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Spring/Summer 2019 Flooding Thread

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ESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0509  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
319 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2019  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN TO EAST-CENTRAL IL...WEST-CENTRAL TO  
SOUTHWEST IN  
  
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE  
  
VALID 301915Z - 010115Z  
  
SUMMARY...AN EXPANDING AXIS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL BE SETTLING SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WILL BE  
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AS MUCH AS 2  
INCHES/HR. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.  
  
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST GOES-16 IR SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN  
SHOWING AN EXPANSION OF COOLING CONVECTIVE TOPS ACROSS NORTHERN IL  
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A LONG-LIVED MCS THAT HAS DROPPED SOUTH  
OUT OF SOUTHERN WI OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. ADDITIONALLY,  
THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AXIS OF INCREASINGLY  
AGITATED CU ACROSS AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL WHERE THIS IS  
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A FRONTAL ZONE.  
  
THE AIRMASS NEAR THIS BOUNDARY IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES  
OF LOCALLY OVER 4000 J/KG. THERE IS A WARM NOSE UP AROUND 700 MB  
AS SEEN IN A SPECIAL 18Z RAOB SOUNDING FROM KILX, BUT VERY STRONG  
SOLAR INSOLATION/BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS ALLOWING FOR CONVECTIVE  
TEMPS TO BE EXCEEDED WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR A STEADY  
DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN IL.  
  
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THE CONVECTION SHOULD TEND TO DROP  
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF IL, AND ALSO  
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST IN IN CLOSE  
PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AND WITHIN A RATHER NARROW  
CORRIDOR OF STRONG AND UNCAPPED INSTABILITY AROUND THE EAST SIDE  
OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED JUST TO THE WEST OVER NORTHERN MO  
AND MUCH OF IA. THE CONVECTION WILL BE IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH  
PWATS OF 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES, AND A CONSIDERABLE CONTRIBUTION OF  
THIS COMING FROM A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WHERE SURFACE  
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.  
  
THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUPPORTS RAINFALL TOTALS OF AS MUCH AS 2  
INCHES/HR, WITH STORM TOTALS THROUGH 00Z OF AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5  
INCHES. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE WHERE SOME LOCALIZED  
REPEATING OF CELLS OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN THE HEAVY  
SHORT-TERM RAINFALL RATES, AND EXPECTED TOTALS, SOME FLASH  
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.  

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S IL update

 

With seep-water still rising, small Southern Illinois towns face 'critical' flood fight

 

MCCLURE — The Mississippi River reached its highest point weeks ago in deep Southern Illinois, but the waters threatening homes in the communities of McClure and East Cape Girardeau continue to rise.

The river remains in “major” flood stage, and the levees that hold it at bay have been saturated for months. That has allowed massive amounts of water to seep through the embankments and flow into McClure and East Cape.

“It went up an inch here yesterday,” said Jamie Myers, volunteer coordinator for relief efforts in McClure, his hometown. “The situation is critical.”

https://thesouthern.com/news/local/environment/with-seep-water-still-rising-small-southern-illinois-towns-face/article_e761ef42-a33a-5405-ae72-9dfa6869499c.html#utm_campaign=blox&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

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