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March 22-23 Storm Thread: Cabins and Pony-Os?


powderfreak
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Just now, MarkO said:

fixed!

Ha true.  I was saying days ago just issue the warnings for those zones...you don't even have to analyze much.  Cyclonic moisture and these bookend season (autumn and spring) storms when more QPF rich air is available...upslope zones gonna crush.

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha true.  I was saying days ago just issue the warnings for those zones...you don't even have to analyze much.  Cyclonic moisture and these bookend season (autumn and spring) storms when more QPF rich air is available...upslope zones gonna crush.

True. Seen it countless times since mid 90's when I had a ski house at Sugarbush. Spring storms always seemed to overproduce at elevation. 

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13 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Easiest forecast out there...the upslope zones were getting crushed.  All this spring moisture shoved into the north or northwest mountains....done deal.

It's not even upslope yet!

Under the TROWAL, dry slot moves overhead and it starts to get convective there.

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Was this snow today modeled or was it a surprise? Maybe the 00z Nam started picking up on it?

I didn't really hone in on SNE, but I saw some of the 3km precip algorithms had snow mixing back in across CT as the TROWAL rotated through. 

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8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It's not even upslope yet!

Under the TROWAL, dry slot moves overhead and it starts to get convective there.

It looked like low level flow veered more northerly...maybe not upslope but you put that northerly flow under easterly flow aloft and that northern slope of the Presidentials is going to rip.  

Same in VT now... radar just blew up on the western slopes (even BTV down to 1/2sm Snow) with the low level wind swinging more northerly under the NE flow aloft.  

Not upslope but definitely enhancement?  

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It looked like low level flow veered more northerly...maybe not upslope but you put that northerly flow under easterly flow aloft and that northern slope of the Presidentials is going to rip.  

Same in VT now... radar just blew up on the western slopes (even BTV down to 1/2sm Snow) with the low level wind swinging more northerly under the NE flow aloft.  

Not upslope but definitely enhancement?  

That I can buy.

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16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Was this snow today modeled or was it a surprise? Maybe the 00z Nam started picking up on it?

Potent Arctic short wave pivots along the southern New England coast 
with comma-head precip overspreading the entire region, intensity 
peaking around 06z. As cold air advection increases and column cools 
any rain showers early this evening flips over the snow later this 
evening and overnight, all areas including Cape Cod and the Islands. 
In fact the entire region could pickup a coating to an inch or two 
possible as cross sections reveal most of the lift occurring in the 
snow growth region, maximizing snowfall potential. Tho with min 
temps hovering around freezing across eastern MA snow accumulations 
may be confined to colder/non paved surfaces here. However 
significant accumulations (4-8") are possible in the upslope 
regions of the Berkshires (above 1000 ft) and perhaps 1-3" in the 
Worcester Hills into Tolland county of CT per the Hi Res guidance. 
Not enough confidence to expand Winter Weather Advisory into the 
Worcester Hills and northeast CT, but if 12z model guid continues 
this increased qpf trend an advisory may be needed. 

As 980 mb low tracks along the ME coast, strong NW winds on the 
backside of the low overspreads southern New England. As CAA 
increases low level lapse rates steepen and support NW winds gusting 
up to 40 mph at times. Strongest winds will be across western MA/CT 
where gusts up to 45 are possible. If 12z models trend upward with 
winds may need a wind advisory for western MA/CT tonight. 

Temps falling into the upper 20s across CT and western-central MA 
with low 30s in RI and eastern MA.

 

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8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

That I can buy.

That's where I think the enhancement helps for seeder feeder....helps make those monster aggregate dendrites.  Those things link up and it's like silver dollars.  Web cams on west slopes in VT look similar.  Flake size looked smaller at Stowe side from what I could see.

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4 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Brian,  I'm up to 35.2F with sprinkles but heavier precip about to move back in from east.  When does the column begin to cool for us?  Are we about at max warmth right now?

MWN has wind from 40 degrees and backing. It's not warming up from here.

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7 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Brian,  I'm up to 35.2F with sprinkles but heavier precip about to move back in from east.  When does the column begin to cool for us?  Are we about at max warmth right now?

Temp dropped from high of 34.7 to currently 33.6 in past 40 minutes. Rain/snow back to aggregates, although it's lightened in intensity. It's going to have to drop to freezing to accumulate. Not sure if/when that happens.

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1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Man the water vapor loop from this thing is awesome. 

I know I sound link Ginx... but definitely NB. 

Ok so whats wrong with sounding like me? You should be as enthusiastic about your profession as I am,  you would be on the Today show getting hit on by teenagers and old people all over the globe

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Ok so whats wrong with sounding like me? You should be as enthusiastic about your profession as I am,  you would be on the Today show getting hit on by teenagers and old people all over the globe

I'm probably too enthusiastic as it is lol

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