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March 22-23 Storm Thread: Cabins and Pony-Os?


powderfreak
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27 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Small flakes just showed up here in Augusta.  Nice echoes appeared immediately north of home, headed northward, thus probably missing our place completely.  However, even brighter bands are approaching from the south and S. Franklin has graduated to advisory level.  Saw 4.7" from Rochester, NH on cocorahs.

Ignore that Rochester report - I aw the 4.7" from someplace in the 'Dacks.  :o

Not sure what's coming down here.  It's graying the shadowed parts of the paved lot, like between vehicles, and flakes this small and sparse can't do that in near-32 late March.  IP?  Longest view from here is perhaps 3/8 mile, and there's hardly any lowering of visibility.

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Relative bust more than a 'positive bust', though the latter is semantic/vernacular of off-air and/or weather-related social media anyway... But, positive bust has more of a left field connotation about it - as in ..blind sided.  Dec 23 1997 2-5" of wiper blade glop ... turns into 12-20" over a considerably large area of a snow type that was occurring at < 26 F.

Today's event was always marginal and is largely playing out that way... But the run up was coming along with a larger uncertainty envelope.  ... We'll see how things coalesce through the evening (if they do) but right now this is a pedestrian event - I'm actually a little surprised by the lack of cohesiveness on radar all throughout the north east with this thing.  

I firmly believe the S/W diving through the Lakes and crashing into the backside of this is interfering with this system.  

Originally ...last week, we were hemming and hawing over whether there would be a phase between Lake S/W and intermediate stream S/W ...which at the time, the Euro was nadda.  The FV3' more than less began with that about 5 ... 6 days ago.. Of course, the rank and file of the Flies in here made fun of it... greased into doing so because the Euro still insisted keeping the intermediate southern wave separate ... and progressing  the whole look off into the Altantic... 

Then, about 3 days ago, a most intriguing thing happened ...  It was the Euro that would acquiesce, a fact that I've heard no one pay homage to (as an aside). But, by then ...most models were on board for the Lakes phase... and it was game on.  

But, during the last 3 days ... this late arriving S/W has been getting more aggressive and I'm not sure if it has really been discussed. I think ...largely ignored.  But, it's diving in and screwing with the physics of the original Lakes S/W with the intermediate stream interplay... You can see that on the 00z and 06z GFS initializations ..and advancing those charts ahead through 30 hours, rather nicely, how this party crasher is acting like a kicker, and lifting the original phase out really quickly and ultimately disrupting matters.  

I think it also didn't help that the llv baroclinicity was pretty amorphous going into this thing ... owing to sun annihilation for days without a fresh polar source, no doubt.  

 

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20 minutes ago, Arnold214 said:

Tough forecast for sure. As soon as I saw that the sfc thru 700 low was going to rapidly deepen to our southeast and east I jacked up totals. But i should have gone further east with advisories. Stuff flew in quickly. 

I wonder if the delay in precip (was supposed to start ~8z) helped wet bulbs tick down too. Flow being more easterly definitely allowed slightly lower dews in the backdoor.

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2019-03-22_8-36-08_zpssqtsrnys.png

I mean this was only 24 hours ago from the NAM. Mid level winds are most definitely south of east.

2019-03-22_8-34-47_zpsw3pipahl.png

And here's the 1 hour lead time from this morning's NAM. No warm nose and mid level winds most definitely almost due east. Our actual sounding had about +0.5C at it's warmest.

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10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

2019-03-22_8-36-08_zpssqtsrnys.png

I mean this was only 24 hours ago from the NAM. Mid level winds are most definitely south of east.

2019-03-22_8-34-47_zpsw3pipahl.png

And here's the 1 hour lead time from this morning's NAM. No warm nose and mid level winds most definitely almost due east. Our actual sounding had about +0.5C at it's warmest.

The southern stream vort was/is pretty compact. Perhaps stronger and deeper than models predicted. As it continued to deepen you probably developed a stout northerly ageostrophic draw which aided in cooling the sfc-700 layer. Helped those winds to be more easterly vs se.

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Just now, Arnold214 said:

The southern stream vort was/is pretty compact. Perhaps stronger and deeper than models predicted. As it continued to deepen you probably developed a stout northerly ageostrophic draw which aided in cooling the sfc-700 layer. 

Pretty impressive to take 5000 ft of above-freezing air and turn it sub-freezing overnight. And of course this wasn't exclusively a NAM problem either.

The position error was always the biggest spread with ensemble sensitivity. And the position error (not strength) was always the biggest driver of rain vs snow for the GYX area.

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We had an inch when I left the house a 6:45.  It was snow almost all the down to 91.  The drive to St. J was not bad as the highway was mostly just wet.  Snowing at a very good clip here in St. J.

 

Meanwhile our Subaru is in the shop and the loaner has summer tires.  grr

 

I need just 7.3 to get to 100" for the season.  Let's see if this gets me there.   (I likely have 2 or 3 extra from 11/9 but I was out of town and could not measure)

 

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Pretty telling Chris. Good comparison. 

 

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Lava rock on the line there. Looks like changeover moving west slowly.

The lows are in pretty short order going to slip east of our longitude too. It'll be interesting to see where the melting layer can stall. Already looks like it may be eroding in York County.

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

Pretty impressive to take 5000 ft of above-freezing air and turn it sub-freezing overnight. And of course this wasn't exclusively a NAM problem either.

The position error was always the biggest spread with ensemble sensitivity. And the position error (not strength) was always the biggest driver of rain vs snow for the GYX area.

you think we'll go over to rn as frcst? what would be the timing on that?

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4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Pretty impressive to take 5000 ft of above-freezing air and turn it sub-freezing overnight. And of course this wasn't exclusively a NAM problem either.

The position error was always the biggest spread with ensemble sensitivity. And the position error (not strength) was always the biggest driver of rain vs snow for the GYX area.

The models were still having problems with the interaction between the northern and southern stream waves. The 12z ecmwf seemed to have figured it out for the most part y’day. Once you close off a mid level low to the east of our location in March, it’s going to favor snow.

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4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

 

The lows are in pretty short order going to slip east of our longitude too. It'll be interesting to see where the melting layer can stall. Already looks like it may be eroding in York County.

Glad we got more folks interested in this...I envisioned the obs thread as like JSpin, myself and Alex...and maybe Ginxy.  Nice to see the posts flying.  Congrats over there on the snow bust.

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3 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

you think we'll go over to rn as frcst? what would be the timing on that?

We did at the office. The question now I think is whether it's a permanent flip or if we'll change back to snow as the mid levels cool with the passing of the upper trof. 

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1 minute ago, Arnold214 said:

The models were still having problems with the interaction between the northern and southern stream waves. The 12z ecmwf seemed to have figured it out for the most part y’day. Once you close off a mid level low to the east of our location in March, it’s going to favor snow.

Sucks the Euro is coming in too late for the forecasts again. 

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