Dec 2019

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

There seems to be a planetary index that has to do with pulsations of the Earth: Same movements correlate over time. 

Between mid-Winter and 2 months later, there is significant difference in the poleward movement on this side of the Globe, over and north of the Oceans:

We currently have a historic +NAO happening: 

I love this, how it's maxed out:

Look at how much it carries over into December in the last 10 years:

An example of March opposite:

March same as:

March-April-December 500mb evolution, March is the base state`500mb visual. (click to animate)

*Higher than average chance of +NAO December. 

ENSO subsurface is strengthening, positive in March. 

Analogs:

 

March NAO isn't so much about the region consistency-anomaly, as it is poleward progression sequence. 

 

[raindancewx]

There is pretty good research that even though "blocking" is correlated to low solar activity it isn't necessarily a canonical -NAO pattern that tends to show up. I guess my point is we may be moving away from a regime where -NAO patterns are the canonical method of moving cold air out of the Arctic and to regimes more directly tied to the sun. So I don't know that the lack of -NAO periods in high solar and low periods prior to big El Ninos, or prior to behavior in December will work as it has before even though I think your right about the prior relationships.

http://www.climatedialogue.org/what-will-happen-during-a-new-maunder-minimum/#comments

Figure 4: (a). Composite difference maps of winter (December/January/February) means of mean surface level pressure (MSLP, contours 1 hPa apart) and 2-m temperature (colour map) between low- and high-solar conditions defined by the lower and upper terciles of the open solar flux (F_S). (b). Scaled anomalies associated with the NAO for comparison, in this case the two subsets are for the lower and upper terciles of the NAO index. Data are from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting ERA-40 reanalysis data set (Uppala et al. 2005) extended to cover 44 complete winters (1957/1958 to 2000/2001) using operational data. A bootstrap test was employed, resampling the sets of winters in order to estimate the sampling uncertainty, to test whether the solar pattern in a was different from that associated with the NAO in b: this found that the two patterns are significantly different at the 93% level [from Woollings et al. 2010]. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Following on the El Nino theme.