Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Spring 2019 New England Banter and Disco


HoarfrostHubb
 Share

Recommended Posts

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Sounds like it's run out of James' basement.

There's Navier-Stokes based fluid mechanics and themodynamics... 

Then there's the real gigantic leap forward in the state of the art of prognostic Meteorological technology ... a model based, at long last, upon the   "James-Kevin"   equation -

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There's Navier-Stokes based fluid and themodynamics... 

Then there's the real gigantic leap forward in the state of the art of prognostic Meteorological technology ... a model based, at long last, upon the   "James-Kevin"   equation -

Not ironic that they abbreviate it with "j/k"

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

In fairness the GFS didn't crap itself, but the way website receive the GFS did. Probably just a naming convection issue.

I have to back Louis up on this one.

I mean it;s solution for tomorrow. That looks a little too light on QPF. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well we shall see. Maybe all of SNE aside from the Cape get the 7/10 split, but having trouble seeing QPF that low over such a wide area. SPC HREF makes sense to me.

I would be shocked if it ended up that low. Just doesn't seem right given the setup. Pretty strong isentropic lift and PWATS > 1.50'' 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Wait how is this going to be reflected in bufkit? PSU site only has "GFS"...never even had GFS FV3. 12z usually out by now but its not

Generally speaking, once websites get their kinks worked out, the "GFS" will be the FV3 core. Any "para" version will be the old core.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Generally speaking, once websites get their kinks worked out, the "GFS" will be the FV3 core. Any "para" version will be the old core.

I'm glad they're keeping the old one around for a bit longer. I just hope to God this FV3 is seriously good to go. I'm afraid it's going to show a cat 4 hitting SNE and everyone is going to go off the hinges and there will be so much hype and there was never a shot at it happening...even though the euro would show a miss to the weenies the FV3 is like the new hot person in town. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm glad they're keeping the old one around for a bit longer. I just hope to God this FV3 is seriously good to go. I'm afraid it's going to show a cat 4 hitting SNE and everyone is going to go off the hinges and there will be so much hype and there was never a shot at it happening...even though the euro would show a miss to the weenies the FV3 is like the new hot person in town. 

Overall it's a marginal improvement over the GFS, and we shouldn't expect to see drastic changes from the old core. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm glad they're keeping the old one around for a bit longer. I just hope to God this FV3 is seriously good to go. I'm afraid it's going to show a cat 4 hitting SNE and everyone is going to go off the hinges and there will be so much hype and there was never a shot at it happening...even though the euro would show a miss to the weenies the FV3 is like the new hot person in town. 

:weenie:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, OceanStWx said:

Overall it's a marginal improvement over the GFS, and we shouldn't expect to see drastic changes from the old core. 

I've been thinking about this too...is it possible that increasing resolution size and layers could actually reduce the accuracy of models (unless that model is specifically designed for mesoscale?) I feel like if the resolution becomes too granular it may start picking up on certain "things" which could totally screw up the projection? Unless of course I guess this was adjusted for in the incredibly complex codes...but overall there have been these significant changes to the GFS with regards to resolution with not much improvement (or what would be thought) over the last several years. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I've been thinking about this too...is it possible that increasing resolution size and layers could actually reduce the accuracy of models (unless that model is specifically designed for mesoscale?) I feel like if the resolution becomes too granular it may start picking up on certain "things" which could totally screw up the projection? Unless of course I guess this was adjusted for in the incredibly complex codes...but overall there have been these significant changes to the GFS with regards to resolution with not much improvement (or what would be thought) over the last several years. 

Well the resolution didn't change this time around.

But overall that's why they run these things in parallel, so they can test that they aren't harming any previous good a model did. This is a "do no harm" upgrade, so any degradation is basically noise. There will be plenty of hot takes about how bad the model is when it has its first big bust, but those will be mostly overblown beyond the normal the GFS just isn't as good a global model as the Euro and Ukie. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, OceanStWx said:

Well the resolution didn't change this time around.

But overall that's why they run these things in parallel, so they can test that they aren't harming any previous good a model did. This is a "do no harm" upgrade, so any degradation is basically noise. There will be plenty of hot takes about how bad the model is when it has its first big bust, but those will be mostly overblown beyond the normal the GFS just isn't as good a global model as the Euro and Ukie. 

ahhh I thought the resolution and amount of layers broken into was increased. 

All in all though this has been in testing for quite some time and I'm sure it would not become operational if there were significant issues. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, OceanStWx said:

Well the resolution didn't change this time around.

But overall that's why they run these things in parallel, so they can test that they aren't harming any previous good a model did. This is a "do no harm" upgrade, so any degradation is basically noise. There will be plenty of hot takes about how bad the model is when it has its first big bust, but those will be mostly overblown beyond the normal the GFS just isn't as good a global model as the Euro and Ukie. 

Don't the new equations enhance the resolution to a certain degree though despite it still having a resolution of 13km in the horiztonal and 64 in vertical?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, weatherwiz said:

ahhh I thought the resolution and amount of layers broken into was increased. 

All in all though this has been in testing for quite some time and I'm sure it would not become operational if there were significant issues. 

I read that in several cases it outperformed the Euro for tropical systems in regards to model forecast error so I'm expecting good things with it. Here is one article I read that highlights a lot of new features: https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/scn19-40gfs_v15_1.pdf

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, It's Always Sunny said:

Don't the new equations enhance the resolution to a certain degree though despite it still having a resolution of 13km in the horiztonal and 64 in vertical?

Certain parameters may improve (like the satellite microphysics I mentioned) but like you say the grid resolution won't. This upgrade will make it easier to change resolution down the road though, which is one of the major reasons for the upgrade.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...