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Severe storms 3-9/12


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Excitement is understandable WRT midweek system, but I'm gonna argue that expectation should definitely be quite low. The biggest reason I say this is due to the degree of forcing we'll likely see. Both Euro and GFS (up until this morning's GFS) blow up an insta-MCS/QLCS.. This makes sense given the sheer degree of forcing we will see.

 

A supercell event can still happen, but it would require a few changes to the progs. Lots of changes will happen as there are a *number* of interactions yet to play out with this particular shortwave, including phasing interactions, that are evident looking into the Pacific.

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I'm now getting a bit more intrigued about the storms that should take place overnight from tonight into tomorrow morning.  SPC put up a risk for significant hail (15% hatched) from the DFW Metroplex to the I-40 corridor in eastern Oklahoma, and a 5% tornado risk NE of DFW.  Models are showing significant VBV for DFW/North Texas in particular, though.  But it seems that the tornado risk should be highest tomorrow (3/8) over the Mississippi Valley in the Mid-South region per SPC's issuance of a Day 2 Enhanced risk there (in the "maximum risk by hazard" section of their Day 2 write-up SPC is preliminarily going with 10% hatched).

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7 hours ago, BrandonC_TX said:

I'm now getting a bit more intrigued about the storms that should take place overnight from tonight into tomorrow morning.  SPC put up a risk for significant hail (15% hatched) from the DFW Metroplex to the I-40 corridor in eastern Oklahoma, and a 5% tornado risk NE of DFW.  Models are showing significant VBV for DFW/North Texas in particular, though.  But it seems that the tornado risk should be highest tomorrow (3/8) over the Mississippi Valley in the Mid-South region per SPC's issuance of a Day 2 Enhanced risk there (in the "maximum risk by hazard" section of their Day 2 write-up SPC is preliminarily going with 10% hatched).

12Z 3K NAM spitting out some robust UH tracks over central OK around 09Z overnight. Not sure if they'd be surface-based but should be at least a hail threat.

For later Saturday on the 12Z GFS...woof, at 500 mb that trough really has the look of one that produces tornadoes, but according to it and other models the instability just isn't going to be there except across a small part of the Deep South well removed from the best dynamics and wind profiles.

Save these for May please (although systems like this CAN get it done in mid-March or even earlier - 3/13/90, 3/12/06, 3/15/16, 2/28/17 etc - this doesn't look like it's going to be one of those times).

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11 minutes ago, yoda said:

KLUB just issued a STW for winds up to 70mph for Parmer and Western Castro counties 

Wow.  There's very little (if any) instability there, so it looks like a line of showers with severe wind gusts.  There must be strong winds just above the surface or something... I'm not sure, but I believe that's a sign of fairly dynamic storm system.

EDIT: It seems like SPC Mesoanalysis is showing around 250 J/kg of MLCAPE there.

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Severe Weather Statement.        National Weather Service Lubbock TX 111 AM CST SAT MAR 9 2019

TXC069-369-090745- /O.CON.KLUB.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190309T0745Z/ Parmer TX-Castro TX- 111 AM CST SAT MAR 9 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 AM CST FOR PARMER AND WESTERN CASTRO COUNTIES...

At 109 AM CST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Lazbuddie to Easter, moving east at 55 mph. At 1255 AM, a wind gust to 60 mph was measured near Friona.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar and mesonet indicated.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile homes...roofs and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include... Dimmitt, Friona, Bovina, Summerfield, Lazbuddie and Easter.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... These storms are likely producing widespread wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows.

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Severe Thunderstorm Warning

TXC069-189-279-437-090830-

/O.NEW.KLUB.SV.W.0002.190309T0730Z-190309T0830Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

National Weather Service Lubbock TX

130 AM CST SAT MAR 9 2019

The National Weather Service in Lubbock Texas has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...

Castro County in the Panhandle of Texas... Hale County in northwestern Texas... Swisher County in the Panhandle of Texas... Lamb County in northwestern Texas...

* Until 230 AM CST.

* At 129 AM CST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 3 miles south of Sudan, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs...siding and trees.

* Locations impacted include... Plainview, Tulia, Dimmitt, Hale Center, Olton and Hart.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms have a history of producing severe wind gusts. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows! 

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Low trust level with those storms impacting D/FW later this morning and Northeast Texas a bit after that. Latest HRRR runs along with the 0Z 3KMNAM both had tornado soundings galore with strong convection. Hopefully, it'll remain elevated, but even that will cause some hail issues given the impressive lapse rates and instability aloft. 

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37 minutes ago, David Reimer said:

Low trust level with those storms impacting D/FW later this morning and Northeast Texas a bit after that. Latest HRRR runs along with the 0Z 3KMNAM both had tornado soundings galore with strong convection. Hopefully, it'll remain elevated, but even that will cause some hail issues given the impressive lapse rates and instability aloft. 

7z HRRR is trying to bring a huge supercell across the DFW area at 12z this morning, and the 6z run shows what appears to be some fairly potent storms entering DFW at 11z.  Since the 5z HRRR run that model has been ramping up the threat for DFW in particular it seems.  There is plenty of surface-based instability around (around 1500 J/kg) so I guess there is always the chance that something could go surface-based, but I hope the storms do stay elevated for obvious reasons if they even try to get as intense as the HRRR runs are showing.

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Still thinking about those storms east of Abilene.  They look to be currently in an area where they would stay elevated, but it seems that per the SPC Mesoanalysis they could be moving into an area with some surface-based instability.  I'm wondering if they are about to intensify and become severe, especially if they can become surface-based.  These are fast-movers (forward speeds of 60+ mph in places) per the significant weather advisories so we should find out soon.

EDIT: and SPC has just put up a new mesoscale discussion saying that a watch is likely from west of DFW into SE OK, SW AR, and NW LA.  It suggests that the storms might stay elevated in the western part of the MD area, but may become surface-based later on.

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Got a little bit of pea sized hail in far north Dallas with the second storm. 4th year in a row having seen hail in the spring. Collin County seems to have been slammed *again*

EDIT: Got a little more small hail with the line that came through

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The GFS, NAM, and Euro all have heavy precipitation in most of NM on 3/12 now, and we'll likely see a fair amount of severe weather with that event. Hail, tornadoes, snow, strong winds, and heavy rains all look pretty likely. I still think we'll find a way to go over to snow in the city, but the local NWS thinks the snow levels will only get down to 6,500 or so on Tuesday with the Pacific cold front. Of course, they had us only falling to 35F last night and it reached 30F this morning. My hunch is we end late Tuesday/early Wednesday as a heavy wet snow right around freezing down to 5,000 feet, at least in the northern part of the state, but we'll see. Snow level at 6,500 feet implies mid-30s at 5,000 typically.

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Snow pretty far south in the mountains, but not quite to El Paso - pretty impressive system for mid-March though. I'm actually think I have a shot at hail with some of the rain on Monday. This looks like a more wide spread outbreak than yesterday, based on storm strength and track mostly.

Nxr7J3M.png

 

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