The specific locations of
   heightened risk may change with subsequent outlooks.

nam_2019052518_078_39.39--94.82.png

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Early week does appear to have some potential. Just focusing on Monday for now, the warm frontal zone could get interesting.  Will probably be dealing with storms early in the day though which could muddle things.

We first got to get through tonight and Sunday.  Possible watch coming now for west central IL this Saturday evening.

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And there it is..

.....

 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 246
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   715 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Southeast Iowa
     West-central and northwest Illinois
     Northeast Missouri

   * Effective this Saturday night from 715 PM until Midnight CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
       inches in diameter possible
     Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...Splitting discrete cells will pose a threat for primarily
   large hail this evening as they develop east from north-central
   Missouri.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
   statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles west southwest
   of Burlington IA to 60 miles east southeast of Burlington IA. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

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These are the storms which will be giving the Indy 500 authorities fits for tomorrow's race as they hope they will be past the area by noon.   Lots of campers tonight on the grounds just west of the track who just might get hit by severe weather in the overnight hours.   I really hate that radar hole over northeast Missouri.  Virtually all the storms in that se IA/ne MO cluster are severe warned at present.

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30 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

These storms will probably morph into a big ole severe MCS and swing southeastward overnight.

The storms near the MO/IA border are classic let’s turn and/or develop ESE and miss Peoria to the SW .. I will get some thunder and moderate rain .. even if models say it will move ENE and move over me or north it will turn more right 80 percent of the time

I always get a chuckle out of the local tv Mets showing future radar and having them hitting Peoria head on

 

expect a couple t-storm warnings and many flash warnings to my SW

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6 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Very nice!  That was a very photogenic tor.  And lol @ the Amish chaser at the 9min mark in the vid.

Had a chuckle when the horse skidded, on the wet pavement trotting by the camera.  Fun video to watch.

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53 minutes ago, DAFF said:

Had a chuckle when the horse skidded, on the wet pavement trotting by the camera.  Fun video to watch.

I felt bad for the horse. You could see it had no problems with vehicles. But something going on with that guy in front of that other car really had the horse's attention as it drew close. Looks like the guy was fighting with a tripod. Was it a bang or clatter from it? Or was the guy on a Bluetooth phone and Reed Timmering and yelling at someone else. What ever something momentarily startled the horse and it sort of/ kind of lost it's gait for a nanosecond, but recovered well. Things like that can hurt a horse. 

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