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powderfreak

March 22-23 Storm Thread: Cabins and Pony-Os?

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Every run of short term guidance (RAP/HRRR/etc) keeps moving the WCB/CCB stuff SE tomorrow morning...takes longer to dryslot us.

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1 minute ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

3hour pressure change maps have the center south of NJ currently. Is this further south than what was modeled?

 

image.gif

Models changed today to show that which was a red flag to me . Slower deeper and further east when it got to us 

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16 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Just a sick fire hose coming in too. Going to puke rain tonight. 

Will have to watch some areas for a dynamic flip tomorrow morning. 

Such a volatile situation; hard to quantify and plan for what a flip would look like, if it happened at all and how it might impact conditions across northern CT; could run the gamut of impacts from zero issues to surprise slushy travel;  if dynamic flip occurs across northern CT, what would you estimate the best timing??? thinking somewhere in 4:30 - 7:30 am period?  

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2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Just saw the NAM. I just don't understand how Gray is not quickly putting up advisories/warnings.This could cause all kinds of problems up here as this trend continues and everyone thinks a rainstorm us coming with perhaps a bit of mangled flakage.

Yeah, scratching my head as well. My forecast total snowfall is less than an inch tonight, less than 1/2" tomorrow night and all rain otherwise. 

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Fun watching the posts roll in today....everyone making fun of the post count in this thread earlier and "who cares" stuff.  

Now they rollin in by the minute.

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On 3/20/2019 at 12:13 PM, OceanStWx said:

Man the 00z ensemble sensitivity still showed a coherent pattern showing up only around 24-36 hours lead time (tied to the first phase of the Ohio Valley shortwaves). 

Still time for adjustments.

This was a flag to me.

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Look at the upper level and midlevel tracks on the NAM....if this tightens up jus a tad more over the next 6 hours, then there could be a pretty big surprise for ORH county back to east slopes of the Berks (we know west slopes are already expecting big upslope) and Monads....maybe even down into interior N CT....I think it prob doesn't quite have enough time to do it, but the trend is pretty relentless right now for this close in.....

 

 

Mar21_00zNAM12.gif

Mar21_00zNAM18.gif

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Just now, powderfreak said:

Fun watching the posts roll in today....everyone making fun of the post count in this thread earlier and "who cares" stuff.  

Now they rollin in by the minute.

Not me buddy 

finally a different kind of storm to track 

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6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Both NAMs pivot the deform from Mitch to Alex.

00z HRRR looked similar... ALB area towards Alex.

IMG_2620.thumb.PNG.90bbf754ac534df93585ab269acb8de8.PNG

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10 minutes ago, MarkO said:

Yeah, scratching my head as well. My forecast total snowfall is less than an inch tonight, less than 1/2" tomorrow night and all rain otherwise. 

Stay the course, There not going to knee jerk on just the 0z run, They will make updates in the AFD and the make changes on the next shift change AFD overnight if needed.

 

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Just now, dryslot said:

Stay the course, There not going to knee jerk on just the 0z run, They will make updates in the AFD and the make changes on the next shift change AFD overnight.

 

This. I mean the run isn’t even finished yet. lol

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Just now, dryslot said:

Stay the course, There not going to knee jerk on just the 0z run, They will make updates in the AFD and the make changes on the next shift change AFD overnight if needed.

 

The 00z literally just came out, I'm not even sure the NAM fully ran.  How fast do people think they will make a change?

And how often would one expect a NWS office to update only with the NAM out so far.

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Staying the course doesn’t work that well should people wake up to S +

which is why it’s always practical to highlight “things could change “ when situations like this present themselves 

Some 18z runs hinted at this and frankly so did satellite 

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Just now, powderfreak said:

 

The 00z literally just came out, I'm not even sure the NAM fully ran.  How fast do people think they will make a change?

And how often would one expect a NWS office to update only with the NAM out so far.

Yup, Grab a paper bag and take some deep breaths.............:lol:

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Staying the course doesn’t work that well should people wake up to S +

which is why it’s always practical to highlight “things could change “ when situations like this present themselves 

 Nobody is reading there NWS offices AFD's other then us weenies here, Most are checking there phone apps, Which are lol.

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7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

 

The 00z literally just came out, I'm not even sure the NAM fully ran.  How fast do people think they will make a change?

And how often would one expect a NWS office to update only with the NAM out so far.

I was surprised even late this afternoon that they did not have a WWA for N NH over elevated WS watch. Down to 34.9/26f Maybe I'll start accumulating from the get go. Was really warm thru early eve then dropping nicely. Thought it would take awhile for boundary layer to cool but it's doing that nicely quicker than I thought.

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Reggie is pretty interesting too for SNE elevations...it's crushing dendrite and gene.

 

 

Mar22_00zRGEM12.png

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3km NAM... very narrow band of mid-level goodies then a lot of orographic snows.  Mountains still destroyed but definitely scattered some pasty snows SE of the mountains.

IMG_2622.PNG.bce54cff6482da09476a9f7d67130500.PNG

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