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E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2019 OBS Thread

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3 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Anyone up in the Kutztown --> Easton area around?  Looks like there are spotter reports of 0.70" hail up there.  It's currently 73 here in NW Philly and mostly cloudy with breaks of sun.

 

radar-zoom2-04092019.png

I am in the Bethlehem area.  No hail here.  The back door front is actually draped north to south over Bethlehem at this hour.  There is a 15 temperature difference across the front.  Weather Underground data shows this well.

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9 hours ago, Tatamy said:

I am in the Bethlehem area.  No hail here.  The back door front is actually draped north to south over Bethlehem at this hour.  There is a 15 temperature difference across the front.  Weather Underground data shows this well.

Thanks!  I took a look at Mt. Holly's LSRs and saw where the reports were coming from -

Quote
NWUS51 KPHI 100032
 LSRPHI
 
 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
 832 PM EDT TUE APR 9 2019
 
 ..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
 ..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
             ..REMARKS..
 
 0523 PM     HAIL             UPPER BLACK EDDY        40.57N 75.10W
 04/09/2019  M0.70 INCH       BUCKS              PA   TRAINED SPOTTER  
 
             DIME SIZE HAIL. 
 
 0400 PM     HAIL             ALBRIGHTSVILLE          41.01N 75.57W
 04/09/2019  M0.25 INCH       CARBON             PA   PUBLIC           
 
             PEA SIZE HAIL. 
 
 0508 PM     HAIL             ZIONSVILLE              40.48N 75.51W
 04/09/2019  M0.25 INCH       LEHIGH             PA   PUBLIC           
 
             PEA SIZE HAIL. 
 
 0505 PM     HAIL             EMMAUS                  40.53N 75.49W
 04/09/2019  M0.70 INCH       LEHIGH             PA   TRAINED SPOTTER  
 
             DIME SIZE HAIL. 
 
 0503 PM     HAIL             MACUNGIE                40.52N 75.56W
 04/09/2019  E0.70 INCH       LEHIGH             PA   PUBLIC           
 
             HAIL TO AROUND THE SIZE OF DIMES. 
 
 0420 PM     HAIL             CATASAUQUA              40.65N 75.47W
 04/09/2019  M0.70 INCH       LEHIGH             PA   TRAINED SPOTTER  
 
             DIME SIZE HAIL. 
 
 0410 PM     HAIL             NORTH WHITEHALL TWP     40.69N 75.59W
 04/09/2019  M0.70 INCH       LEHIGH             PA   TRAINED SPOTTER  
 
             DIME SIZE HAIL. 
 
 0610 PM     HAIL             PENNINGTON              40.33N 74.79W
 04/09/2019  M0.70 INCH       MERCER             NJ   PUBLIC           
 
             DIME SIZE HAIL. 
 
 0423 PM     HAIL             SCIOTA                  40.93N 75.32W
 04/09/2019  M0.25 INCH       MONROE             PA   PUBLIC           
 
             PEA SIZE HAIL. 
 
 0420 PM     HAIL             BETHLEHEM TWP           40.66N 75.33W
 04/09/2019  M0.25 INCH       NORTHAMPTON        PA   TRAINED SPOTTER  
 
             PEA SIZE HAIL. 
 
 0444 PM     HAIL             STILLWATER TWP          41.06N 74.86W
 04/09/2019  M0.25 INCH       SUSSEX             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER  
 
             PEA SIZE HAIL. 
 
 0505 PM     HAIL             PHILLIPSBURG            40.69N 75.20W
 04/09/2019  M0.25 INCH       WARREN             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER  
 
             PEA SIZE HAIL. 
 
 
 &&
 
 $$
 
 GORSE

Meanwhile I literally got fringed by any rain, let alone a storm, by what had to be about a mile or less.  Radar showed some of the southern part of a cluster just overhead here and the clouds were there, but the stuff moved on towards the southeast as the line broke up (am guessing the radar angle distorted the actual location a bit too) and I had nada. :huh:  It wasn't until after 8pm when the cooler air finally started advecting in post-frontal passage.

Anyway, currently 50 and clear.  ETA - it did make it up to 73 as a high here on Tuesday.

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next few weeks looks active rain wise with possible some severe threats scattered in there. Main story will be the moisture... I expect as we get closer these totals may increase especially with the weekend system.. really good moisture flow from the gulf, i wouldn't be surprised to see widespread 1-2" rains with more possible if convection materializes. Then we have several systems that are similar afterwards. could see some flooding issues if the pattern comes to fruition.

 

gfs_apcpn_us_52.png

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I hate to say it but its been bone dry now for like 3 plus weeks.  We could use some rain.  Not 2" but 1" over the weekend would be good.

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Mt.Holly and Upton ref Friday/Saturday & Sunday/Monday.

 

Mt.Holly:

 

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... 
  A warm front will gradually track north during Friday and enter at  
  least the southern parts of our area. Despite the strengthening  
  southerly low-level flow, the combination of the time of year and  
  the parent surface low tracking so far to our west, it is difficult  
  for these warm fronts to push north. At the moment, we have it  
  making it into Delmarva where temperatures are the warmest. Also  
  potentially slowing its northward progression is that a strong  
  inversion may tend to hold low clouds in longer farther north. 
   
  Portions of the area should start off the day with some fog and  
  drizzle. As the boundary layer warms, some improvement should take  
  place overall, however some showers will start to arrive from the  
  west by late afternoon. PoPs are in the higher chance range in the  
  afternoon across the western areas, then decrease eastward.  
   
  Temperatures will be affected by the warm front, and instead of a  
  gradual transition from north to south it could be more abrupt then  
  depicted. As of now we have highs in the upper 50s across our  
  northern zones and mid 70s south. 
   
  Southerly winds will increase in the afternoon with gusts up to 30  
  mph, especially south of the warm front as deeper mixing will occur  
  where the boundary layer is warmer.  
   
  && 
   
  .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... 
  Friday night through Sunday... 
   
  Low pressure will continue to advance northward through Ontario and  
  Quebec Friday night dragging a cold front eastward into eastern PA.  
  Expect widespread showers with at least some embedded storms to move  
  eastward into the CWA through Friday evening and continue overnight.  
  We have growing concerns that there could be some very heavy  
  rainfall as this occurs...especially over eastern PA. Forecast  
  models depicting several hundred j/kg of elevated CAPE with PWATS  
  around 1.5 inches which is above the 90th percentile for this time  
  of year. There will also be some right jet entrance dynamics at play  
  and with flow oriented parallel to front this will be favorable for  
  a training pattern of showers/storms. So this all said, expect at  
  least locally heavy rainfall with the potential for urban and small  
  stream type flooding.  
   
  Aformentioned front gets hung up over the area Saturday.  
  However as shortwave energy passes off to the east there won`t  
  be any real forcing at play. Also, mid levels will tend to dry  
  out somewhat from north to south. For this reason, expect Friday 
  night`s showers/storms to be quickly moving out early Saturday  
  morning with only some scattered to isolated showers/storms  
  developing in the afternoon, mainly S/E of the I-95 corridor.  
   
  Tricky forecast for Saturday night and Sunday as one low departs  
  over eastern Canada while the next one takes shape and moves from  
  Texas north and east into the Ohio Valley. The challenge will be  
  placement of the associated frontal boundary during this period with  
  models diverging on these details. The NAM pushes the front south of  
  the area through Saturday night and keeps it south through Sunday  
  which would bring mainly dry weather during this period. Meanwhile,  
  the GFS keeps front hung up over the area Saturday night and  
  then lifts it north of us as a warm front Sunday. This solution  
  would tend to keep at least scattered showers/storms around  
  during this period...especially for overnight Saturday night  
  and again for Sunday afternoon. GEM Global and ECMWF depict  
  solutions between the two extremes of the NAM and GFS. Given the 
  uncertainty, we didn`t stray too far from the previous forecast 
  and generally keep low chances for showers in the forecast  
  Saturday night with POPs slowly ramping up through Sunday. Best  
  chance for more widespread showers/storms looks to be late  
  Sunday as daytime heating is maximized.  
   
  Sunday night through Thursday... 
   
  The main concern during this period will be large, moisture laden  
  low pressure system as it moves from Ohio late Sunday north and east  
  across PA and upstate NY reaching eastern New England by late  
  Monday. This will push a strong cold front across the area Sunday  
  night into early Monday that may bring multiple hazardous weather  
  threats. In terms of the details, showers and storms look to become  
  more organized and widespread across the area through Sunday evening  
  as cold front approaches. Early indications are deep layer shear  
  could be in the 50-70 knot range with PWATS approaching 1.7 inches  
  and ML Capes of a least a few hundred j/kg....this all occuring with  
  strong deep layer forcing as low deepens and upper level trough  
  becomes negatively tilted. Thus, think both heavy rainfall along  
  with severe weather may be a concern. Again, this is still several  
  days away and a lot can change between now and then with details  
  that still need to be ironed out but indications are this could be  
  an impactful system. Limiting factor is timing...overnight timing of  
  frontal passage generally not as favorable for severe weather due to  
  lack of heating.  
   
  Rain/showers continue into Monday morning with the  
  steadiest/heaviest precip likely moving out by midday behind the  
  cold front. Gusty and drier conditions should follow for the  
  afternoon.  

Upton:

 

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Strong low pressure over the Plains will slowly lift north into the
Great Lakes tonight into Friday. A warm front will develop ahead of
this system and slowly approach from the S and W during the day on
Friday. As of now, it looks like the front will remain to the west
during the day before lifting through at night. This will put the
region in the warm sector with rain chances increasing ahead of the
front.  With some elevated instability, have added a slight chance
of thunder to the forecast for the first half of the night.

Temperatures on Friday will be in the lower 60s in and around NYC
and in the 50s elsewhere. However, these temperatures will be
dependent on the slow movement of the warm front. Southerly winds
increase tomorrow afternoon with gusts up to 25 mph.

Temperatures Friday night are not expected to fall much, staying in
the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Intense closed low over the central plains today will shear ne
into northern stream through southern Ontario and then into
northern Quebec this weekend. At the surface, a weak frontal
boundary pushes se of the region late Friday Night into
Saturday morning. With upper energy still well off to the NW and
deep SW flow aligned with the front, the front and associated
showers/cloud cover could be slower to clear than progged by the
models. This make for a challenging temp forecast for Saturday.
With afternoon clearing, temps could soar well into the 70s to
around 80 degrees across NYC, NE NJ, Lower Hud and interior SW
CT. For now have tempered expectations to mid 70s in these
areas to lower 60s immediate S coast with potential for high
and mid deck to remain.

A cold front then slips south through the area Saturday
Night. This boundary then likely begins to work north from the
Mid- Atlantic as a warm front late Sunday ahead of the next
more intense low pressure system, but still uncertainty on how
quickly this front moves north with model spread in how quickly
southerly llj works north towards the region. Leaning towards a
slower northward progress of the front, likely not moving north
until late Sunday night.

Meanwhile, PAC energy coming into the west coast today will dig
the next trough towards the US Mexico border this weekend, with
closed upper low formation. Models in good agreement with this
upper low lifting ne towards the Great Lakes Sun Night into
Monday, with associated shortwave energy approaching the region
Monday and swinging through Monday Night into Tuesday. The
resultant strong low pressure system will lift into the Ohio
Valley Sunday and the eastern Great Lakes and Adirondacks
Monday, with triple pt low moving near the region. Potential
for a 6 to 12 hr period of moderate to heavy rain showers with
embedded thunder during the Sunday Night to Monday morning period
in response to deep layered lift of a +3-4 std pwat subtropical
moisture plume ahead of the approaching frontal system.
Gradually drying but breezy conditions Monday Night into
Tuesday in wake of frontal system as cyclonic flow gradually
relents.

Thereafter, general agreement on upper ridging gradually
building into the northeast mid to late next week ahead of the
next longitudinally digging trough developing and then sliding
east from the Central US. This setup would signal an
increasingly warm and humid airmass over the region during the
mid to late week as a PAC and then subtropical flow setup, but
as is typical in the early Spring in the NE US, indications are
that Canadian Maritime high pressure will exert its influence on
the region Wed and Thu with a backdoor cold front pressing
south or warm front developing to the south. Temps for the mid
to late week appear seasonable at this time. Potential for some
stratus and light rain/drizzle development Wed/Thu depending on
location of a developing warm front and weak shortwaves energies
moving through the flow.

&&

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Looks like the models (NAM/GFS) have been trending a bit wetter for today (Friday) into Saturday. Mt.Holly also was concerned for heavy rain especially Friday night into Saturday morning with thunderstorms also possible. Looks like more heavy rain/storms will be possible later Sunday, Sunday night and into the first half of Monday.

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NAM has almost 2 inches of rain for parts of the area tonight.

 

namconus_apcpn_neus_12.png

 

GFS fairly robust as well

 

gfs_apcpn_neus_6.png

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Even with how dry the last 3 weeks have been, the soil is still pretty moist around here. My garden hasn't really needed watering at all. 

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Temps have really shot up so far today.  Up to 72 already from a low of 46 this morning and with a high of only 57 yesterday.  Was completely fringed by Tuesday's storm getting no measurable (not even any drizzle) so it's been an unusual streak in a very wet year of precip every few days (got less than 0.50" total from 2 systems since 4/5).  Trying to sneak a grilling session in this afternoon before the progged rains come though... :thumbsup:

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1 hour ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Temps have really shot up so far today.  Up to 72 already from a low of 46 this morning and with a high of only 57 yesterday.  Was completely fringed by Tuesday's storm getting no measurable (not even any drizzle) so it's been an unusual streak in a very wet year of precip every few days (got less than 0.50" total from 2 systems since 4/5).  Trying to sneak a grilling session in this afternoon before the progged rains come though... :thumbsup:

72F here as well. As soon as the sun popped out temps shot up. Yesterday felt like Fall...today definitely feels like Spring (maybe a little warmer) 

Yeah, some rain would be welcomed.

 

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Was able to get some grilling in and grill cooled enough to cover just as some droplets started to fall.  It has been a bit hit or miss the past hour or so however and it is just now enough to wet the sidewalk.  I believe this is just a precursor to later heavier rain though.  Currently 70 and a little humid (dews in the mid-50s) with some sprinkles and light rain.

radar4-04122019.png

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Mt.Holly and Upton ref tonight/tomorrow and Sunday/Monday.

Mt.Holly:

 

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... 
   
  330 PM...A warm front associated with a deep low across the 
  Great Lakes is currently moving north through the area with a 
  trailing cold front well to the west over the Ohio Valley. Some 
  showers associated with weak shortwave energy currently moving 
  across portions of eastern PA and the Delmarva and expect these 
  to affect the I-95 corridor within the next couple hours as  
  they move east. However no thunder with this as the instability  
  remains off to the south and west.  
   
  Heading into this evening, above mentioned area of showers will 
  continue to affect the area as it moves east across NJ. Forecast 
  models generally have these diminishing with time however 
  guidance has not been handling this too well so far and this 
  warranted raising POPs into early this evening. Following this 
  first round of showers there should be a bit of a lull before 
  heavier showers and storms, now currently over western PA 
  southward into Virginia, move in by the late evening and 
  overnight. We have concerns for heavy rainfall with this second 
  round of showers and embedded storms. PWATs should rise to 1.5 
  inches in the warm sector as moisture is drawn northward with a 
  few hundred j/kg of elevated CAPE being shown by models. Also, 
  the south/east progression of the front should slow down with 
  the mean flow running nearly parallel to it. So for these 
  reasons not only will heavy rainfall be a concern but also the 
  potential for training of heavier shower/storms in a SW to NE 
  orientation. So this all said, urban and and small stream type  
  flooding looks to still be a threat overnight as localized  
  rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches will be possible within just a  
  few hours. Even some potential for localized flash flooding as  
  WPC has added parts of eastern PA into a marginal excessive  
  rainfall threat. Highest threat area looks to be along and N/W  
  of the I-95 corridor. Temperatures will remain quite mild  
  overnight and even a bit humid in the warm sector as lows will  
  be mostly in the upper 50s to low 60s.  
   
  && 
   
  .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... 
   
  Weak front oriented SW to NE will be draped across eastern PA to 
  start the day with ongoing showers ahead of it along and S/E of 
  the I-95 corridor. Some of these may continue to be heavy. The 
  good news is showers and any left over storms will taper off 
  through the morning from west to east with the passage of 
  shortwave energy aloft. Beyond this time weak ridging aloft will 
  temporarily move in for the afternoon with some mid level 
  drying also occuring. For this reason expect threat for showers 
  to continue diminishing in the afternoon with any activity  
  being isolated over the southern Delmarva. Otherwise, some sun  
  develops with most areas once again seeing highs in the 70s as  
  front dissipates over the area.  
   
  && 
   
  .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... 
   
  The highlight of the long term forecast will be the strong storm  
  system expected to affect the east coast Sunday night into Monday  
  morning. 
   
  The cold front that will stall across the southern portion of the  
  forecast area is expected to lift back northward as a warm front  
  overnight Saturday as an area of low pressure moves across the  
  Midwest region, and continue to slowly lift across the area during  
  the day Sunday. This may be a slow process with how fast this front  
  lifts across the area, but with increasing moisture and lift  
  associate with several short waves riding over the frontal boundary,  
  there will be a chance of showers Saturday night through Sunday.  
   
  As mentioned before, the main concern with the forecast is overnight  
  Sunday into Monday morning. As the low pressure moves into the  
  northeastern states overnight Sunday, a secondary warm front may  
  move across the area, before a cold front follows behind it. As the  
  warm front lifts across the area, PW values increase across the area  
  to 1.50-1.75 inches. Enhanced lift associated with additional short  
  waves/vorticity impulses overriding the warm front will likely lead  
  to a period of moderate to heavy rainfall. There is not a  
  significant amount of instability forecast at this time, however,  
  there could be enough to help lead to areas of convection, which may  
  lead to additional enhancement of heavy rainfall. At least poor  
  drainage flooding is possible with any heavy rainfall. If any  
  thunderstorms do develop, there could also produce some strong/gusty  
  winds as well. 
   
  There is also a non-zero severe weather threat with any  
  stronger/deeper convection that develops late Sunday night and early  
  Monday morning just ahead of the cold front. Lower and upper level  
  kinematics will be supportive of strong storms, if (and that is a  
  big if), enough instability is available ahead of the front. Low  
  level (boundary layer) thermodynamics appear to be the biggest  
  question mark at this point for any severe potential. This will need  
  to be monitored in future forecast updates.

Upton:

 

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A warm front lifts north of the Lower Hud Valley and Southern
CT this evening. Breezy southerly winds likely in its wake and
ahead of approaching frontal system for NYC metro/LI/CT late
this afternoon into tonight.

Deep closed low approaching Lake Superior this evening will
move east northeast through southern Ontario and then into
northern Quebec this weekend. Ahead of it, an axis of southern
stream shortwave energy will lift through the region tonight,
with a weak frontal boundary pushing into the region tonight and
then southeast late tonight into Saturday morning. Deep layered
lift of a +2-3 std PWAT subtropical moisture plume, with
marginal elevated instability, converging ahead of a an
approaching surface trough, will bring a band of heavy rain and
perhaps a few embedded tstms to the region tonight. Operational
and high- res guidance indicating a likely 1/2 to 1 inches of
rain for most of the region, with potentially 1 to 1 1/2 inches,
most falling in 6 hours. Heaviest period of rainfall appears to
translate from west to east between 11pm and 6am. See Hydrology
section for associated impacts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Deep closed low continues to move east northeast through Quebec
and into the Canadian maritimes this weekend. At the surface,
the frontal boundary pushes se of the region Saturday morning.
With upper energy still well off to the NW and deep SW flow
aligned with the front, the showers could be stubborn to push
east of LI/CT in the morning, and even moreso the mid cloud
deck through the afternoon. This make for a challenging temp
forecast for Saturday. With afternoon clearing, temps could soar
well into the 70s to around 80 degrees across NE NJ, Lower Hud
and interior SW CT. Across se portions of the region and south
coastal areas, temps will likely remain in the lower 60s with
cloud cover and onshore component to flow.

A cold front then slips south through the area Saturday Night,
with Canadian maritimes airmass working into the region. A
strong low-level inversion and saturation under it could result
in some stratus formation Sat Night. If stratus doesn`t form
radiative cooling could lead to locally dense fog fomation.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Warm front remains to the south of us for probably most of the
daytime on Sunday as the parent low remains well off to the west and
a LLJ doesn`t really get going here until the evening hours. Have
therefore sided closer to the cooler MET MOS guidance on an easterly
wind flow. Can`t rule out a shower at any point in the day, but
thinking is that better chances would occur in the afternoon with
the approach of stronger isentropic lift ahead of the warm front.

Low pressure center then heads from the eastern Great Lakes towards
the Northeast. This, along with a strengthening LLJ shifting in over
here, allows the warm front to move through. Deepening moisture,
convergence and lift will lead to a widespread rainfall across the
area. Elevated instability and wind shear allow for a chance of
strong thunderstorms, and with PWATs increasing to 1.5 inches - near
the record daily max for this time of year, rainfall will be
moderate to potentially locally heavy. Flash flooding potential at
this point is somewhat uncertain. Part of this depends on how much
rain we`ll get tonight into Saturday. Even without tonight`s
rainfall there`s potential for at least widespread minor flooding.
Rising dewpoints advecting over the cold area waters could aid in
fog development, especially in the vicinity of the warm front.

As the storm center moves into New England on Monday, its cold front
passes through sometime in the morning to midday hours with rain
chances dropping off behind its passage. Instability and shear ahead
of the cold front maintain a chance of strong thunderstorms.
Sufficient moisture and shortwave lift then remain during the rest
of the day to continue the threat of additional showers.

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0.46" of rain since last evening brings our MTD total to 0.85" which is 0.73" below normal. YTD rainfall is at 13.16" which is 0.22" above normal. It appears we are finished for snowfall for the season. Ending with 35.1" of snow for the 2018/19 Season which is 1.5" below our seasonal norm of 36.6" (1983-Present)

SICHi.20190413_101840986.jpg

Backyard.20190413_101825.jpg

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