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MAR 9th severe weather


janetjanet998
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 16  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
215 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2019  
  
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF   
  PARTS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN ALABAMA  
  NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI  
  MIDDLE TENNESSEE  
  
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 215 PM UNTIL  
  900 PM CST.  
  
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...  
  SEVERAL TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES  
    POSSIBLE  
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY  
  SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE  
  
SUMMARY...COMPLEX STORM EVOLUTION CONTINUES, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR  
SUPERCELLS TO EMERGE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE CORRIDOR FROM  
MIDDLE TENNESSEE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA.  THE STORM ENVIRONMENT  
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS THROUGH MID-LATE EVENING.   
A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES, DAMAGING WINDS, AND ISOLATED LARGE  
HAIL WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.  
  

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I see  MEG still hasn't  cleared up confusing updates after all these years ( I think this is the office I remember always doing this..maybe not)

The update says SEVERE THUNDERSTORM   PRODUCING A TORNADO not "capable of" but the source says RADAR INDICATED ROTATION

 

so is there a TOG or not?

 

     
AT 238 PM CST, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM  
PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF POCAHONTAS, OR  
13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BIG HILL POND STATE PARK, MOVING NORTHEAST AT  
40 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
  
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. 


 
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25 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

Cell west of ST Louis starting to show some rotation 

ULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO  
255 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2019  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A  
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHWESTERN ST. CHARLES COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...  
  NORTHWESTERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...  
  SOUTHEASTERN WARREN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...  
  
* UNTIL 345 PM CST.  
  
* AT 255 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR INNSBROOK,  
  MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
  
  IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES.  
  
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
  O'FALLON, ST. CHARLES, ST. PETERS, CHESTERFIELD, WILDWOOD, BALLWIN,  
  WENTZVILLE, MARYLAND HEIGHTS, HAZELWOOD, MANCHESTER, CREVE COEUR,  
  LAKE ST. LOUIS, BRIDGETON, DARDENNE PRAIRIE, TOWN AND COUNTRY,  
  ELLISVILLE, DES PERES, WARRENTON, WELDON SPRING AND WRIGHT CITY.  
  

  
  
LAT...LON 3882 9110 3886 9044 3860 9046 3861 9073  
      3864 9073 3861 9076 3863 9112  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 274DEG 42KT 3871 9099   
  
TORNADO...POSSIBLE  
HAIL...0.75IN  
WIND...60MPH  

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1 minute ago, janetjanet998 said:

the cells in MS look like trouble

Yeah that Cell NW of Yazoo city is getting into a progressively better environment as it organizes, and the cell NE of Greenwood is taking on a more discrete structure as it gets into a highly shear environment with some clearing out ahead.

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 Mesoscale Discussion 0174
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0317 PM CST Sat Mar 09 2019

   Areas affected...southern Illinois and vicinity

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 092117Z - 092315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms are possible this
   afternoon, with damaging wind or perhaps a tornado.

   DISCUSSION...A warm front continues to move northward across the St.
   Louis area and into southern Illinois, with substantial clearing
   allowing for additional heating as well. Surface analysis shows mid
   50s F dewpoints surging northward, with 2hr pressure falls up to 6
   mb. An axis of near-60 F dewpoints exists over extreme southern
   Illinois southward into Arkansas as of 21Z.

   A small cluster of thunderstorms is currently moving toward the St. 
   Louis area with indications of strong wind gusts. This is very near
   the surface low/upper vort track, and is coincident with strong
   cooling aloft.

   A small window of opportunity might exist for at least isolated
   severe storms ahead of the surface low and near the warm front.
   Forecast soundings indicate instability is weak, but may briefly
   increase enough to support low-topped supercells. Wind shear
   profiles are very strong, and should a supercell form, a tornado
   threat would naturally exist.

   ..Jewell/Thompson.. 03/09/2019
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underperformed so far today,,especially up north

but finally two cells in MS in "clearer" air and look less "grungy"

 
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
510 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2019  
  
MSC019-097-100000-  
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0016.000000T0000Z-190310T0000Z/  
CHOCTAW MS-MONTGOMERY MS-  
510 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2019  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST FOR CHOCTAW  
AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES...  
          
AT 509 PM CST, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER POPLAR CREEK, OR  
14 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WINONA, MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
  

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still down

O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0016.000000T0000Z-190310T0000Z/  
CHOCTAW MS-  
517 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2019  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST FOR CENTRAL  
CHOCTAW COUNTY...  
          
AT 517 PM CST, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR POPLAR CREEK, OR  
19 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WINONA, MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.  
  
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
  

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