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Geoboy645

Spring/Summer 2019 Flooding Thread

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WTHR TV reporting that Brown County State Park is closed today and Tuesday due to flooding concerns and safety.   There is a lack of usable water supply due to flooding and storms per park website.

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Pattern just has that look of having the potential to produce monster amounts over the next week or two... perhaps double digits somewhere (from this point forward) if convective complexes hit the same area over and over again.  

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5 hours ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

18z NAM portrays the narrow deformation band potential. 

 

0z just a taaaaaaad wound up....overdone

and prob to far north then..just like a winter system

 

 

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Brown county state park still closed for Wed. and Thursday.  Apparently they get their water from Ogle Lake and the water treatment plant was damaged due to the flooding at that location.

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DVN just issued a flood watch for SE portions..I suspect ILX will expand more north to inlcude me and LOT will isssue south of I-80

just like a winter system..

.but instead of inches of snow inches of rain

 

edit: ILX did expand watch a row of counties north but not Peoria yet

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MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0455  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
1110 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2019  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...MID-MS RIVER VALLEY  
  
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE  
  
VALID 191509Z - 192109Z  
  
SUMMARY...CONVECTION MOVING INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE THIS  
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. WITH  
HOURLY RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES, SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL BE  
POSSIBLE.  
  
DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL  
MISSOURI ALONG WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL  
ILLINOIS IS MAINTAINING A COMPACT AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS  
NORTHEAST MO, SOUTHEAST IA AND WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS. WATER VAPOR  
IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHTS SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING  
THROUGH EASTERN KS INTO WESTERN MO AS OF 15Z WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING  
TO THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE REGION. THE LATEST  
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SCATTERED/BROKEN CLOUD COVER OVER  
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING  
IN A MOSTLY CIN FREE AREA. WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70, INSTABILITY  
HAS INCREASED AND IS CURRENTLY IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG WITH ALMOST  
2000 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. ALL OF THIS IS WITHIN A  
ZONE OF HIGHER PWS, PER THE BLENDED TPW PRODUCT, WHICH INDICATES  
VALUES OF 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES.  
  
AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO WEST CENTRAL IL INTO THE  
EARLY AFTERNOON, CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND  
INTENSITY. CURRENT ACTIVITY IS ALREADY SHOWING HOURLY RATES  
GREATER THAN 1". THE 06Z HREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE VERY HIGH  
PROBS OF RATES EXCEEDING 1" AND MODERATE PROBABILITIES (40-60  
PERCENT) OF HOURLY RATES EXCEEDING 2" BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A  
CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS SHOW WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF  
1-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS APPROACHING 4 INCHES  
POSSIBLE THROUGH 21Z.  
  
MOST OF THE EXPECTED RAINFALL WILL FALL ON SATURATED/WET SOILS,  
WHERE THE MOST RECENT AHPS 7-DAY PRECIP ANOMALIES ARE 200-400  
PERCENT OF NORMAL WITH THE EASTERN OUTLOOK AREA APPROACHING 600  
PERCENT OF NORMAL. AS SUCH, THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LOWERED  
(AROUND 2" FOR 1-HR) AND THIS SHOULD BE MET OR EXCEEDED INTO THE  
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE NATIONAL WATER MODEL SHOWS ABOVE NORMAL  
FLOW AND THE RECENT SOIL SATURATION GUIDANCE IS AROUND 85 PERCENT,  
WHICH SUGGESTS MOST OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE RUNOFF. WITH THIS IN  
MIND, FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY BY EARLY TO MID  
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION INTENSIFIES.  

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1 hour ago, janetjanet998 said:

DVN just issued a flood watch for SE portions..I suspect ILX will expand more north to inlcude me and LOT will isssue south of I-80

just like a winter system..

.but instead of inches of snow inches of rain

 

edit: ILX did expand watch a row of counties north but not Peoria yet

Does feel like kind of a winter-type system. The hrrr & other hi-res models have been consistently hinting at widespread 1-2”+ amounts with isolated significant amounts across much of IL south of I-80, could be the type of event where some areas get slammed

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LOT update

GUIDANCE HAS BEEN  
STRUGGLING TO HANDLE THESE SUBTLE AND SMALL-SCALE FEATURES, AND IT  
LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT TO VORTICITY MAY  
BE PLAYING A ROLE IN THE MODEL VARIABILITY. BASED ON LATEST RADAR  
AND SATELLITE TRENDS, IT DOES APPEAR AS IF A FARTHER NORTH  
SOLUTION MAY PAN OUT HERE THIS EVENING, AND MORNING GUIDANCE HAS  
BEGUN TO LATCH ON TO THIS POTENTIAL. AS A RESULT, HAVE EXPANDED  
AND UPPED POPS NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE  
REGION.   
  
WITH A FAIRLY MOIST AND DESTABILIZING AIRMASS IN PLACE AND PWATS  
CONTINUING TO RIDE UPWARDS TODAY, THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT MAY BE  
INCREASING FOR OUR SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES AS THE AFOREMENTIONED  
SHORTWAVE/MCV COMBO INTERCEPTS THIS MOIST AIRMASS. WE MAY NEED TO  
CONSIDER A TARGETED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR COUNTIES SOUTH OF I-80   
AS THIS NORTHWARD SHIFT WOULD BRING THE BETTER DYNAMICS INTO OUR  
CWA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO  
LOOK PRETTY MINIMAL, BUT SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITHIN PRECIP-  
LOADED DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON  
AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.   

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So the NAM wasn’t really out to lunch. I don’t discount its further north depictions in the mid-range, even in winter.

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36 minutes ago, tuanis said:

So the NAM wasn’t really out to lunch. I don’t discount its further north depictions in the mid-range, even in winter.

Partially.  It was overdeepening the low quite a bit.

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Just a novice but it's looking like a lot of rain is coming for north of 80 as well based on the radar

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going to be some big totals around the pivot point as 35-45 DBZ's stay parked for hours

Doppler is most likely underestimating precipitation amounts with this warm core system 

 

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Brown county state park to be closed through Sunday.  Big disappointment for campers and those who had reservations at the lodge and cabins.  Silt and mud that flowed into the water supply source at Ogle Lake in the park has compromised the park's water treatment facility.  Additional t storms in the current forecast as well.

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The Mississippi finally fell below flood stage in the QC (at Rock Island) after being over flood stage for over 3 months!  That's insane to say the least.  Beat the previous record for consecutive days over flood stage by over 50 days.  Areas down south even more impressive.  

Nice graphic from DVN..

mja9gg.jpg

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^ Well, if you are going to break a record, may as well shatter it.

 

Somebody there is sick and tired of water about right now I bet.

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8 hours ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

This would be a problem..

A13C34EB-E374-47FD-B674-B127C04CA38D.png

to far north with features.....the current  MCS is more south and the upcoming overnight back build tonight  likely is too

central and Southern IL 

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18z NAM didn't even initialize the MCS on the Sim radar and shows no precip in  that area ....and as a result the front is to far north for the position of later storms

WTF?  Is it blind?

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50 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

18z NAM didn't even initialize the MCS on the Sim radar and shows no precip in  that area ....and as a result the front is to far north for the position of later storms

WTF?  Is it blind?

NAM is indeed untrustworthy at this run.   I do wonder how long it will take for the instability gradient to move ne from its present position and we get back into the soupy air mass.

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2 hours ago, janetjanet998 said:

18z NAM didn't even initialize the MCS on the Sim radar and shows no precip in  that area ....and as a result the front is to far north for the position of later storms

WTF?  Is it blind?

I noticed that when it dumped. I'm monitoring weather for a festival here and even though we are not in line for severe, we are riding a thin line between precip and no precip. When I saw how it initialized, all I could do was  :facepalm:

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will the heavy rain ever make it to the I-80/ Chicago metro area in IL with this set up?  

Models totally missing the new MO convection...this of course will slow the NE movement of the front again..blah blah blah etc etc etc 

ESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0478  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
851 AM EDT SAT JUN 22 2019  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...EAST CENTRAL MISSOURRI  
  
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE  
  
VALID 221250Z - 221650Z  
  
SUMMARY...CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF  
EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI TO THE NORTHEAST OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM  
CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  THERE WILL BE TRAINING  
POTENTIAL THIS MORNING IN A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION  
ENHANCING FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL  
MISSOURI.  
  
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST REGIONAL RADARS HAVE SHOWN CONVECTION  
DEVELOPING QUICKLY THIS MORNING TO THE NORTHEAST OF AN OUTFLOW  
BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS NO  
INDICATION OF THIS ACTIVITY IN THE 0000 UTC HI RES GUIDANCE OR THE  
LATEST HRRR RUNS
.  THE ONLY MODELS THAT DOES SHOW SOME INDICATION  
OF THIS ACTIVITY IS THE 0600 UTC NAM CONEST...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO  
WEAK AND SHOWS THE ACTIVITY MOVING QUICKLY SOUTHWARD.    THIS IS  
IN CONTRAST TO RECENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING MUCH SLOWER MOVEMENT.   
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS DOES SHOW A WELL DEFINED AXIS OF SURFACE  
FRONTOGENESIS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE OUTFLOW AND CLOSE TO THE  
AXIS OF OBSERVED HEAVY RAINS.  THIS FRONTOGENESIS AXIS IN THE  
RAP32 PERSISTS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE BECOMING LESS DEFINED.    
GIVEN POOR MODEL DEPICTION, CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE EVOLUTION.   
HOWEVER...GIVEN RECENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWING  
INTENSIFICATION...BELIEVE ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS AS  
MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERRUNS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.   THIS FLASH  
FLOODING THREAT MAY BE ESPECIALLY SO ACROSS AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL  
MISSOURI THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 24  
HOURS.  IN AREAS OF TRAINING...HOURLY RATES OF 1-2"+ POSSIBLE.  

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Here is a trouble spot....on the IL side of the MS river across form  Cape Girardeau

This isn't flooding directly from the river rather then backwater rising for weeks because the local runoff is greater then the outflow to the clogged MS river

even though the river has been slowly falling this water is still slowly rising..a huge lake has formed

locals are saying this is the worse it has ever been...it was also over the road in 1993 but the road has been raised since then....

it is common to have water here but not near this much

This road (Rt 3) closed last night..and another line of storms moving in

Image may contain: sky, ocean, outdoor and water

Image may contain: outdoor and water

 

Image may contain: sky, water and outdoor

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its keeps getting worse here on the protected side of the levee..

 

...more info:  its a combo of seep water under the levee and local run off 

its still rising as it has been for months. up 3 inches just the other day alone

they won't open the levee gates to start draining until the river falls below 30 feet..it still above 40..

Serious flooding continues to affect southern and western Illinois, and on Monday the Division of Aeronautics surveyed the McClure-East Cape Girardeau-Gale area in Alexander County.

https://twitter.com/IDOTDistrict9/status/1143632101604057093

Worst yet to come in Illinois flood fight

https://www.semissourian.com/story/2617492.html

 

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NE IL may be under the gun ....the current storms on the western flank are slower moving/merging  over the extreme SW burbs and most models redevelop storms tonight

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
1153 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2019  
  
DAY 1  
VALID 16Z SUN JUN 30 2019 - 12Z MON JUL 01 2019  
  
..THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY OVER THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE MIDWEST...  
  
16Z UPDATE: CONVECTION IS ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN WI.  
MIXED MODEL SIGNAL WITH THIS EVOLUTION...BUT TEND TO THINK THE MCS  
WILL PERSIST SOUTHWARD, EVENTUALLY SHOWING AT LEAST SOME  
RESTRENGTHENING OVER PORTIONS OF IL AND WESTERN IN. WHILE THIS  
ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO STAY PROGRESSIVE, CELL MERGING IS POSSIBLE  
DURING THE RESTRENGTHENING PHASE, RESULTING IN SOME FLASH FLOOD  
THREAT. REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS MCS OVERNIGHT ALONG  
A NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AGAIN A MIXED  
MODEL SIGNAL WITH THIS, BUT THINK ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL  
EVOLVE FOR SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, AND IF THIS DOES OCCUR,  
THE SETUP WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR TRAINING. THE EXPERIMENTAL FV3  
NSSL APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE ONGOING MCS, AND IT IS  
ONE OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS WITH THIS OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY.  
GIVEN ITS GOOD HANDLING OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY, AND ITS GOOD  
PERFORMANCE OF LATE, THE FV3 NSSL DEPICTION IS CERTAINLY A  
POSSIBILITY. THUS SOME THREAT THAT A MORE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD  
THREAT COULD EVOLVE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WI INTO  
IL. CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT, BUT DEFINITELY WORTH  
MONITORING.  

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