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2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

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It will clear off at 2 pm and the sun will help fire up a small line that misses mattie g's crib

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and never go against clouds.  Clouds are the strongest card you can get in Hearthstone.  And Pokemon.  And D&D.  And the Fog.  Clouds kill

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11 minutes ago, H2O said:

and never go against clouds.  Clouds are the strongest card you can get in Hearthstone.  And Pokemon.  And D&D.  And the Fog.  Clouds kill

I'm going to use a D20 for a saving roll for severe weather this afternoon

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I was 45 min early.  Filtered sun now.  Its on like Donkey Kong

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8 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

 day1otlk_1630.gif

Worst forecast bust ever. Pretty much went from ENH to MRGL in just 12 hours.

I once saw them up forecasted snow totals from 6 inches to 24 inches in 8 hours, and then we wound up getting nothing due to marginal temperatures lol. I don't think they will ever have a bigger forecast bust than that. 

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2 hours ago, H2O said:

and never go against clouds.  Clouds are the strongest card you can get in Hearthstone.  And Pokemon.  And D&D.  And the Fog.  Clouds kill

Can picture you as a D & D guy... but Pokemon? :whistle:

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Writing was on the wall last night for this to underperform. The Ohio Valley shortwave was much farther south and less robust than CAMs guidance showed 24 hours ago. GFS actually caught on to this first followed by the HRRR and finally the NAM. Persistent cloud cover has greatly limited our instability - CAPE is less than 1000 J/KG for most N of DC at the moment. For southern Virginia, though, where there has been clearing, CAPE is over 3000 J/KG and there is sufficient speed and directional shear to support isolated supercells. However, the total coverage will be far less than what we expected 24 hours ago.

Unfortunately, this scenario plays out time and time again in this region. I was really looking forward to chasing today after work, oh well :mellow:

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1 hour ago, Steve25 said:

I once saw them up forecasted snow totals from 6 inches to 24 inches in 8 hours, and then we wound up getting nothing due to marginal temperatures lol. I don't think they will ever have a bigger forecast bust than that. 

Are you forgetting about the March 4-6 2001 ultimate bust?? We went from being forecasted 24-36”+ to zippy in about 8 hours...

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5 minutes ago, wdavis5784 said:

Are you forgetting about the March 4-6 2001 ultimate bust?? We went from being forecasted 24-36”+ to zippy in about 8 hours...

You have mentioned the Storm That Must Not Be Named :( 

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10 minutes ago, wdavis5784 said:

Are you forgetting about the March 4-6 2001 ultimate bust?? We went from being forecasted 24-36”+ to zippy in about 8 hours...

Lots of school kid snow day dreams were dashed during the March 2017 snowstorm down here.

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2 hours ago, JakkelWx said:

 day1otlk_1630.gif

Worst forecast bust ever. Pretty much went from ENH to MRGL in just 12 hours.

Yeah I don't get that...did they not factor in cloudy skies in the forecast yesterday? Or were they simply basing it on what it was doing in Tennessee and such?

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah I don't get that...did they not factor in cloudy skies in the forecast yesterday? Or were they simply basing it on what it was doing in Tennessee and such?

I think they were basing it on Tennessee too much and not enough of the cloud cover. Based on looking at yesterday evening's satellite, the cloud debris was gonna be a problem and they missed it.

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1 hour ago, JakkelWx said:

I think they were basing it on Tennessee too much and not enough of the cloud cover. Based on looking at yesterday evening's satellite, the cloud debris was gonna be a problem and they missed it.

Now was the cloud debris a result of those storms out there in TN or was it something else?

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5 hours ago, JakkelWx said:

 day1otlk_1630.gif

Worst forecast bust ever. Pretty much went from ENH to MRGL in just 12 hours.

Just like June 13, 2013 when we went from D1 MOD to nada in 2 hours.  Moco had a tornado but that was it. 

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25 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

This little rotating storm out here looks interesting! Looks to be rotating. Not great structure.. but maybe it will get its act together or fall apart. 

intersting.gif

Just got a SVR (#532 for LWX this calendar year).

Quote
ULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
209 PM EDT THU AUG 15 2019

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN LOUDOUN COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...
  NORTH CENTRAL FAUQUIER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 300 PM EDT.

* AT 208 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MIDDLEBURG,
  OR 15 MILES WEST OF BRAMBLETON, MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

  IMPACT...DAMAGING WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME TREES AND LARGE BRANCHES 
           TO FALL. THIS COULD INJURE THOSE OUTDOORS, AS WELL AS 
           DAMAGE HOMES AND VEHICLES. ROADWAYS MAY BECOME BLOCKED BY 
           DOWNED TREES. LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. 
           UNSECURED LIGHT OBJECTS MAY BECOME PROJECTILES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MIDDLEBURG, OATLANDS, SAINT LOUIS, GLEEDSVILLE, ALDIE, PHILOMONT
  AND HUGHESVILLE.

 

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That's a legit little cell in Loudoun...probably riding the terrain and some differential heating boundary.  Seems like there's more clearing over NOVA than the MD side of the Potomac.

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It looks like a legit right moving, low topped supercell.  Even the 0.5° BV has 50Kt winds right off the deck.  Impressive.

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