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E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2019 OBS Thread

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Tornado watch issues for most of the area....

Tornado Watch
Issued: 1:06 AM Apr. 15, 2019 – National Weather Service
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 74 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN DELAWARE THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL DELAWARE

KENT

IN NORTHERN DELAWARE

NEW CASTLE

IN SOUTHERN DELAWARE

SUSSEX

IN MARYLAND THIS WATCH INCLUDES 5 COUNTIES

IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND

CAROLINE              CECIL                 KENT
QUEEN ANNE'S          TALBOT

IN NEW JERSEY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 16 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY

MERCER                MONMOUTH

IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY

HUNTERDON             MIDDLESEX             MORRIS
SOMERSET              SUSSEX                WARREN

IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY

ATLANTIC              BURLINGTON            CAMDEN
CAPE MAY              CUMBERLAND            GLOUCESTER
OCEAN                 SALEM

IN PENNSYLVANIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 10 COUNTIES

IN EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA

BERKS                 LEHIGH                NORTHAMPTON

IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA

CARBON                MONROE

IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA

BUCKS                 CHESTER               DELAWARE
MONTGOMERY            PHILADELPHIA

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ALLENTOWN, ATLANTIC CITY, BETHLEHEM,
BLAIRSTOWN, CAMDEN, CENTREVILLE, CHERRY HILL, CHESTERTOWN,
DENTON, DEPTFORD, DOVER, DOYLESTOWN, EAST BRUNSWICK, EASTON,
EASTON, EDISON, ELKTON, FLEMINGTON, FREEHOLD, GEORGETOWN,
GLASSBORO, HAMMONTON, JIM THORPE, MEDIA, MILLVILLE, MOORESTOWN,
MORRISTOWN, MOUNT HOLLY, NEW BRUNSWICK, NEWTON, NORRISTOWN,
NORTH BRUNSWICK TOWNSHIP, OCEAN CITY, PENNSVILLE, PERTH AMBOY,
PHILADELPHIA, READING, SAYREVILLE, SOMERSET, STROUDSBURG,
TOMS RIVER, TRENTON, WEST CHESTER, AND WILMINGTON.

 

 

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No warnings currently with the line of storms in E.PA moving into W.NJ but its looks to be a strong line of storms nonetheless.

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4 hours ago, RedSky said:

That wicked looking line in Central Pa is going to come a knocking at 3am the witching hour if it survives

Right when I'm getting ready to leave!  Squalls just passed through, very heavy rain and some thunder. Tornado warning issued for Chesco and surrounding counties.  On WU it says it was issued at 3:33, but it looks like it was really issued 2 hours prior. Expires 7am.

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EAS for the Tornado Warning in this area came through @ 3:21.  Did see some lightning and got as high as 0.75"/hr rates, but it's interesting that it remained dry (no rain yesterday either) all the way until almost 3:30 am.  Grabbed a screencap as the line came through and the warnings were flying over my area.  Currently 60 with light rain.

 

radar2-04152019.png

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some cool lightning and definitely picked up a good amount of rain(.85) other than that pretty meh line. only 5 or so storm reports in our CWA.

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Interesting how folks feel the line was “meh” and it came with a tornado warning for Philadelphia, Lol.  For mid April, that is far from “meh”.  Meh for your local perhaps, but the outcome shows SPC was correct 

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3 hours ago, hazwoper said:

Interesting how folks feel the line was “meh” and it came with a tornado warning for Philadelphia, Lol.  For mid April, that is far from “meh”.  Meh for your local perhaps, but the outcome shows SPC was correct 

The whole line wasn't meh.  Was still meh here, though, even if there was a tornado warning a few miles to my west.  However, the SPC was right on and their tornado watch warranted.  

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6 hours ago, The Iceman said:

some cool lightning and definitely picked up a good amount of rain(.85) other than that pretty meh line. only 5 or so storm reports in our CWA.

D220FBB5-1634-4D99-AB02-CF28DC5FBC19.png.572b3a57fb343839f2a0499aeccbe40d.png

 

I don't think this was a "meh" event at all! Severe thunderstorm criteria were reached/damaging winds were reported in locations such as Philadelphia as a relatively stronger portion of the QLCS moved across our CWA, as shown in the storm reports... Given the dynamics of the storm system, the time of year, and the time of day, I think this severe weather event is appreciable at the very least! 

And while most storm reports have likely been recorded by now, I'm sure there'll be some more to come in..

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On 4/15/2019 at 9:26 AM, hazwoper said:

Interesting how folks feel the line was “meh” and it came with a tornado warning for Philadelphia, Lol.  For mid April, that is far from “meh”.  Meh for your local perhaps, but the outcome shows SPC was correct 

10 total storm reports doesn't cover an enhanced risk buddy

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Mt.Holly and Upton ref: severe/heavy rain potential Friday/Saturday.

Mt.Holly:

 

 Active weather begins to take shape Friday as the aforementioned mid- 
  level trough strings out across the mid-Mississippi Valley. The  
  parent surface low looks to slide out of the Great Lakes into  
  Southeastern Canada, trailing a cold front toward the Northeast.  
  Another wave of low pressure looks to develop along the front  
  somewhere over the Ohio Valley Friday, translating northeastward  
  along the front. By Friday evening, another stronger surface low  
  pressure center should develop across the southern Appalachians, and  
  begin shifting northeast toward our area. This looks to pull  
  relatively deep moisture across the area, thus leading to  
  potentially heavy rainfall. PWAT values from 1-2 inches is  
  forecast as well. The NAM suggests some instability could creep  
  into the region, especially over portions of Delmarva, thus  
  thunderstorms are also possible. The severe potential exists,  
  but will ultimately depend on the amount of instability that  
  develops. Shear looks a little more certain however, given the  
  structure of the system and 850 mb southerly flow ahead of the  
  parent trough. Deep vertical mixing should develop as WAA takes  
  shape across the area, thus it will likely be windy Friday with  
  gusts of 30-40 mph possible. Mild Friday as the warm front  
  clears the area, thus widespread 70s are likely every where,  
  with the exception of the southern Poconos, where upper 60s will 
  be found. 
   
  Scattered showers are likely through the weekend as the main surface  
  low slowly works its way northeastward across the region. Some  
  breaks in the rain will occur, thus it does not look to be a  
  complete washout. Highs in near 70 Saturday and the mid 60s Sunday.  
   
  Weak high pressure builds into the area Monday, leading to a  
  seasonable and dry day. A weak cold front tries to slide southward  
  out of the Great Lakes into Monday night, thus scattered  
  showers are possible Monday night into Tuesday. Highs look to  
  sit in the low 70s across the area both Monday and Tuesday, with 
  upper 60s across the higher terrain to the north.  
   
  && 

Upton:

 

Rain chances will then increase again on Friday when the cold front
approaches from the west. Precipitable water values will range
between 1 to 2 inches as tropical moisture is advected into the
region. This will lead to a period of moderate and possibly even
heavy rain late Friday night into Saturday. There is also a
threat of localized flooding which will need to be watched.

Models showing a dry slot will cut off rain Saturday afternoon,
however, with the upper low remaining in the vicinity, have kept
PoPs in the forecast through Sunday.

High pressure looks to make a brief return on Monday with the next
cold front arriving as early as Monday night into Tuesday.

Temperatures will remain above normal through the period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through Thursday night.

A slow moving frontal system will bring the potential for hydrologic
impacts Friday into Saturday. Widespread minor urban and poor
drainage flooding is possible, with a chance of flash flooding,
especially in any heavier bands of rain. Uncertainty still remains
with the exact location and timing of the heaviest rain.

Minor flooding is expected on the Lower CT River by
tonight/Wednesday due to runoff from recent rainfall events and from
upstream snow melt in VT and NH. This flooding could continue
through late week.

&&

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Made a fast transition from winter not wanting to let go to spring 10 days ago, also the mostly under performing temperature thing is over as well. Get ready to roast!

And of course the always over performing rain pattern from last July until early March is also on hiatus and couldn't be happier with it.

 

 

 

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Flash Flood Watch in effect here from late Friday night thru Saturday afternoon for 1-2" of rain with locally higher amounts up to 3"

Current temp 65

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