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Kmlwx

2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

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this storm belongs in the severe thread.  healthy wind, lightning, rain...total package.  hopefully others can cash in.

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3 hours ago, Zanclidae said:

I've been using Radarscope for nearly 10 years.  It's my go to.

Before it was developed for Android I used PYKL3 which I believe is abandonware at this point.  Too bad as it was better with overlays and customization.

On Windows I've used GRLevel2AE but that's been a while.  I usually roam around with either my 11" ipad pro or one of my other mobile devices.

I use RadarScope, as well, but I have no idea how to use most of the options/outputs on it. One thing I don’t like is the lack of a composite national radar, but for being able to view your local radar, it’s pretty great.

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Otw to the inner harbor for the night, let's see if I can bring some severe with me, lol. Guaranteed my house in Jersey gets rocked now though.

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

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SEL7
   0-CWZ000-010100-

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 547
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   115 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Connecticut
     District Of Columbia
     Delaware
     Massachusetts
     Eastern Maryland
     New Jersey
     Southeast New York
     Southeast Pennsylvania
     Rhode Island
     Northeast Virginia
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 115 PM
     until 900 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this
   afternoon within a warm/unstable air mass.  A few clusters of severe
   storms are expected to form, capable of locally damaging wind gusts.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
   statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles south southeast
   of Washington DC to 25 miles north northwest of Boston MA. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
   cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
   25030.

   ...Hart

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1 minute ago, yoda said:

STWatch in effect for I95 corridor and DCA/BWI metros until 9pm

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 547
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
115 PM EDT WED JUL 31 2019

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 547 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

VAC013-047-059-061-099-137-153-177-179-600-610-683-685-010100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0547.190731T1715Z-190801T0100Z/

VA
.    VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARLINGTON            CULPEPER            FAIRFAX
FAUQUIER             KING GEORGE         ORANGE
PRINCE WILLIAM       SPOTSYLVANIA        STAFFORD


VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

FAIRFAX              FALLS CHURCH        MANASSAS
MANASSAS PARK

 

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 547
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
115 PM EDT WED JUL 31 2019

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 547 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

MDC003-005-009-011-015-017-025-027-029-031-033-035-037-041-510-
010100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0547.190731T1715Z-190801T0100Z/

MD
.    MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANNE ARUNDEL         BALTIMORE           CALVERT
CAROLINE             CECIL               CHARLES
HARFORD              HOWARD              KENT
MONTGOMERY           PRINCE GEORGES      QUEEN ANNE`S
ST. MARYS            TALBOT


MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

BALTIMORE CITY

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Just now, dailylurker said:

Bump

Enhanced risk for tomorrow and it's crickets in here.

 

Guess they're all waiting for MOD risk upgrade?   Seriously, I agree - we don't get too many ENH risks (especially 1+ days in advance), this D2 outlook even mentions a TOR possibility if enough destabilization occurs.  Could be an interesting Tuesday.

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21 minutes ago, batmanbrad said:

 

Guess they're all waiting for MOD risk upgrade?   Seriously, I agree - we don't get too many ENH risks (especially 1+ days in advance), this D2 outlook even mentions a TOR possibility if enough destabilization occurs.  Could be an interesting Tuesday.

I didn't think that we usually saw that around here (I was just asking a little while ago about why we don't see "enhanced" that often!)

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Not a surprise seeing the upgrade to Enhanced given the look on the models the past 2 days.

I am slightly interested, but these threats rarely amount to much more than a gust of wind, some T&L, and maybe some heavy rain, outside of a few isolated areas. Need a derecho in these parts for something widespread.

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8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Not a surprise seeing the upgrade to Enhanced given the look on the models the past 2 days.

I am slightly interested, but these threats rarely amount to much more than a gust of wind, some T&L, and maybe some heavy rain, outside of a few isolated areas. Need a derecho in these parts for something widespread.

So you're saying that our "severe events" are usually way overhyped?

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1 hour ago, mattie g said:

So you're saying that our "severe events" are usually way overhyped?

People forget the ENH is just the old 30%.  We average between 1 and 3 ENH a year and it's been pretty quite this year even compared to our usual quietness so I wonder if folks are just starved for some action.

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Fun read

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Potentially volatile weather setup for Tuesday as a moderately
strong, neutrally-tilted/convectively-induced shortwave and
vorticity maxima approach the region. Upstream convective
evolution over the Midwest and Ohio Valley will dictate the
extent of cloud cover and subsequent destabilization locally on
Tuesday (leftover mid/high clouds and possibly a few showers may
move into the region Tuesday morning, depending on how things
unfold upstream today).

Lapse rates in the mid levels are expected to be modest (no
residual EML or anything like that), so CAPE will be strongly
reliant upon 1) the moist airmass and 2) daytime heating. Even
modest heating is expected to result in 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE, with
values of over 2000 J/kg most likely over the central Virginia
Piedmont which is least likely to see persistent/thicker cloud
cover on Tuesday. Attendant to the shortwave is a 850-500 hPa
speed max (35 kts at 850 hPa to 45 kts at 500 hPa). This is
expected to result in effective bulk shear of 30-40 kts,
sufficient for organized updrafts and even supercells given the
looping hodographs/backed low-level flow (southerly surface
winds, southwesterly 850 hPa winds, westerly 700-500 hPa winds).
The strongest mid-level flow is expected near the Mason-Dixon
line. If appreciable cloud cover persists between these two areas,
it is not unrealistic that a situation may arise in which convection
focuses in two corridors, one north of I-70 closer to better
synoptic forcing/lift and shear, and south of I-66 in the better
instability/thermodynamic environment. However, given the anomalous
flow/forcing aloft and at least modest instability, there appears to
be enough of a risk for most of the area to see at least scattered
instances of severe weather. The primary hazard appears to be
damaging winds, though a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out given low-
level shear (SRH 150-200). Some severe hail is possible in any more
persistent or discrete updrafts. Isolated instances of flooding are
also possible (see Hydrology section below for more).

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16 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

People forget the ENH is just the old 30%.  We average between 1 and 3 ENH a year and it's been pretty quite this year even compared to our usual quietness so I wonder if folks are just starved for some action.

AFD does mentions mid/high level clouds and maybe even some showers in the morning....we all know what that means in our area in terms of clearing out and maximizing day time heating. Typically never works in our favor lol

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Just now, jewell2188 said:

AFD does mentions mid/high level clouds and maybe even some showers in the morning....we all know what that means in our area in terms of clearing out and maximizing day time heating. Typically never works in our favor lol

Yup.  D2 ENH is the new D2 MOD in these parts...destined for failure.

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Just now, jewell2188 said:

AFD does mentions mid/high level clouds and maybe even some showers in the morning....we all know what that means in our area in terms of clearing out and maximizing day time heating. Typically never works in our favor lol

 

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Yup.  D2 ENH is the new D2 MOD in these parts...destined for failure.

And we have seen it work before in our area :axe:

 

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9 minutes ago, yoda said:

 

And we have seen it work before in our area :axe:

 

Well of course we have but how often lol. But who knows might wake up tomorrow to clear blue sky’s. 

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