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HillsdaleMIWeather

March 13th-14th Severe Weather

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3 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Crapvection will make this mediocre for most areas, especially the western end of SPC’s risk area. Seems to be the norm the last several years. 

Don’t mind me while I struggle to remove my foot from my mouth. 

That line near Peoria May be interesting for the metro in a couple hours 

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MS storms taking off

RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 25  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1210 PM CDT THU MAR 14 2019  
  
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF   
  NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA  
  NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI  
  PARTS OF WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE  
  
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1210 PM  
  UNTIL 700 PM CDT.  
  
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...  
  SEVERAL TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES  
    POSSIBLE  
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY  
  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE  
  
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY IN A BROKEN  
BAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO  
NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE.  THE STORM ENVIRONMENT  
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A COUPLE OF  
STRONG TORNADOES, ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.  

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7 minutes ago, NTXYankee said:

Per visible a nice clearing is headed to CMH.  We’ve had very little in the way of rain today except this morning early.  Thinking Ohio is going to be a surprise later.

I've been thinking the same thing all day as well.  RAP is bringing the best EHI from the current storms in KY/IN all the way up to north-central Ohio; HRRR keeps the highest EHI values west of CMH.  Not going to rule out tornadoes near CMH though (SPC has a 5%-10% in the area for a reason).

This is very much a now-casting situation.

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The amount of discrete/semi-discrete well developed supercells making their way into southern Indiana is uhhh.... concerning. Basically every storm that isn’t clustered has a hook.

supercell east of Evansville (or near Boonville) will be one to watch. Rotation has really started to ramp up.

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17 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Don’t mind me while I struggle to remove my foot from my mouth. 

That line near Peoria May be interesting for the metro in a couple hours 

Hey, you're not alone.  The CAM output last night had me thinking too much early convection/leftover cloud cover.  Meanwhile, the sun is out here now.

Fine line in these setups.

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This radar grab is ominous to say the least. We’ve got several semi-discrete cells with well-defined hook echoes. Kind of reminds of 4-16-11 in North Carolina. We might be looking at a significant tornado outbreak!

BE7D43E1-2D19-471E-9A2B-1006B41E0841.png

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Dear atmosphere,

If we're going to have severe weather events, could you please at least make it a clear-cut high risk, PDS day? When was the last time there was one of those in Dixie? 4/28/14? The Plains? 4/14/12? OH Valley? 3/2/12? Enough with these conditionally nasty days, some of which underperform like last Saturday and some of which produce something like 3/3 or today?

Sincerely,

The entire U.S. weather enterprise

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RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 26  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1220 PM CDT THU MAR 14 2019  
  
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF   
  NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS  
  EXTREME NORTHWESTERN INDIANA  
  LAKE MICHIGAN  
  
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM 1220 PM UNTIL 500 PM  
  CDT.  
  
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...  
  A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE  
  ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE  
  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE  
  
SUMMARY...A BROKEN ARC OF LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS IS EXPECTED THIS  
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS.  THE STORM ENVIRONMENT WILL  
FAVOR A THREAT FOR TORNADOES, ONE OR TWO OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG,  
ALONG WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS.  THE STORMS WILL  
LIKELY PEAK IN INTENSITY BY 1-3 PM CDT, AND COULD AFFECT THE CHICAGO  
METROPOLITAN AREA.  

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3 minutes ago, Calderon said:

Wow, very intense motion, including vertical, along with horizontal vortices. 

Yeah, those horizontal funnels are reminiscent of some very volatile/active days... seem to occur when the energy in the atmosphere is ample for rotation.

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3 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

There has been very curious lack of confirmed tornadoes the past couple of hours

 

Radars and scans look crazy good, but yeah no real confirmed reports.

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Hopefully most of those radar indicated rotations and wall clouds do not produce.  Yet it is somewhat unusual to have such a conveyor belt of training supercells like we have in sw IN.

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Any risk across NE. Illinois will definitely remain isolated. The tor watch was probably for a precaution, but the 10% hatched tor risk is laughable and beyond bad.

The environment right now is actually decent, but there is way too much activity ongoing to take advantage of it.

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2 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

I'd say the 2 leading tor warned cells in Indiana are close to having tors in progress or already do.

That supercell between Mitchell and Medora looks highly likely to being on the ground right now. CC really popped as it went over Orleans and has been downtrending the last few scans, along with the velocity couplet. 

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Is it me or are these storms not moving east at all. Seems like the line has stalled and is just training. Would allow more time to destablize to the east...

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PDS warning for Lawrence & Jackson, IN...

Quote
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN LAWRENCE AND WESTERN JACKSON COUNTIES...

At 157 PM EDT, a large and extremely dangerous tornado was located 8
miles west of Brownstown, or 16 miles east of Bedford, moving
northeast at 65 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
         will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
         businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
         is possible.

The tornado will be near...
  Brownstown around 205 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is developing. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to
a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

 

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Brownstown storm...

Quote
The National Weather Service in Indianapolis has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southwestern Decatur County in central Indiana...
  Southern Bartholomew County in central Indiana...
  Central Jackson County in south central Indiana...
  Central Jennings County in southeastern Indiana...

* Until 230 PM EDT.

* At 206 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located over Brownstown, or 9 miles west of Seymour, moving
  northeast at 60 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

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