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powderfreak

March 22-23 Storm Thread: Cabins and Pony-Os?

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Sucks the Euro is coming in too late for the forecasts again. 

The first 48 hours are usually in by 2:10 am/pm. I’ll usually wait for it if something is going on. 

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4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

We did at the office. The question now I think is whether it's a permanent flip or if we'll change back to snow as the mid levels cool with the passing of the upper trof. 

what's your temp? Still sn on the hill at home. temp steady, 30.9f

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Oh man.  

Latest 12z HRRR only through 2am tonight and the mountains crushed with another 5-8 hours after this to go.

Weenieville Massif in Tolland with a jackpot as well.  Never have seen that so consistently modeled for one random county. 

IMG_2631.thumb.PNG.0678936866f3094a01bda3fea5d58f91.PNG

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35 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

2019-03-22_8-36-08_zpssqtsrnys.png

I mean this was only 24 hours ago from the NAM. Mid level winds are most definitely south of east.

2019-03-22_8-34-47_zpsw3pipahl.png

And here's the 1 hour lead time from this morning's NAM. No warm nose and mid level winds most definitely almost due east. Our actual sounding had about +0.5C at it's warmest.

Great! 

now all you need is for this to actually become a storm ... not some pallid bullshit imitation of one whirling about in tepid gradients -

I just I dunno this strikes me as a typical spring jaggov from the models where ominous appeal ends up all at 500 mb because seasonal normalization of the lower troposphere played a bigger role than [probably] anyone considered it would. 

That ... and I also believe we have some transitive wave interference from that diving impulse in the Lakes.. I suppose it can and probably will get better later on ... 

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Just now, powderfreak said:

Oh man.  

Latest 12z HRRR only through 2am tonight and the mountains crushed with another 5-8 hours after this to go.

Weenieville Massif in Tolland with a jackpot as well.  Never have seen that so consistently modeled for one random county. 

IMG_2631.thumb.PNG.0678936866f3094a01bda3fea5d58f91.PNG

That’s not even upslope as lower spots in the valley are juiced on that. Almost like a standing wave thing. Wonder if that is correct. 

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7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Just you replying to yourself all day long.

Ha!  Quick question... why was there no watch or anything at all for Coos County even as of yesterday afternoon?  Lack of caring about up there?  With the upslope alone and their High mean elevation...we talked about it days ago you could just hoist for the upslope alone.  

  • Haha 1

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Oh man.  

Latest 12z HRRR only through 2am tonight and the mountains crushed with another 5-8 hours after this to go.

Weenieville Massif in Tolland with a jackpot as well.  Never have seen that so consistently modeled for one random county. 

IMG_2631.thumb.PNG.0678936866f3094a01bda3fea5d58f91.PNG

enjoy your 30" of paste

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

6Z Euro 

download (1).png

Yeah i have a mix of sleet and fzra here now. I think that 10 spot over my house is gonna be a stretch. :-p

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s not even upslope as lower spots in the valley are juiced on that. Almost like a standing wave thing. Wonder if that is correct. 

True I mean that's a lot of QPF relative to the rest of SNE.  Does look like WNW standing wave from Berkshires down to the valley and then wave lifts up again in that area.  

Thatll be fascinating.

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7 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

what's your temp? Still sn on the hill at home. temp steady, 30.9f

We're 31.6, but I think our thermometer runs a little cool.

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3 minutes ago, Arnold214 said:

Yeah i have a mix of sleet and fzra here now. I think that 10 spot over my house is gonna be a stretch. :-p

Dumbfounded?

Screenshot_20190322-094401_RadarScope.jpg

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha!  Quick question... why was there no watch or anything at all for Coos County even as of yesterday afternoon?  Lack of caring about up there?  With the upslope alone and their High mean elevation...we talked about it days ago you could just hoist for the upslope alone.  

At the time we didn't think they were going to get much out of this morning's stuff (that's not working out), and then could just hoist an advisory for the upslope after. We didn't really have the area of 6+ amounts to bump anything but maybe northern Coos to a warning.

It was definitely a low confidence forecast, but as Ekster has been saying I probably should've just hedged colder than models based on the pattern recognition. 

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

True I mean that's a lot of QPF relative to the rest of SNE.  Does look like WNW standing wave from Berkshires down to the valley and then wave lifts up again in that area.  

Thatll be fascinating.

That may be part of that weird band from RI to srn parts of central MA occurring right now. 

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

At the time we didn't think they were going to get much out of this morning's stuff (that's not working out), and then could just hoist an advisory for the upslope after. We didn't really have the area of 6+ amounts to bump anything but maybe northern Coos to a warning.

It was definitely a low confidence forecast, but as Ekster has been saying I probably should've just hedged colder than models based on the pattern recognition. 

That’s a tough forecast for you guys. Even now where it could be cold for snow, the precip shield is kind of fractured. It’s a weird storm indeed. 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m in Farmington, but I have to wonder if it’s snowing or at least mixing at home. That radar is juiced . 

CC looks like a mix 

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That may be part of that weird band from RI to srn parts of central MA occurring right now. 

That band has rotated over me head, started out se to nw now becoming east to west as the mids pass under .98

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

CC looks like a mix 

That radar reminds me of that firehose storm. Easterly inflow just jamming into the hills  and westerly component just wringing it out 

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