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March 9-11 Winter Storm


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Have already conceded frozen precip potential with this system.  The big neg though is the fact that it looks like another cold rainer, as opposed to meaningful convective potential.  Lack of snow potential, and lack of even marginal convection makes this a benign time-wasting meh of a system.  Hopefully something of interest follows.  

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2 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Have already conceded frozen precip potential with this system.  The big neg though is the fact that it looks like another cold rainer, as opposed to meaningful convective potential.  Lack of snow potential, and lack of even marginal convection makes this a benign time-wasting meh of a system.  Hopefully something of interest follows.  

I wouldn't concede anything yet, though I'm not hugely optimistic.  All it would take is for the northern stream wave over the Canadian Prairies to be a little quicker (which is what the GFS was showing about 48 hours ago), less phasing, and you get a bowling ball storm instead with snow/mixed precip.

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Most models at the moment have the low traveling through Iowa this weekend.  The UKMET and ICON are the models that have the system way south, much weaker and slower arrival time (aka the models that paint a significant ice storm for Iowa).

EDIT: Navgem takes the low through Chicago, almost identical to the ICON.  Not as weak but I would imagine an icy scenario for Iowa.

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38 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

GFS taking a step southeast towards the Euro and throwing down 12- 13” imby. 

3627D88D-A17B-4ECE-904D-C761893E50AB.png

Definitely like the Euro. Same path as the last run but is colder farther south. I kinda want snow but this and the system after will make us have 8'' of water in the snow. Hell of a snowmelt would happen.

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8 hours ago, Minnesota_storms said:

Definitely like the Euro. Same path as the last run but is colder farther south. I kinda want snow but this and the system after will make us have 8'' of water in the snow. Hell of a snowmelt would happen.

Spring flood threat is going to be extreme around here. I fully expect soggy ground well into June....looking likely we will stay all or mostly frozen precip for this one. 

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12 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Remember when this was a guaranteed all-rainer for S. WI/IA/IL?

PepperidgeFarmStill.jpg

Yes but then the models went south and weaker.  If they go even further south then it's major ice storm territory.  The NAM has a big area of .50+ ice accumulation for much of Iowa, although much of that would be runoff.

 

And to add insult to injury, yet another storm system on Tuesday/Wednesday.  Looks to be mostly a rainer for this subforum but that could change.

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This looks like one of those (rather common) scenarios where, counterintuitively, a (relatively) weaker system leads to higher impact wx. There seems to be a point, usually around 990mb, where except in rare cases further deepening does more harm than good if you want to see winter and/or severe wx (at least when the SLP is still centered west of the MS river). Those "inland hurricanes" that are down in the low 980s or below typically just bring blustery cold rain to locations not on the Lakes, and the big time snow occurs in the northern Plains.

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