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Spring 2019 New England Banter and Disco


HoarfrostHubb
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49 minutes ago, dendrite said:

That can't be too rare for them can it? It's basically an elevated Valdez. Isn't that near Met Tech's old stomping grounds?

Probably not rare at all.  Big QPF is easy there, just need temps and at 2-3kft not that hard to do probably.  Just looked like a sweet storm.  

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Completely random but I just came across this while searching VT State Police briefs for a DUI arrest record of someone this past winter... 

But holy crap this stuff happens in today's world.  Disabled vehicle at 12:30pm was all it took to kill this woman from hypothermia in VT... like man it would suck to find out that's all it took to kill your loved one.  Car troubles on a sunny cold day.

"Dec. 19 at 12:30 p.m., a woman died of hypothermia on Herring Brook Road in Moretown. Police said Janet Franz, 70, of East Montpelier began walking on the road after her vehicle became disabled, but died before she could reach help. Police do not consider her death suspicious."

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Completely random but I just came across this while searching VT State Police briefs for a DUI arrest record of someone this past winter... 

But holy crap this stuff happens in today's world.  Disabled vehicle at 12:30pm was all it took to kill this woman from hypothermia in VT... like man it would suck to find out that's all it took to kill your loved one.  Car troubles on a sunny cold day.

"Dec. 19 at 12:30 p.m., a woman died of hypothermia on Herring Brook Road in Moretown. Police said Janet Franz, 70, of East Montpelier began walking on the road after her vehicle became disabled, but died before she could reach help. Police do not consider her death suspicious."

Must have been old 

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2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Wow...the average high at PANC drops 14°F between September and October

Typical as one moves north, though respectable for low elevation near salt water.  Farmington co-op is 13° colder in Dec than Nov, and 36° colder than Sept.  High plains temp descent is much steeper still, and Siberia probably leads the northern hemisphere in that department.

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5 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Typical as one moves north, though respectable for low elevation near salt water.  Farmington co-op is 13° colder in Dec than Nov, and 36° colder than Sept.  High plains temp descent is much steeper still, and Siberia probably leads the northern hemisphere in that department.

I would love to see some stations in Siberia lol

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I heard there was a bright meteor that was seen over a wide area of the East Coast the other night.  I guess it was in the Delmarva area.  Just went back to my webcam footage and realized it captured it from all the way up here.

Video from 1057pm April 16th   https://video.nest.com/clip/7e6620ffb3894b798a22e0a693dc5fc0.mp4

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On 4/18/2019 at 9:31 AM, dendrite said:

That can't be too rare for them can it? It's basically an elevated Valdez. Isn't that near Met Tech's old stomping grounds?

Ha...right - 

may not be what you were getting at but it reminds me of the whole 'stick a hapless WC reporter out on the end of a pier in a hurricane like we're supposed to be surprised by the wind' phenomenon - 

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So it's in the media today, Michael's hurricane intensity officially being set at category 5 per reanalysis ( I assume to be reanalysis ) ... 

Here's the thing ...that headline gave me pause for two reasons:  Another category five hurricane in the Atlantic basin so soon since the blitzkrieg of a couple years ago ??  But also, what the who the f is Michael?

Oh yeah... that one - 

Man, we've been sooo saturated by these biblical tempests in the last ...well, since Katrina for all intents and purposes, that it's all sort of blending into one contiguous event.  

A touch of sarcasm to that statement, but... fact of the matter is, you hear the same tape played often enough you sort of automatically start committing less of it to memory.  It doesn't have 'as much' shock and awe, it's indelible mark in your memory stops happening.   I mean I completely forget Micheal happened...  

I think ... or suspect rather, that Micheal making landfall where he did ... sparing very dense population circuitry ... helps media extinguish the manic coverage.  Not sure... maybe the media industry is looking at the numbers and seeing a fall off in interest due to the same saturation fatigue ...and are letting things go sooner, too -  

Either way, I almost feel like we should start counting on a strong catty 4 if not 5'er as a perfunctory seasonal result - just a matter of whether it's actually impacting land... much more, land populated by something other than frigates and wind stripped palms

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

So it's in the media today, Michael's hurricane intensity officially being set at category 5 per reanalysis ( I assume to be reanalysis ) ... 

Here's the thing ...that headline gave me pause for two reasons:  Another category five hurricane in the Atlantic basin so soon since the blitzkrieg of a couple years ago ??  But also, what the who the f is Michael?

Oh yeah... that one - 

Man, we've been sooo saturated by these biblical tempests in the last ...well, since Katrina for all intents and purposes, that it's all sort of blending into one contiguous event.  

A touch of sarcasm to that statement, but... fact of the matter is, you here the same tape played often enough you sort of automatically start committing less of it to memory.  It doesn't have 'as much' shock and awe, it's indelible mark in your memory stops happening.   I mean I completely forget Micheal happened...  

I think ... or suspect rather, that Micheal making landfall where he did ... sparing very dense population circuitry ... helps media extinguish the manic coverage.  Not sure... maybe the media industry is looking at the numbers and seeing a fall off in interest due to the same saturation fatigue ...and are letting things go sooner, too -  

Either way, I almost feel like we should start counting on a strong catty 4 if not 5'er as a perfunctory seasonal result - just a matter of whether it's actually impacting land... much more, land populated by something other than frigates and wind stripped palms

If Michael had come ashore in the heart of Miami/Ft Lauderdale (Andrew just barely missed the big population centers)  we would still be talking about it.  Although the little town of Mexico Beach got wiped off the map this could have been so much worse.

It is amazing the amount of strong hurricanes we have had recently.

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44 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

If Michael had come ashore in the heart of Miami/Ft Lauderdale (Andrew just barely missed the big population centers)  we would still be talking about it.  Although the little town of Mexico Beach got wiped off the map this could have been so much worse.

It is amazing the amount of strong hurricanes we have had recently.

Yeah... yes it is. 

Regardless of cultural implications relative to 'where' these big clock events have come on shore, the 'when' of them has been really alarming.  

You know ...I read 10 or 15 years go, papers ...peer reviewed ones, espousing the uptick in mean severity of ISE because of GW ... but, back then, I had counter ( and still do ) theoretical thinking.  The antipathy was/is centered around "gradients"   

Gradient drives ...well, all of reality actually.  The difference between here ...and over there... IF it were all the same at all quantum points ubiquitously down to the Plank-length of the space time continuum ..everywhere, nothing would move.  There would be no positive vs negative charge ... The would be no curved space, thus ...no gravity... thus, no aggregating mass... no starts, planets ... molecules ...just a soup of inert motionlessness that is for all effective reasons, none existent because it has not effective meaning...

That baser principle is what reality is foundation'ed upon ( bare with me... ).  You have to think about the weather that way? 

Warm vs cool.  Hot vs cold.  Theta-e ( think dewpoint) vs regions with non or surplus compared ... These are all gradients.  The are all what gives rise to the actual dynamic action of wind... and clouds and rain and storms ...and the null areas, we call sunny days.

Gradient drives everything...  

Just because we warm the atmosphere due to global warm... that does not concomitantly connote a very intense frequency of storms.  You still have to have a heat sink... ( gradient ) capable of ingesting the exhaust from the heat source ( the warming ocean ).  

I just never read any passages in those early papers that really demonstrated this simple sort of thermodynamic arithmetic was being considered enough. If the the oceans warm... yes, that means additional thermal energy is plausible... but, that energy may not necessarily be accessible ...if say...the couple atmosphere is already holding more moisture than usual from having already adjusted.  Also, the tropical sounding is a conditional instability type ..The typical sounding has a dry warm region at mid levels...with warm saturable parcel lifted into it, mixing causes diabatic release which then gives parcel buoyancy ...more so than the negative region of the sounding. It's why you tend to see narrow tall turrets...  image.png.4205900a3623d90138ee7bc43346c5aa.png

 If that region warms due to balanced latent heat increases, that lowers the instability.  In other words, if GW is uniform at multiple levels, ...it's unclear to me how that really effects TS ...  And all this frequency could just be normal... 

However, having said all that... it might be that the warming is outpacing the total atmospheric balance, so ... yeah.. I wonder if there's a temporal window here where we denude islands and punish greedy coastal planners... 

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

But we’ve had it so quiet up until a couple of years ago. I wouldn’t knee jerk over a cat 5 in the Atlantic, we went through a long drought without getting whoppers. Just like our long drought until recently with landfall storms. 

We still haven't had a landfalling one in New England since 1991.  Compare that to a 1938-1960 period.  If we get a repeat of that period, I can't imagine the reaction.

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4 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

We still haven't had a landfalling one in New England since 1991.  Compare that to a 1938-1960 period.  If we get a repeat of that period, I can't imagine the reaction.

I agree. I’m just trying to put things into perspective. Michael also did not have very anomalous waters prior to landfall either. It goes to show you how important atmospheric conditions must be vs water temps.

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