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gymengineer

Grading Winter 2018-2019

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My first time grading. I think a D. I think a C for the winter but I then drooped it for the golfing impact.

The pluses were the early start in November, the11 inches in January, and hitting snowfall averages.

The negatives were the disappointments I felt after lurking on the board all winter such as the relatively big snowfall predictions, reading the Euro weeklies are cold the next four weeks, etc. Also because of the early winter start and the continued wetness, I probably golfed less this winter then I have in a long-time. And it continues. Last Monday, Tuesday, yesterday, today and tomorrow, it looks like I will need four layers of clothes, including thermals, to golf which makes it hard to swing a club. And adding insult to injury, my  golf trip to Palm Springs and then Vegas had two 90 minute frost delays and the shorts I packed were useless as I needed thermals and pants,

 

 

 

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8 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

The last "A" was honestly 02-03. 90s were such a better weather era. 

I'd give 09/10 an A. I had snow on the ground close to 80 days.

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Centreville VA, A-

I think grading is going to be extra location dependent this year. From DC down south I think it was a pretty great winter. Most weeks we had something to keep an eye on, plenty of little events materialized and I finished with a little above average snowfall for my area. The January event was amazing and the November storm was a suprise treat. I think we all saw early on that the weeklies and other long range guidence was going to be extra useless this year so I didn't hang my hat on any excessively snowy patterns being spit out. I know how uncommon gangbuster events are for this region so not getting one, even in a Ninõ doesn't bother me. If your up north and didn't hit Climo I see your gripe, but otherwise it really felt like a nice winter overall.  

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1 hour ago, DanTheMan said:

Centreville VA, A-

I think grading is going to be extra location dependent this year. From DC down south I think it was a pretty great winter. Most weeks we had something to keep an eye on, plenty of little events materialized and I finished with a little above average snowfall for my area. The January event was amazing and the November storm was a suprise treat. I think we all saw early on that the weeklies and other long range guidence was going to be extra useless this year so I didn't hang my hat on any excessively snowy patterns being spit out. I know how uncommon gangbuster events are for this region so not getting one, even in a Ninõ doesn't bother me. If your up north and didn't hit Climo I see your gripe, but otherwise it really felt like a nice winter overall.  

I would have loved you as a professor.

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On 3/17/2019 at 3:04 PM, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

The last "A" was honestly 02-03. 90s were such a better weather era. 

Some recent weenie research I did made me realize how utter crap the 90's were ('94 and '96 being outliers). At BWI, there was not a single 6"+ storm from January 1988 to March 1993 (which I believe is the longest stretch on record). There was also not a single 6"+ storm from February 1996 to January 2000 (which may be the 3rd longest stretch on record).

Honestly the 2010's have been the best decade for snow that I've personally seen (11/12 and 12/13 being outliers). Four climo+ winters IMBY in a decade? That ain't happening again in my lifetime.

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D. Too many nickle and dime events to suit me. Also, the tracking was sub par because almost all tracking events were minor systems. The general overall pattern sucked and I know just enough about this hobby to recognize when a system has very little chance of being an overperformer,   notwithstanding our January storm. For me, the excitement of this hobby is having the potential of a warning level event and we had what one or two of those? Had precious few storms riding up the coast and don't get me started about the "big pattern change". Ugh.

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1 minute ago, Wonderdog said:

D. Too many nickle and dime events to suit me. Also, the tracking was sub par because almost all tracking events were minor systems. The general overall pattern sucked and I know just enough about this hobby to recognize when a system has very little chance of being an overperformer,   notwithstanding our January storm. For me, the excitement of this hobby is having the potential of a warning level event and we had what one or two of those? Had precious few storms riding up the coast and don't get me started about the "big pattern change". Ugh.

I'd like to have original thought here but those are my exact feelings so ditto. 

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B+ winter here in rockville. Snow fell often between jan and march..one really good storm in jan..another decent one in feb! Several other small snows ..cant really ask for much more except some prolonged cold! Shocked at some of these abysmal grades..do people know their climo!!!

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My grade was based on what I would like to see, not climo.  If I crushed my climo by 10" with 1 storm in December and it didn't snow again the rest of the winter I would see it as a fail.  All of the standing water around my house from the rain rarely had ice on it.....fail.  Any snow that fell was gone the next day.....fail

 

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12 hours ago, weatherjedi said:

B+ winter here in rockville. Snow fell often between jan and march..one really good storm in jan..another decent one in feb! Several other small snows ..cant really ask for much more except some prolonged cold! Shocked at some of these abysmal grades..do people know their climo!!!

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I sorta agree with that statement. If you hit climo I'd think that would be an automatic 'C'. Now, if you go off expectations or what is modeled or forecasted and it bombs 2 or 3 times, that may drop it to a 'C-', but I'd have a hard time grading lower than that hitting your yearly average, which is what a C is, right?

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Yes..I agree. Hitting climo should gaurantee a C minimum. Actually if one uses median instead of mean than people near DC , DCA and IAD are probably well over. Psu has elaborated on this many times..I mean how can last winter and this one get the same grade unless one uses expectations ..long range modelling fails etc as a measure. Entertaining nevertheless..

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