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Kmlwx

2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

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36 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

I'm already at 87.6 degrees. Only 3 degrees shy of where I was yesterday at this time. I thought someone said yesterday that too much heat was bad and would cause storms to gust out? Which was news to me because I thought heat was good. Now today we need to be int he 90's again? Is there an optimal temp range for storms not to "gust out?" BTW, what does gust out mean lol 

              To add on to EJ's reply, my discussion of gusting out was related to tornado potential yesterday.      If you have a supercell and want it to make it to tornadogenesis, there has to be a balance between inflow and outflow.      If the PBL gets too hot and deeply mixed, you get a lot of  downdraft cape, meaning that the storm's downdraft can become very strong (rain falling into relatively dry air will evaporate, cooling the air, and forcing it to sink even more aggressively) and overwhelm the inflow.    Supercells that are outflow-dominant are way less likely to produce tornadoes.            Otherwise, you're right that sfc heating is a great thing for storms in general, as you're increasing instability.

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5 minutes ago, high risk said:

              To add on to EJ's reply, my discussion of gusting out was related to tornado potential yesterday.      If you have a supercell and want it to make it to tornadogenesis, there has to be a balance between inflow and outflow.      If the PBL gets too hot and deeply mixed, you get a lot of  downdraft cape, meaning that the storm's downdraft can become very strong (rain falling into relatively dry air will evaporate, cooling the air, and forcing it to sink even more aggressively) and overwhelm the inflow.    Supercells that are outflow-dominant are way less likely to produce tornadoes.            Otherwise, you're right that sfc heating is a great thing for storms in general, as you're increasing instability.

great explanation! 

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1 minute ago, mappy said:

confirmed tornadoes in PA yesterday

 

I'll give SPC credit, they're looking to be 2/2 with the tornado watches this week in PA.  

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6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I'll give SPC credit, they're looking to be 2/2 with the tornado watches this week in PA.  

SPC has been doing a pretty good job given the amount of severe weather the last two weeks. Its been a bit hectic. yes, i know most will say the High risk busted, but overall they are doing one heck of a job. 

I am even more impressed with offices like Kansas City that had a 30-40 minute warning ahead of the EF4 that was on the ground for over 30 miles, with only 18 injuries and no deaths. That's some good work. 

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Just now, mappy said:

SPC has been doing a pretty good job given the amount of severe weather the last two weeks. Its been a bit hectic. yes, i know most will say the High risk busted, but overall they are doing one heck of a job. 

I am even more impressed with offices like Kansas City that had a 30-40 minute warning ahead of the EF4 that was on the ground for over 30 miles, with only 18 injuries and no deaths. That's some good work. 

Agreed.  

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3 minutes ago, mappy said:

SPC has been doing a pretty good job given the amount of severe weather the last two weeks. Its been a bit hectic. yes, i know most will say the High risk busted, but overall they are doing one heck of a job. 

I am even more impressed with offices like Kansas City that had a 30-40 minute warning ahead of the EF4 that was on the ground for over 30 miles, with only 18 injuries and no deaths. That's some good work. 

          Absolutely,    The warnings in the Dayton area from the Wilmington, OH WFO Monday night were fantastic too.

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9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:
 Related 40-50+ kt of effective bulk shear will act
   to organize thunderstorms, and there is increasing concern that
   convection will grow upscale into a QLCS along/near the I-95
   corridor in northern VA, MD, and eastern PA. Damaging winds would be
   the main threat if this mainly linear mode develops, although
   isolated large hail may occur with more discrete initial
   development. The potential for a tornado or two may also exist,
   mainly across eastern PA into NJ where low-level flow will be
   slightly more backed to southerly/southeasterly in the vicinity of a
   marine front.

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6 minutes ago, high risk said:

          Absolutely,    The warnings in the Dayton area from the Wilmington, OH WFO Monday night were fantastic too.

Agreed. I've been mapping tornadoes for almost a decade and i have to say, seeing very limited injuries and deaths, with such a large scale tornado sequence, is really impressive. 

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3 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

New SPC Day 1 moved teh 5% tor risk into mostly SPA and NJ with NEMD included as well. They also yanked the 15% hail completely - now 5%. 

HRRR seems pretty meh now too. Im out. 

Yea it would be fitting to get a watch and nothing happen.  Back to the classic DC severe fail.

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1 minute ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

I am thinking they may not even pull the trigger lol

Yea it wouldn't surprise me if they didn't.  This is pretty meh today.

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its like winter all over again with people giving up before anything happens

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2 hours ago, high risk said:

              To add on to EJ's reply, my discussion of gusting out was related to tornado potential yesterday.      If you have a supercell and want it to make it to tornadogenesis, there has to be a balance between inflow and outflow.      If the PBL gets too hot and deeply mixed, you get a lot of  downdraft cape, meaning that the storm's downdraft can become very strong (rain falling into relatively dry air will evaporate, cooling the air, and forcing it to sink even more aggressively) and overwhelm the inflow.    Supercells that are outflow-dominant are way less likely to produce tornadoes.            Otherwise, you're right that sfc heating is a great thing for storms in general, as you're increasing instability.

Thank you both!

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First SVR...imagine the watch can't be far behind:

Quote
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
145 PM EDT THU MAY 30 2019

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND...
  NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...
  NORTHEASTERN BERKELEY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 230 PM EDT.

* AT 144 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MARTINSBURG,
  MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

  IMPACT...DAMAGING WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME TREES AND LARGE BRANCHES 
           TO FALL. THIS COULD INJURE THOSE OUTDOORS, AS WELL AS 
           DAMAGE HOMES AND VEHICLES. ROADWAYS MAY BECOME BLOCKED BY 
           DOWNED TREES. LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. 
           UNSECURED LIGHT OBJECTS MAY BECOME PROJECTILES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MARTINSBURG, SHEPHERDSTOWN, BOONSBORO, MOUNT LENA, SAN MAR, SAINT
  JAMES, BERKELEY, KEEDYSVILLE, FALLING WATERS, SHARPSBURG, FAIRPLAY,
  HEDGESVILLE, ROHRERSVILLE, GAPLAND, ANTIETAM, WINEBRENNERS CROSS,
  TOMAHAWK, JOHNSONTOWN, MOLER CROSSROADS AND JONES SPRINGS.

 

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17 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

I just want some rain. Seems like even that's a challenge. 

Ya didn't get enough over the 365+ days of pure soakage we just went through? Lol

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Here are some pics from yesterday to keep us occupied while we wait. There was possibly a brief rain-wrapped waterspout. It is difficult to ascertain the peak intensity of this particular storm. Winds gusted to about 45mph on shore with visibility dropping to 1/8 mile.

(Looking west towards Delaware 5/29/19)

IMG_20190529_195007415.thumb.jpg.7d71e5df4ce87cefac0a667fdf993bac.jpgIMG_20190529_195004793.thumb.jpg.3914458cbcd12eb589bba744e4f38105.jpgIMG_20190529_194422450.thumb.jpg.9c3401d0b3783d98726cc691b2716454.jpgIMG_20190529_193724842.thumb.jpg.b26d67995a2aeb8c80e5b1605c47c6a0.jpg

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ya didn't get enough over the 365+ days of pure soakage we just went through? Lol

I have new baby grass I'm trying to grow. lol  Soon as I put it down, my backyard goes through all these misses. lol  But looking at the radar, my little dry spell may be over. I need a good soaking. Maybe 1.5 inches to be safe. GRowing cell by Front Royal may be the money cell for DC. 

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Look like I’m in the direct path of the warned cell. Hoping for a good show...plenty of T&L on the leading edge so far.

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