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Low topped Convective Potential Friday, March 15th, 2019


weatherwiz
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A plume of rather steep mid-level lapse rates will be traversing the region tomorrow and this will help generate a few hundred J of elevated instability. Strong cold front with vorticity approaching along with some pretty strong dynamics. Should have enough forcing, couple with elevated instability for some low topped convection to develop. Highest potential may be SE MA. Given the shear aloft, low-ish freezing levels, and steep mid-level lapse rates can't rule out some strong/damaging wind gusts and small hail with any convection tomorrow. 

That time of year is getting here!!!

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10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Lapse rates were modeled steep yesterday. But it seemed like LLJ woukd

be South. I guess that changed.

Still looks like it’s south. Those storms forming to the SW are in an area of decent SBCape. Wonder if that stuff was aided by differential heating zone. Think they had more sun down that way 

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Still looks like it’s south. Those storms forming to the SW are in an area of decent SBCape. Wonder if that stuff was aided by differential heating zone. Think they had more sun down that way 

Everything moved north. Stuff in Jersey is primed for SNE. I was away all day and this looks north of 12hrs ago. 

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