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March 13th-14th Severe Weather


HillsdaleMIWeather
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HE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHEASTERN MASSAC COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...  
  SOUTHEASTERN POPE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...  
  SOUTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...  
  CENTRAL MCCRACKEN COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...  
  
* UNTIL 1000 AM CDT.  
  
* AT 926 AM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LOVELACEVILLE,  
  OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LONE OAK, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  

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32 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

Sun trying to come out over  SW parts of the outlook area

 

also I'm surprised there isn't a mention over central IL to NW IND for a secondary area

 

 

That area of subsidence you mentioned behind the initial line is where I would anticipate redevelopment later today with the cold front in addition to the emphasis on the enhanced area to the east.

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NO SH!T ...  SPC behind real time

ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0205  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0931 AM CDT THU MAR 14 2019  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN KY...FAR SOUTHWESTERN IN...SOUTHERN IL  
  
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY   
  
VALID 141431Z - 141630Z  
  
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT  
  
SUMMARY...SUPERCELL INTENSITY VIA STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL  
MESOCYCLONES WILL PROBABLY INTENSIFY FURTHER DURING THE NEXT FEW  
HOURS AS HEATING AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN BUOYANCY CONTRIBUTE TO A  
GREATER TORNADO RISK SPREADING NORTHEAST IN A DESTABILIZING WARM  
SECTOR.  
  
DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN CLOUD COVER  
ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY WITH A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS MOVING  
QUICKLY NORTHEAST (230 DEG AT 52KT).  SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS  
TEMPERATURES OVER WESTERN KY RANGING FROM NEAR 70 DEGREES F WITH  
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S.  FARTHER NORTHEAST IN SOUTHWEST  
IN AND ADJACENT PORTIONS TO THE EAST ALONG THE OH RIVER,  
TEMPERATURES ARE RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 WITH DEWPOINTS  
IN THE UPPER 50S.  THE PAH VAD SHOWS 500 M2/S2 0-1KM SRH.  
  
13Z RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AS THE AIRMASS GRADUALLY  
DESTABILIZES DURING THE LATE MORNING, A RISK FOR LOW-LEVEL  
MESOCYCLONES CAPABLE OF A TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE.   
UPWARDS OF 500 J/KG MLCAPE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.  CURRENTLY  
THINKING THE GREATEST RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL ACCOMPANY THE  
QUASI-DISCRETE SUPERCELL ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES FROM WESTERN KY  
DOWNSTREAM INTO SOUTHWEST IN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WHICH  
WILL COINCIDE WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE ON THE NORTH-END OF THE  
NEAR 60 DEGREES F SURFACE DEWPOINTS.  
  
..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 03/14/2019  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT  
  
ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...  
  
LAT...LON   36768915 37978866 38888751 38838670

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about an hour too late

 

RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 24  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1045 AM EDT THU MAR 14 2019  
  
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF   
  EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS  
  CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA  
  WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY  
  PARTS OF WESTERN OHIO  
  
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1045 AM  
  UNTIL 500 PM EDT.  
  
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...  
  SEVERAL TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES  
    POSSIBLE  
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY  
  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE  
  
SUMMARY...BROKEN BAND OF SUPERCELLS IS SPREADING RAPIDLY  
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY, AND THE TREND SHOULD CONTINUE  
INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND POTENTIALLY REACH  
WESTERN OHIO THIS AFTERNOON.  THE FAST MOVING STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE  
OF PRODUCING TORNADOES, A COUPLE OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG, ALONG  
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.  

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Not every day that you see several tornadic supercells at 10am with a 80/50 TOR watch already issued. Going to be interesting to watch this evolve. Not sure what ramifications these current storms will have for the potential in Indiana later quite yet. 

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Just now, jojo762 said:

Not every day that you see several tornadic supercells at 10am with a 80/50 TOR watch already issued. Going to be interesting to watch this evolve. Not sure what ramifications these current storms will have for the potential in Indiana later quite yet. 

With 600-800 effective SRH, any cloud breaks and destabilization will greatly increase tor threat. Watch out for the sun. 

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9 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Not every day that you see several tornadic supercells at 10am with a 80/50 TOR watch already issued. Going to be interesting to watch this evolve. Not sure what ramifications these current storms will have for the potential in Indiana later quite yet. 

WF tornadoes can be quite active...I remember Utica IL.  Then if you get clearing and heating before the cold front round two can occur.

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I find it interesting that multiple runs of the HRRR and RAP want to destabilize an area of Ohio (mainly western and central parts of the state) well ahead of the broken line of storms we are currently seeing around Paducah.  If one of those models verifies, EHI values may be fairly high in that area.  If SPC does decide to add in a hatched area for significant tornadoes, I'm going to be placing my bets on western and central Ohio (and perhaps eastern Indiana too) given what these models are showing, especially if storms can tap into that energy (though the modeled EHI values seem to drop as the broken line approaches). 

Basically what these models are showing is a broader area of instability into Ohio compared to the relatively narrow instability axis we are currently seeing.

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ALLATIN IL-UNION KY-  
1028 AM CDT THU MAR 14 2019  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 AM CDT FOR  
SOUTHEASTERN GALLATIN AND CENTRAL UNION COUNTIES...  
      
AT 1027 AM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MORGANFIELD,   
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
  
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
         SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE   
         TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE DAMAGE IS   
         LIKELY.  
  
THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF  
SOUTHEASTERN GALLATIN AND CENTRAL UNION COUNTIES.  

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