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HillsdaleMIWeather

Spring/Summer 2019 Complaint/Banter Thread

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10 hours ago, Hoosier said:

What is going on in White county Indiana

MonthTDeptMRCC.png.7815db472bb1c78fd96dd20583289380.png

Did a flock of sandhill cranes make a bunch of nests in a ASOS sensor suite there?

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I'm starting to think this garbage, relentless, cold and wet pattern is related to the solar minimum. We're entering a deep solar minimum. Going to have to wait a few years at very least for this pattern to break. Might not see a warm year again until maybe the mid 2020s.

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4 hours ago, NegativeEPO said:

I'm starting to think this garbage, relentless, cold and wet pattern is related to the solar minimum. We're entering a deep solar minimum. Going to have to wait a few years at very least for this pattern to break. Might not see a warm year again until maybe the mid 2020s.

:violin:

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Loving the next 2 weeks on the GFS. Looks like a steady supply of below normal temps. 

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Just gotta laugh how a -NAO was so hard to come by last winter, but has been so prevalent in the past couple months.  I think the correlation with temps does become less as you get into summer, meaning that a -NAO is not as likely to result in below average temps (for example, 2012 was a -NAO summer).  This is where looking at actual maps/patterns helps.

nao.sprd2.thumb.gif.be019d0da13d79de02cd8d7667f01845.gif

 

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Can’t wait for OK/TX to have some more setups while the Midwest continues to sleep through peak season. 

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On 6/9/2019 at 2:21 PM, Hoosier said:

Just gotta laugh how a -NAO was so hard to come by last winter, but has been so prevalent in the past couple months.  I think the correlation with temps does become less as you get into summer, meaning that a -NAO is not as likely to result in below average temps (for example, 2012 was a -NAO summer).  This is where looking at actual maps/patterns helps.

nao.sprd2.thumb.gif.be019d0da13d79de02cd8d7667f01845.gif

 

A 2012 summer can start at anytime now.

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Generally a -nao has a tendency to trigger strong ridging in the summer as 2012 -nao showed and the historic blocking during that June. But this year is a slow start. 1980 has popped up a bit in the analogs. Very cold stretch in the middle part of the June, the first real heat surge didn't happen until the last week of june and didn't get more consistent until after the 4th(with a major heat wave that year, 1980). We shall see then if the -nao does transition into some heat in a couple of weeks eh???????

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Was looking up some 100 degree stats for Chicago.  It has been about 7 years since ORD hit 100.  If 2019 fails to produce a 100 degree day, it would be the longest stretch without one since the 1960s (1961-1970 had none).

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On 6/10/2019 at 11:54 AM, hlcater said:

Can’t wait for OK/TX to have some more setups while the Midwest continues to sleep through peak season. 

Yeah.  While the weather has been pleasant and excellent for the garden, it's tough to watch our peak storm month waste away.

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8 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Happy GFS "Upgrade" Day!

I seem to remember that the GFS has had some problems in the summertime with dew points too high (75-80 degrees) in generally moist time periods in the Midwest. I wonder if this upgrade may improve that somehow.

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Interesting that ORD has only had 4 days with high temps of 82+ so far in 2019, with zero days of 84+. Not sure what the average # of 82+ days is for ORD by June 13th in any given year, but it has to be significantly higher that what we've seen in 2019.  Normal high this time of year is 80, but it ramps up quickly to 85 by the end of June.

Strangely enough - despite all of the whining about how chilly it has been this Spring, the overall mean temp for the period April 1st - June 13th at ORD has been essentially normal.  Just not a lot of excessively cool or warm days.

To me, this apparent contrast illustrates that it's still fairly early in the warm season for NE IL, given the lake influence.  I generally consider "consistent summer" at ORD to be June 10th - Sep 10th, as opposed to May 15th - Sep 10th in other areas of IL away from the lake. 

No complaints from me; even with the excessive rainfall, temps have been fairly pleasant in May/June so far.

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1 hour ago, beavis1729 said:

Interesting that ORD has only had 4 days with high temps of 82+ so far in 2019, with zero days of 84+. Not sure what the average # of 82+ days is for ORD by June 13th in any given year, but it has to be significantly higher that what we've seen in 2019.  Normal high this time of year is 80, but it ramps up quickly to 85 by the end of June.

Strangely enough - despite all of the whining about how chilly it has been this Spring, the overall mean temp for the period April 1st - June 13th at ORD has been essentially normal.  Just not a lot of excessively cool or warm days.

To me, this apparent contrast illustrates that it's still fairly early in the warm season for NE IL, given the lake influence.  I generally consider "consistent summer" at ORD to be June 10th - Sep 10th, as opposed to May 15th - Sep 10th in other areas of IL away from the lake. 

No complaints from me; even with the excessive rainfall, temps have been fairly pleasant in May/June so far.

The average number of 82+ days by now is about 10 days.  Rough and dirty estimate... could be off by a day or so.  In any case, definitely running behind the average for those days.

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17 hours ago, Chinook said:

I seem to remember that the GFS has had some problems in the summertime with dew points too high (75-80 degrees) in generally moist time periods in the Midwest. I wonder if this upgrade may improve that somehow.

This new GFS is terrible. Has a very severe cold bias that they STILL haven’t fixed yet for some reason.

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7 hours ago, snowcaine said:

Looks like Toronto is on track to finish the first 6 months of 2019 without ever hitting 80 degrees 

So let's say that happens.  How rare would it be?

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20 hours ago, Hoosier said:

So let's say that happens.  How rare would it be?

A similar situation... about 3 times in the last 35 years

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Been a low haze/fog with this chill for a couple days now. Yesterday evening was very noticeable

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4 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Welcome to July...

342

Well, good news is that can't trend much worse.

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Well, good news is that can't trend much worse.

Depends on your interpretation of worse lol.  I'll take it :D

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While the relatively cool weather continues here, the southern plains are baking.

Laredo TX hit 109 yesterday, with a peak hourly heat index of 116 (temp 107, dew 69).  And, today will set a daily record high min of 83 (old record 82 in 2011).

 

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16 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Welcome to July...

342

Cromartie will not be happy to see this.

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