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March 22-23 Storm Thread: Cabins and Pony-Os?


powderfreak
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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Just got caught up.  Great discussion by the Mets in here and then there's Brian. 

Helluva full moon goon incoming.  Congrats PF Mitch Pete. Powdah over meat for the rippers

The full moon gave me a great rad cooling night last night. Tomorrow it's a big storm. I'm pro-moon.

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3 hours ago, klw said:

There was a storm in mid-April of 92 which gave BTV about a foot with less east of the Greens.  I was up and visiting the WRJ area and there was a surprise couple of inches.  Elevation dependent except for West of the Greens.  I have no idea what the set up for the storm was.  It was a couple or a few weeks after the Montpelier floods.

That must be the one that dumped 12-15" on the ALB area right after a torch - def band parked there for about 12 hours.  CF was progged to keep moving - IIRC, we in the Augusta area were supposed to get 3-6 or some such, got maybe a flurry as the precip departed ahead of the front.

Not looking forward to 1-2" cold RA with maybe a shushing at both ends.  C'est la vie. 

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4 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Looks like snow to start for me up here at my elevation.  Then cold rain and back to snow.  4-5" according to Euro.  I'm right on the line.  

NAM and GFS get 925 warm pretty quickly. +2C here valid 6z despite 850 and 2m being near 0C.

Maybe you can sneak a little snow on both ends, but I'm not feeling too confident down here. Maybe a coating followed by plenty of rain and then some weak Robert Kraft reach around from the ULL that probably melts on contact.

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One upshot for warm enthusiasts in all this ... a latter bloomer/bomb deal spares SNE an annoying snow pack heading into Sunday's relative balm

Amazing D3 to 4 turn around in the 850s there.  -10  C regionally to +2 has been modeled from 12z Saturday to 12z Sunday for a many cycles and continues to be the case in the Euro.  Also...full sun, west NW katabatic flow... probably soars to the mid 60s in some of the finest air on the planet actually when that sort of set up comes to pass.  `

Probably the first "DS dandy" of the season ...which, provided the present butt bang solutions actually bang butt...being the irony.  It might be hard to DSD if otherwise there is a half foot of toothpaste on the ground...  That's gotta be hard on winter enthusiasts - you have my sympathies... screwed, then face smacked by nice weather.

Even the Euro is now waiting...  paltry low after a slug of rain and SE drift to the wind ?   Interesting to venture through the models during this trek and end up with that being the high confidence mode for SNE...  Then, it explodes and bombs just E of Boston - not sure there won't be some sort of instant rad fill in of rain going over when that happens...seems like a helluva anchor not to but, heh... glad I'm not getting paid to do this because I'm pretty sick of this piece of shit already to be frank.

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10 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

I think if it doesn't show snow it is considered boring by some on here. I am just looking for a good coastal storm regardless of precipitation type especially being down in the NYC metro area.

This one gets going too late for major coastal impacts at home. And that’s why I’m heading up to 1400’ in the greens with potential to get to 3850’.

 

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17 minutes ago, dendrite said:

NAM and GFS get 925 warm pretty quickly. +2C here valid 6z despite 850 and 2m being near 0C.

Maybe you can sneak a little snow on both ends, but I'm not feeling too confident down here. Maybe a coating followed by plenty of rain and then some weak Robert Kraft reach around from the ULL that probably melts on contact.

Thanks Brian.  Sent you a PM.  4F difference between old and new VP2.  That fan makes all the difference.  Im like in a new colder climate!

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57 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

No change 

Definitely a bit further west with the best forcing.

That just destroys upstate NY, even ART and SYR.

It's upper 30s over the Spine and east for a while.  Noticeable difference on the margins.

Definitely in the realm of possibilities that upstate NY gets into this a bit more.

IMG_2586.thumb.PNG.c13c0b2b295b6744671384e4a0e13cd9.PNG

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Definitely a bit further west with the best forcing.

That just destroys upstate NY, even ART and SYR.

It's upper 30s over the Spine and east for a while.  Noticeable difference on the margins.

Definitely in the realm of possibilities that upstate NY gets into this a bit more.

IMG_2586.thumb.PNG.c13c0b2b295b6744671384e4a0e13cd9.PNG

son of a *itch, so darn close for southern parts, few more ticks.(ya right)

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14 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Definitely a bit further west with the best forcing.

That just destroys upstate NY, even ART and SYR.

It's upper 30s over the Spine and east for a while.  Noticeable difference on the margins.

Definitely in the realm of possibilities that upstate NY gets into this a bit more.

IMG_2586.thumb.PNG.c13c0b2b295b6744671384e4a0e13cd9.PNG

Doesn't look much different than 6Z

9-km ECMWF USA Surface +3-Hourly undefined undefined 87.png

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