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weatherwiz

Low topped Convective Potential Friday, March 15th, 2019

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A plume of rather steep mid-level lapse rates will be traversing the region tomorrow and this will help generate a few hundred J of elevated instability. Strong cold front with vorticity approaching along with some pretty strong dynamics. Should have enough forcing, couple with elevated instability for some low topped convection to develop. Highest potential may be SE MA. Given the shear aloft, low-ish freezing levels, and steep mid-level lapse rates can't rule out some strong/damaging wind gusts and small hail with any convection tomorrow. 

That time of year is getting here!!!

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18z looks decent to get just enough updraft oomph for a few lightning strikes. Convective temps should be reached. Several hundred J of elevated CAPE too

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Steep mid-level lapse rates helping to generate ~250 J/KG of MUCape...even a couple hundred J of CAPE in the -10 to -30C layer. Nice line of heavy showers in central CT. If tops can get a little taller should maybe spit out some lightning. 

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HRRR has been pretty consistent with developing some heavy rain/thunder across S CT and moving it into RI and SE MA later this evening. 

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1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Lots of frequent lightning 

Ain't that low topped either. 50 dBZ to 20,000 ft is more than enough this time of year for lots of lightning.

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So I get back and now everything is moved north 50 miles from early this morning. Interesting. Hrrr goes wild. 

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

So I get back and now everything is moved north 50 miles from early this morning. Interesting. Hrrr goes wild. 

The HRRR really develops that stuff off to the southwest as it moves in. 

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4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Ain't that low topped either. 50 dBZ to 20,000 ft is more than enough this time of year for lots of lightning.

Sweet!

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10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Lapse rates were modeled steep yesterday. But it seemed like LLJ woukd

be South. I guess that changed.

Still looks like it’s south. Those storms forming to the SW are in an area of decent SBCape. Wonder if that stuff was aided by differential heating zone. Think they had more sun down that way 

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Still looks like it’s south. Those storms forming to the SW are in an area of decent SBCape. Wonder if that stuff was aided by differential heating zone. Think they had more sun down that way 

Everything moved north. Stuff in Jersey is primed for SNE. I was away all day and this looks north of 12hrs ago. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Everything moved north. Stuff in Jersey is primed for SNE. I was away all day and this looks north of 12hrs ago. 

Yeah it certainly is north. Models looked more SE CT, RI, and SE MA. I may even get hit!!!

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1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Radar starting to look fun

 All the action will be well south of you.   We definitely had some of the loudest thunder I have heard in a while this morning. 

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