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March 22-23 Storm Thread: Cabins and Pony-Os?


powderfreak
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14 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Population of NNE is only around 5-10 people.  1/2 are out cutting firewood, a couple are out on the trails.  That leaves only a couple to post in here.

Wrong time of year to cut the firewood.  This time of year we clean up the dog poo which is unveiled by the melting of the snow and fight over who gets to keep the winter's roadkill as they thaw out.

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The last couple runs of the high res NAM are actually giving me a little freezing rain here tomorrow night and early Friday morning, which is interesting as I expected this would be just a snow vs. rain scenario.

Warm nose is centered around 875 mb and is very thin. If we do dry slot a bit, then I could see it, but otherwise I think this is just a paste job here. Euro keeps me all snow and the dry slot mostly to my east. 

High res NAM destroys me with upslope Friday into Saturday. The Euro still had some light blue pixels over me at 18z Saturday! This could challenge the big storm I had 11/26-28 where I was around 2'. That event was an elevation wet snow on the front end and then upslope on the backside. The valleys had pretty much nothing.

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ALY has watches up in SVT.  I know BTV does as well. 

Think 1500'+ looking pretty good  to verify the 7"+ to meet watch criteria. Looking good at that heavily wooded plot at 2230' in SVT.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
348 PM EDT Wed Mar 20 2019
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy, wet snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 7
  inches or more possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph
  Friday night.

* WHERE...In Vermont, Bennington and Western Windham Counties. In
  New York, Herkimer and Hamilton Counties.

* WHEN...Friday and Friday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning and
  evening commutes.

 

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3 minutes ago, wxmanmitch said:

The last couple runs of the high res NAM are actually giving me a little freezing rain here tomorrow night and early Friday morning, which is interesting as I expected this would be just a snow vs. rain scenario.

Warm nose is centered around 875 mb and is very thin. If we do dry slot a bit, then I could see it, but otherwise I think this is just a paste job here. Euro keeps me all snow and the dry slot mostly to my east. 

High res NAM destroys me with upslope Friday into Saturday. The Euro still had some light blue pixels over me at 18z Saturday! This could challenge the big storm I had 11/26-28 where I was around 2'. That event was an elevation wet snow on the front end and then upslope on the backside. The valleys had pretty much nothing.

I couldn't recall that event as it seems like ages ago, but looked at the snow table and it was 12.5" in the elevated valley here. 

Obviously your in a good spot for a shot at 12"+. You do well in the upslope, but this may be a classic Woodford upslope jack in SVT

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11 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

ALY has watches up in SVT.  I know BTV does as well. 

Think 1500'+ looking pretty good  to verify the 7"+ to meet watch criteria. Looking good at that heavily wooded plot at 2230' in SVT.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
348 PM EDT Wed Mar 20 2019
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy, wet snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 7
  inches or more possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph
  Friday night.

* WHERE...In Vermont, Bennington and Western Windham Counties. In
  New York, Herkimer and Hamilton Counties.

* WHEN...Friday and Friday night.
* WHO...Mitch.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning and
  evening commutes.

 

:o

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Keep me posted at the watch tower on Kearsage.

#notboring

It was funny watching this go from people being excited "even if it turns out to be a rainstorm" when there was no threat except a chance for phasing...but then once it phased and became a mountain snow event it became useless.  I don't blame anyone unless they were kidding on enjoying a chilly rainstorm.  

There were definitely a few pages in the March thread about people just wanting something to happen rather than cold and boring.  Now I feel that crowd wants to go back to cold and boring lol.

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Just now, powderfreak said:

#notboring

It was funny watching this go from people being excited "even if it turns out to be a rainstorm" when there was no threat except a chance for phasing...but then once it phased and became a mountain snow event its not worth watching.  

There were definitely a few pages in the March thread about people just wanting something to happen rather than cold and boring.  Now I feel that crowd wants to go back to cold and boring lol.

Grab 1-3” SNE hills. There’s a few of us that we will be posting Fri night 

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43 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Looks like a dackjack

I think that could be the big winners... but if people think NNE is sparsely populated, the Adirondacks can take that to another level.

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Grab 1-3” SNE hills. There’s a few of us that we will be posting Fri night 

Yeah definitely a shot at a couple inches to shovel there at 1000ft on Saturday morning.

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I think that could be the big winners... but if people think NNE is sparsely populated, the Adirondacks can take that to another level.

Yeah definitely a shot at a couple inches to shovel there at 1000ft on Saturday morning.

What do they average at 3k up there (dacks) in your opinion comparing to n greens 

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10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

#notboring

It was funny watching this go from people being excited "even if it turns out to be a rainstorm" when there was no threat except a chance for phasing...but then once it phased and became a mountain snow event it became useless.  I don't blame anyone unless they were kidding on enjoying a chilly rainstorm.  

There were definitely a few pages in the March thread about people just wanting something to happen rather than cold and boring.  Now I feel that crowd wants to go back to cold and boring lol.

If it had the chance of becoming a tempest then yeah. A half inch of rain followed by flakes in the air isn’t exactly inspiring excitement. 

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5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

What do they average at 3k up there (dacks) in your opinion comparing to n greens 

Not nearly as much as the N Greens but sneaky snowy.  They don't get fringed as much by coastals like the Greens, and the Adirondacks are a big clump of mountains so different flows hammer different sections.  Like SWFE can hammer the SE side with enhanced snow and southerly flow brings good snows to the southern Dacks north of the Mohawk Valley.  The northern Dacks get more lake effect and upslope though.  

The main difference is the Green Mtn Spine does well from most wind directions as a Spine...it's not a cluster like the Dacks and Whites where different zones of those mountains are favored by different flows.  

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22 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

#notboring

It was funny watching this go from people being excited "even if it turns out to be a rainstorm" when there was no threat except a chance for phasing...but then once it phased and became a mountain snow event it became useless.  I don't blame anyone unless they were kidding on enjoying a chilly rainstorm.  

There were definitely a few pages in the March thread about people just wanting something to happen rather than cold and boring.  Now I feel that crowd wants to go back to cold and boring lol.

I was one of those people but I was excited for more of a wind event for this storm right on coast if it wasn't going to be a snowmaker down here.

Now it just looks like a strong storm that will be getting stronger as it passes by SNE without much impact from winds.

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20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If it had the chance of becoming a tempest then yeah. A half inch of rain followed by flakes in the air isn’t exactly inspiring excitement. 

I'm really joking, I wouldn't give a shit in your spot too.  I Just like the ribbing as I think it was Fella who was saying he enjoys a chilly rainy day before May 1st.  But it sounds like you guys are talking about like an autumn Noreaster with windy sheets of rain on a huge curling precip shield.

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