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March 22-23 Storm Thread: Cabins and Pony-Os?


powderfreak
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1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

I'll die if this verifies. 

Almost certainly some aspect of mesoscale QPF GW there. I think shave 30% off the top as a starter for sure.

The 3km NAM has a fairly well known orographic QPF bias. I know in western states it's 130% of reality on average. Would have to imagine similar around here.

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

Almost certainly some aspect of mesoscale QPF GW there. I think shave 30% off the top as a starter for sure.

The 3km NAM has a fairly well known orographic QPF bias. I know in western states it's 130% of reality on average. Would have to imagine similar around here.

Yup. Always manages to produce some :weenie: amounts. A 2-5" kind of forecast for Kevin seems OK right about now. 

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