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Minnesota_storms

March 9-11 Winter Storm

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Well looks like I’ll be shoveling this weekend. :D

In all seriousness though really glad my home was recently built (2010) with modern standards and codes. My neighborhood is mostly homes from 1910-1930 and the ice dam issue is becoming extreme. Another heavy wet snow could cause structural issues for some people. 

211C1CBB-C6B0-4AD3-A8C2-FB97D4C2E9A7.jpeg

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17 hours ago, Minnesota_storms said:

NAM with heavy totals and doesn't even have the snow ending.

namconus_asnow_ncus_29.png

namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_52.png

This time frame is when the NAM is at it's best. They should push it out to 100hrs for even more accuracy

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Winter Storm Warning hoisted as expected here. Gonna be a nail biter regarding precip type at the onset for the metro. 12Z 3K NAM wants to bring the warm nose up this way which could cut into totals and make the snow even heavier and more water loaded.

 

I Wonder if our snow depth will actually decrease if we get 8” of 7-1 snow. How much could it compact things? 

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54 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Winter Storm Warning hoisted as expected here. Gonna be a nail biter regarding precip type at the onset for the metro. 12Z 3K NAM wants to bring the warm nose up this way which could cut into totals and make the snow even heavier and more water loaded.

 

I Wonder if our snow depth will actually decrease if we get 8” of 7-1 snow. How much could it compact things? 

I don't think your depth will decrease...but you may only add 2-4" instead of the 5-6" that you'd normally expect. 

But the good news is that the heavy/wet snow on top could act to protect the snow underneath, meaning better snow retention when the thaw comes.

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NOAA still says 8-9" in Brookings though not all the models agree. Here's a before pic of my backyard. You can see the drift goes up to the top of the neighbor's 6.5-7ish foot privacy fence. Actual snow depth is in the 25" range.

IMG_20190308_111801 (Large).jpg

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Going to be a nowcast for mby. 3km NAM wants to keep the warm nose overhead and cuts down significantly on totals with mixed precip for a few hours. 12z HRRR wants to change things all over to heavy snow after a brief mix of precip to start things off.  Anybody know if either model has a warm/cold bias or doesn’t handle mixing very well?

NWS seems to think the warm air issues will be just to my south and still expecting 6-8” for this area. 

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May briefly manage to change to snow this afternoon but I'm not counting on it. 34F and rain right now. 

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2 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

35 with heavy rain.  Utterly miserable.  Lots of standing water with the frozen ground.  

Pretty much a carbon copy up here. Losing a lot of precip to liquid and the roads are full of deep ponding water. Going to be a major bust here unless we change over soon. 

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Changed over to snow for an hour or so at the end. Didnt lose the snowpack which doesn’t bode well for getting too warm this next system 

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250 miles the last two days staying in Munising, MI. One more day tomorrow with some fresh powpow.

Let the storm pass and then take the drive back home.

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I gotta give some love to this one.  We didn't see a drop of liquid like they were forecasting.  NWS is blaming the stiff dry east wind all afternoon that kept dew points in the low 20s.  Snow/sleet started about 5:45 pm, intensity picked up half an hour later and by 6:45 pm it was CRAZY intense snow.  Gotta love 850 frontogenesis snow giving us an amazing band that dropped 2" in one hour.  But by 8 PM it was all done and now it's just light stuff now as I find myself smack dab in the central WI snow hole.  Wind died down quite a bit too.  Fingers crossed that the defo snow action picks up now. 

stc.gif.89fdaec03f2713a4d3709b2cf4cada1e.gif

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Got a 2.5” paste job so far with some light snow and drizzle. Don’t see how we get much past 4” let alone 6” for warning criteria, so going to be a bust here. Absolutely beautiful with snow coating every surface.

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36 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Got a 2.5” paste job so far with some light snow and drizzle. Don’t see how we get much past 4” let alone 6” for warning criteria, so going to be a bust here. Absolutely beautiful with snow coating every surface.

I noticed MSP was the last place in MN to change over.  Surprised at how long it took.  UHI influenced perhaps?  It was during the day and most areas getting snow were a degree or two above freezing as far as a could tell.

Getting optimistic for 6" here for my area.  Precip is becoming a bit better defined on the leading edge of the 700 circulation which is now in SW WI.  You can see the circulation quite well via the radar loops which is definitely not the surface low (which is over ORD).

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I picked up 0.50" of rain, short of what the models had been consistently spitting out.  It also was barely above freezing all day, so very little snow melted.

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Picked up 1.17" of rain off this one. Had some afternoon thunderstorms drop pea size hail yesterday. Lots of standing water and must creeks are bank full. 

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